Optical Switch Market Faces Slow Start

Pioneer Consulting LLC has revised its forecast for optical switches sharply downwards, following a new round of interviews with carriers.

It now expects the market to total a mere $400 million next year, almost half its original forecast. After a couple of years, however, sales will take off, reaching $7 billion in 2004, says Scott Clavenna, Pioneer’s principal analyst.

The main reason for this is that telecom operators are buying smaller scale switches than expected, according to Clavenna. They’re also likely to spend a long period evaluating hardware and software before taking the plunge in a big way, he adds.

If carriers wanted big switches, they wouldn’t be able to get them anyhow at present. Vendors have only got as far as making small switches, and commercial shipments have hardly begun (see Sycamore Ships Its Optical Switch).

By Peter Heywood, international editor, Light Reading http://www.lightreading.com

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