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The ATCA Split

Craig Matsumoto

4:00 PM -- SAN JOSE, Calif. -- AdvancedTCA (ATCA) could be a $6.8 billion market by 2012, counting application-ready platforms only, according to Simon Stanley, Heavy Reading analyst and principal of Earlswood Marketing Ltd.

The forecast was part of Stanley's introductory talk at today's Light Reading ATCA and Communications Ecosystems Conference.

You'll notice a recession discount in there, because $6.8 billion is down slightly from the $7.2 billion forecast Stanley presented a year ago. It still represents 93 percent annual growth, up from a base of around $587 million in 2008 sales. (See ATCA Takeoff Is Imminent.)

What matters is that the number is big -- and that only about half of it will go to the merchant ATCA vendors. Stanley is predicting $3 billion of that $6.8 billion market will consist of ATCA systems that equipment vendors chose to build in-house.

That could be a challenge for the ATCA integrators like Continuous Computing Corp. , Emerson Electric Co. , Kontron AG , Radisys Corp. (Nasdaq: RSYS), and Sun Microsystems Inc. -- soon to be Oracle Corp. (Nasdaq: ORCL). (See ATCA: Homegrown or Third Party?) As Stanley noted, the exact breakdown of that $6.8 billion will be determined by the worthiness that ATCA products demonstrate and the attitudes of the large equipment vendors.

Maybe that's no cause for worry. Eric Gregory, ATCA product manager at RadiSys, rebutted with the examples of two customers that did one-off ATCA projects, rush jobs by systems-design standards (12 or 15 months from idea to carrying live traffic). Both companies are now starting common-platform initiatives in-house, using ATCA. RadiSys benefitted from all this, obviously, but so did the partners that RadiSys brought into all these projects -- Gregory's point being that there'll be money to go 'round.

— Craig Matsumoto, West Coast Editor, Light Reading

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