What to expect from MWC Barcelona 2024

The global wireless industry's annual confab is set to start next week in Barcelona, Spain. The event is widely viewed as the biggest on the industry's calendar and generally acts as a giant sounding board for what's hot and what's not in wireless.

GSMA – the trade association that organizes the event – expects 2024 to continue a post-pandemic recovery trend. The association is expecting 95,000 attendees, up from 88,000 last year. 

While that figure is down from the 109,000 people who attended the show in 2019 prior to the COVID-19 pandemic – the largest ever attendance of the event – it's certainly up from the 61,000 who went to the show in 2022.

But what's on the MWC schedule? What will attendees be talking about at the show? A quick survey of analyst firms including STL Partners, Omdia, PP Foresight and CCS Insight reveals that AI is expected to drive most of the discussions at the show this year.

1. AI and AI and AI

"AI will be an important focus for operators," Kester Mann, a CCS analyst, said, and others agreed.

"Telcos have focused the bulk AI investment on network optimization and customer care/experience use cases," explained the analysts at Omdia, a sister company to Light Reading. "MWC will see telcos move beyond this, looking at how AI can improve enterprise and consumer service offerings, for example in the consumer domain how AI can improve cloud gaming and video services."

None of this comes as a surprise, of course. Companies in the wireless industry ranging from Verizon to Cisco have made AI a major talking point. And vendors including Ericsson and Nokia are keen to use AI to improve their products. 

The real question, according to the analysts at STL Partners, is whether it's all going to be too much. "Are we coming out of the [AI] hype cycle and, if so, will there be practical examples of telcos gaining benefits from it, or will we start seeing the trough of disillusionment?" they wrote.

2. Network APIs

The GSMA announced its Open Gateway initiative at last year's MWC. In the intervening months, companies including Ericsson, Nokia, Verizon and DT have pledged to develop application programming interfaces (APIs) into their networks.

By doing so, they hope to encourage developers to invent new, network-based applications for enterprises.

Now, according to the STL Partners analysts, it's time for operators to show practical demonstrations at MWC of their Open Gateway efforts.

"Overall, this whole area around APIs is providing some excitement and interest," summarized PP Foresight analyst Paolo Pescatore.

3. Spatial computing

"Spatial computing" is the term that Apple is using for its new Vision Pro virtual reality (VR) goggles. Apple hopes the term will replace "metaverse," which is championed by Meta, maker of the rival Oculus VR goggles.

CCS Insight analyst Leo Gebbie expects Vision Pros to be on hand at MWC as "stand candy" to entice show attendees into vendors' booths. After all, he noted, the gadget hasn't yet gone on sale in Europe.

More broadly, Vision Pro and other "face computers" are expected to eventually usher in a new age of VR and augmented reality (AR) services. That would likely cheer the network operators tasked with delivering content to those kinds of gadgets.

"Apple prioritizes transformative outcomes over early launches, as seen with the successes of iPod, iPhone and Apple Watch," wrote the Omdia analysts. "Apple's long-term success isn't guaranteed, but its unique strengths bolster its chances. Undoubtedly, key players in the tech and telecoms sectors will be closely monitoring the Apple Vision Pro's progress in 2024."

They added: "Omdia anticipates broader industry adoption of the 'spatial computing' term."

4. Open RAN

After years of fits and starts, open RAN technology has taken a step forward in recent months following AT&T's historic $14 billion agreement with Ericsson for open RAN equipment.

"As open RAN enters production (yes, for real), how has the conversation changed?" wrote the STL Partners analysts. "Has the AT&T/Ericsson deal changed rekindled interest?"

However, some have criticized operators like AT&T and Vodafone for pursuing open RAN with equipment from just one big, established vendor.

"Not being fully open and multi-vendor from day 1, may be seen as a defeat by some open RAN supporters, but AT&T and Vodafone show that a single vendor open RAN approach facilitates adoption. Omdia believes open RAN will be less disruptive than expected in terms of vendor diversity but will see more commercial adoption than anticipated. Not everyone agrees, but this debate will play out at MWC," the firm wrote.

5. The fair share debate

During last year's MWC, network operators renewed their calls for big content companies like Netflix to pay for the delivery of their content. This debate over a "fair share" of the Internet's transport costs continues to circle among European regulators.

"Fuel to the fire is being provided by the European Commission, which is reportedly considering making it compulsory for big tech firms to help fund 5G rollouts. This is potentially a significant step to support the position of the likes of Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefónica and Telecom Italia," Pescatore wrote.

But CCS Insight's Mann said he hopes that operators' complaints about the "fair share" topic don't weigh too heavily on the MWC show.

He added that there will likely be some discussion over whether international regulators will be more favorable to big industry mergers and other consolidation, as the wireless industry increasingly struggles with sluggish growth.

6. Energy efficiency

Energy efficiency has been a major talking point at MWC for several years now. That's a result of companies' desire to cut energy costs and to be viewed as more green and less wasteful.

"Sustainability conversations are likely to be brought into keen focus by the ongoing Catalonian drought. The Catalan government declared a drought emergency at the start of February after 40 months of below-average rainfall, and Fira Barcelona has drained lakes, turned off ornamental fountains, removed water fountains, and instigated water-saving measures throughout the building and with key suppliers, such as on-site catering," Pescatore wrote.

And the Omdia analysts said they expect network operators to also talk about ethics around data and AI as they focus on corporate responsibilities. 

7. 5G-Advanced and 6G

According to CCS analyst Ian Fogg, the perception of 5G may be somewhat damaged as it's not delivering the huge growth that network operators had hoped for. But the situation is changing as speedy midband 5G networks support services like fixed wireless, he added.

"Data consumption is still growing," he said. Meaning, "sooner or later the operators will have to invest" in their networks in order to keep pace with customers' data demands, he explained.

As a result, vendors will likely tout their latest products for 5G-Advanced at MWC. As Light Reading previously reported, "5G-Advanced" is the brand name selected by the 3GPP for its Release 18 standards. The 3GPP is the primary standards group developing 5G technologies. It issues packages, or releases, of specifications for new wireless networking technologies roughly once a year.

And beyond 5G-Advanced, "attention is quickly switching to 6G," Pescatore wrote. "It is early days with the technology, and there's a prevailing sense that any movement in this space is effectively an attempted land grab as companies jostle for position," he added.

8. Private wireless

Some of the near-term 5G opportunities may sit with private wireless networks, according to Mann. Such networks promise to repurpose public 5G equipment from big vendors to smaller enterprises hoping to build their own private networks.

Already a number of companies have said they plan to show off new private 5G products at MWC.

However, there appears to be a growing understanding that the private wireless networking opportunity may not be as big as some in the industry once believed.

9. Satellites

Apple kicked off the market for satellite/smartphone connectivity with its Globalstar agreement for the iPhone 14. Since then, companies ranging from T-Mobile to AST SpaceMobile have pledged similar offerings.

CCS analyst Luke Pearce pointed out, however, that the sector remains in turmoil, after Qualcomm's deal with Iridium for phone-to-satellite connections collapsed last year.

Even so, satellites are being integrated into the specifications for 5G technology. As a result, there's a good chance a range of companies at MWC will discuss how they plan to integrate satellites into telecom network topology.

10. Gadgets beyond phones

Smartphones remain the primary driver for mobile connections. But that doesn't mean they're the only gadgets that will use mobile networks. Tablets, laptops and newer automobiles do today, and VR goggles like the Vision Pro might in the future.

CCS Insight's Gebbie pointed to whole new categories of devices hitting the market that may also spark demand for mobile networks. One such category is AI-centric digital assistants like the Humane pin and the Rabbit R1. Another is connected rings, which can track users' health and behavior.

Gebbie said MWC is no longer dominated by gadget news the way it has been in the past. But he still expects such devices to generate interest at the show.