LR Poll: Capex to Crash in '09

Global carrier capital expenditure will fall significantly during 2009, with many in the industry believing the year-on-year drop will be greater than 10 percent.

That's according to the early results from our new reader poll, Capex Crunch, which asks for your views on how global capex will be affected by the current economic climate.

So far, 39 percent of respondents believe global carrier capex will decline by more than 10 percent, while a further 23 percent believe it will fall by between 6 percent and 10 percent.

According to Infonetics Research Inc. , global carrier capex was set to hit $275 billion in 2008. In November, the research firm predicted that figure would fall by 2 percent in 2009. (See Capex Watch: Expect Shrinkage in 2009.)

Not everyone is singing from the capex reduction song sheet, though, as 5 percent of respondents believe carriers will spend more this year than in 2008.

Maybe they work for Canadian operator Telus Corp. (NYSE: TU; Toronto: T), which is planning to increase its capex by about 12 percent, to more than $2 billion this year. (See Telus Sets 2009 Targets.)

Telus is an exception to the rule, though. Most carrier forecasts involve a cut in spending, and that's leading to some doom and gloom among many vendors. (See Nokia Siemens Braced for Tough 2009, Verwaayen Unveils AlcaLu's New Plan , More Russian Capex Cuts, Capex Watch: Telecom Italia Plans Cuts, Sizing Up AT&T's Cuts (and Chops) , and Ciena: This Ain't No 2001!)

Of course, there are some equipment firms that expect to benefit more than most from 3G rollouts in China and India, and so expect their sales to grow this year. (See Huawei Predicts 29% Growth in 2009, China's 3G Move to Trigger Spending, Huawei, ZTE Predict 2009 Growth, and Emerging Markets Offer Capex Hope.)

Click on this link to add your vote to the poll and see the latest results.

— Ray Le Maistre, International News Editor, Light Reading

Creagh 12/5/2012 | 4:14:34 PM
re: LR Poll: Capex to Crash in '09 There needs to be a radical reduction in carrier CAPEX/OPEX through new innovative network. The only solutions that appear to be viable are both based on the use of Optical Burst Switching techniques - Intune Networks for Telecoms and Matisse Networks for Enterprise.
bollocks187 12/5/2012 | 4:14:32 PM
re: LR Poll: Capex to Crash in '09 Well if MATISSE could hire some people that new something about the "network" they may have a chance.

Creagh 12/5/2012 | 4:14:31 PM
re: LR Poll: Capex to Crash in '09 I do know that Intune Networks has serious Telecoms talent - ex Nortel, Tellabs, Ericcson, Alcatel etc. Not sure about Matisse but they appear to be developing a solution for enterprise ? but maybe trying to address a carrier market in parallel with an enterprise solution ??
boozon 12/5/2012 | 4:14:29 PM
re: LR Poll: Capex to Crash in '09 can you say more about the "new paradigm" you're alluding at?
From the Intune web site it's hard to understand what they're developing and how it differentiates from the exiting telecom products...


PS: "Intune has serious Telecom talent - ex Nortel, Tellabs, Ericsson, Alcatel, etc." No doubts about that but so do Nortel, Tellabs, Ericsson, Alcatel, etc., don't they? Given that our industry shed off plenty of jobs since the implosion of the internet bubble, the world is full of ex-something!
bollocks187 12/5/2012 | 4:14:28 PM
re: LR Poll: Capex to Crash in '09 My guess is 'low cost tunable laser technology"

Commenting on the restructuring, John Dunne, founder and chief marketing officer said, GǣAs the technology has matured over the past 9 years, we are now in a position to offer a technology transfer program with long-term licensing agreements to our lead customers. This will be completed on a first come, first served basis out to the end of this year.Gǥ

Car Salesman anyone ?

Creagh 12/5/2012 | 4:14:27 PM
re: LR Poll: Capex to Crash in '09 Intune have designed a metro domain system (yes utilising tunable lasers)that dematerialises the network, introduces massive CAPEX/OPEX cost reductions combined with a massive uplift in network performance to Terabit scale. Major carriers are well briefed on the new network. You will need to make contact with the company directly - given that their web site does not reveal the full extent of the solution for their own reasons I guess. It is a well known secret though.
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