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Optical components

Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

Enablence Technologies Inc. (Toronto: ENA) shares have climbed 65 percent in two days, but some investors might be overestimating the Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC) win that apparently spurred this outburst.

Enablence reported on Wednesday that its photodiodes have been chosen for use in Intel's Light Peak modules -- the 10-Gbit/s optical interconnect for PCs. Light Peak is intended to be a universal replacement for USB, Firewire, and other interconnects.

Here's the interesting part. Analyst Daniel Kim of Paradigm Capital Inc. , one of the firms that underwrote Enablence's IPO, wrote in a report issued today that Enablence's "contribution to Light Peak will amount to approximately $10-12 per PC."

Enablence's shares had already risen about 26 percent the day after the Intel announcement. But today, possibly on the strength of Kim's report, Enablence climbed another 18 cents (55 percent) to 51 cents per share. That's a 96 percent gain in two days.

But is $10 to $12 per PC realistic? Light Reading ran that figure past some experts and got the phone equivalent of a funny look.

"I don't know about anything double digits" inside a Light Peak module, says Richard Doherty, an analyst with The Envisioneering Group and a longtime follower of Intel. "These speeds don't require one-photon sensitivity photodiodes, or the kind of x-ray photodiodes NASA uses."

One source familiar with optical components pricing puts photodetectors, even 10-Gbit/s ones, at between 50 cents and $1. "And if you're going to see volume, the price is going to come down."

Neither source thinks Intel needs a high-end photodetector for Light Peak. Moreover, if it's a commodity photodetector that Enablence is providing, then the company is likely to face long-term competition from bigger, higher-volume competitors.

Intel wouldn't comment when asked about the likely price of a Light Peak module, but given that it's meant for PCs, it can't be very high. Or, to put it another way: If Enablence's piece alone is going to cost Intel $10, that bodes ill for the total cost of Light Peak.

"I think their goal was to be in the low tens of dollars and to have that drop over time. USB 1.0 started in the low tens of dollars," Doherty says.

Even 50 cents per PC could be a good haul for Enablence. Kim estimates 112 million desktop PCs will get sold in 2010 -- based on the 337 million total PCs that Gartner expects will ship. But not every PC is built with Intel inside (blasphemy, we know) and it's probable that not every PC will have Light Peak. Moreover, Light Peak, which hasn't begun shipping, won't reach real volumes until 2011.

Given all the question marks, Kim's report doesn't give a specific estimate for how much the Intel deal is worth to Enablence. He didn't change his forecast, which calls for Enablence to see revenues of $45.2 million this year, $64.9 million in 2010, and $104 million in 2011.

Enablence officials and Kim couldn't immediately be reached for comment.

— Craig Matsumoto, West Coast Editor, Light Reading

danp5648 12/5/2012 | 3:50:32 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

September 23 Intel Demo'ed Enablence's Technology to the world and the stock continued to fall all the way to down .22 cents a share.  On November 25th a new document was included on to Enablence's website called the PDCS60T-USB  10 Gb/s InGaAs Photodiode.


September 23 Intel Demo Enablence Technology to the world
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izNoF1SWtSg&NR=1



A back-to-back comparison, it also shows two not just one but two PDCS60T-USB working side by side.


http://www.investingnideas.com...


The next day Enablence announced product and relationship details with Intel and the stock continued to trade at a all time low of .22 cents, it was until the following day December 3 2009 did volume and price begin to change.

<h1>During the recent Intel Developer Forum, Intel unveiled Light Peak, a 10-Gbps optical interconnect for PCs that will use photodiodes, including Enablence's large-area, dual-wavelength 10-Gbps photodiodes, for its build.
</h1>
<h1>Jason Ziller, director, Optical I/O Program Office, Intel Corp., said that the company is pleased to be working with Enablence to make LightPeak optical components ready to ship in 2010</h1>

If you study other Light Peak press releases from Avago, IPtronics and Oclaro


No where does Jason make a direct comment about a company or a product until now. Also note the Apple OS at Demo #2.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khPx1dEIPnA


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deauxfaux 12/5/2012 | 3:50:59 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

Tomato. This was the funniest series of posts that I've seen out of you yet. Obviously you are either a company shill or another grey-shoed-Members-Only-jacketed boiler room broker sitting in a folding chair somewhere in Brooklyn.


Polder's comments on who's left from W7 are dead-on. The ringmasters have left, the clowns are asleep and the animals are now in charge of the circus.


Lever up, write a BIG check&nbsp;and help Arvind's band of "technologists"&nbsp;rid the world of those Tomato Onion cans once and for all. Intel is bound to pay $100 for the privilege of buying one of Arvind's photodiodes! The stock is going to soar! Everyone will think you are a genius!


....or Lightreading will use your face as the image of the mascot....if PETA will let them


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Tesla_x 12/5/2012 | 3:51:02 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

" Calix, Occam, and Adtran are dominating the tier two, tier three FTTH market in the US. ENA continues to do well internationally, and that is due to the staff they have handling that market."


Given the size of the Canadian Stim relative to the US Stim, and the now larger Obama attention on rolling out broadband, it will be VERY INTERESTING to see how these companies do in terms of Canadian Stim, and more so, US Stim share.



OCNW, it seems, has been gaining quite the following in ENA territory up north...and has recently put more sales focus abroad in EMEA.&nbsp; All this in a cash rich, no debt, cash flow neutral, healthy margin position with a squeaky clean balance sheet (finally).


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By comparison, as best I can tell, Calix (as of the recent S-1 revelations), ENA and to a lesser extend Zhne are all in some way or another BLEEDING CASH and are burdened with not insignificant DEBT of one kind or another.


Not a good way to start a growth intensive race for stim share, since a strong balance sheet, lack of share dilution and the ability to get more working capital may be KEY to absorbing more business and boosting EPS.


Suffice to say, the next 2-3 years will be very interesting, entertaining and probably profitable for those who have chosen the best positioned, conditioned and rested 'horse' for the race to come.


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Interesting thread too, the patience and cool-headedness of some long-timers here is amazing.&nbsp; Makes me wonder why the LR board dosen't have an IGNORE button for posters that insist on using personal insults as a primary mode of communication...


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Polder 12/5/2012 | 3:51:06 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence Wow, that extra two cents must warrant a special Christmas. Please illuminate me where I am wrong in any of the comments in the previous post. I would be interested hear what you can refute. In addition, I joined the board on 7/24/2007 as Polder and have maintained that name (and no others) since that date.

Enablence Technologies Inc. (ENA:CA) -¬ quotemedia.com

Last Price 0.55
Change 0.02
Day High 0.57
Bid 0.54
Ask 0.55
Dividend 0.00
Last Trade 11:48
% Change 3.77%
Day Low 0.54
Bid Size 19000
AskSize 500
Ex-Div Date N/A
Tick
Open 0.54
52 Wk Hi 0.71
EPS(TTM) -0.37
Shares 254,732,805
Yield 0.00
Volume 299.3 k
Prev Close 0.53
52 Wk Low 0.22
PE Ratio N/A
Market Cap close Exchange Information
Listed On
TSX Venture Exchange (CDX)140.1 m
Exchange CDX
Polder 12/5/2012 | 3:51:08 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence Danp, again you have missed my point. I was offering to buy you 10 shares of ENA if they showed a profit by April. Your stock acumen is as adept as your choice of an alias on this site. I got curious about you as you continue to resort to name calling when someone disagrees with you. I am neither a "moron" or a "bitch". I was surprised to read you graduated from college in 1996, I had you pegged as being MUCH younger. As for ENA, I suggest you exercise some more diligence. Tom Tighe, who founded W7 with six others and was the CEO, has left ENA. Four of the other founders have either left or retired. Tom Tighe has been replaced by Michael Skubisz who was Pannaways Chief Technologist and who is now running the access side of ENA. You could confirm this by a quick check of their website. Mark Carpenter, VP of Sales at Pannaway, well, last time I checked, he was running the domestic sales team for ENA. Only one of the ex-W7 sales guys remains on the domestic ENA sales staff. The remaining sales staff worked for Pannaway. The recent layoff's/reorganizations have impacted the Alpharetta office of W7 much more than the Pannaway staff. Pannaways engineering and marketing team are more or less intact. Most of the W7 staff has departed. From where I sit, it gives every appearance that the Pannaway staff is in charge of the remains of W7. As I don't have a dog in this fight, I dont much care one way or the other except that it is sad to see the promising future that W7 had fade away. Calix, Occam, and Adtran are dominating the tier two, tier three FTTH market in the US. ENA continues to do well internationally, and that is due to the staff they have handling that market. International is the one hole in Calix's account portfolio. From what I can see via trade shows, it appears that ENA has focused on selling the MAGN product line domestically and the Trident7 product internationally. I imagine this is a decision based on embedded customer bases. It will be interesting to see how it plays out but again, look at their balance sheet and draw you own conclusions. It is better to be thought a fool than open ones mouth and remove all doubt. I may well be wrong but I suspect the future will validate my opinion. Opinion, my opinion alone, is based on my interpetation of the facts as I view them. No more, no less. If that makes me a moron, than that it my own issue.
Larry, Monkey 12/5/2012 | 3:51:08 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

Mind your manners, danp, or you'll have to go away.


Thanks.

danp5648 12/5/2012 | 3:51:08 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

I am not missing your point by re-explaining to you the points that you are not understanding. Also the concept of SHORT and LONG is missing in your portfolio. The domestic sales team for ENA is a nightmare, I agree. I would not use those words except "moron" only because it fits you so well considering the logical conundrum I am facing (re-read the above statements) . btw, your medication seems to working, but slowly you begin to loose it. Case in point, you are beginning to make things up in order to change reality to fit your own needs to make negitive judgements about others. Then, like before, you start "researching" your target which begins a uncontrollable loop which branches out in all directions until a professional dials you back in. You keep changing your alias because of your lack of control in keeping a sound mind. Soon you will be another alias, but the patterns will remain, which is your prison.&nbsp; Respect thine enemy will prove fruitful.

danp5648 12/5/2012 | 3:51:09 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

No I said buy 10 shares SHORT not 10 shares LONG you moron. The difference is shares SHORT turns into a financial blackhole if shares go up and limited gain if the shares go down. And NO Pannawayis not running the access side, the TUTOR wins where based on the TRIDENT7 Universal Access Platform, Optical Line Terminals, Optical Networking Terminals and the Element Management Suite (well maybe inside the US) The "Verizon sales" stuff was only an FYI not meant to be anything else, If anyone has details let me know. "E" was up 30.86% today anyone do any better? Yet me know!&nbsp;


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Polder 12/5/2012 | 3:51:09 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence You have a deal, in April I will forego a McDonalds Happy Meal and get you ten shares if they are profitable. I woul dnot suggest holding your breath in the meantime. While Arvind may have 6.7M shares in stock, I doubt he is paying for many, if any, of them. Also, I have not been yelling about this, I have just been pointing out the facts. I wish them the best but the financials predict a grim future. It is not a question of whether their performance is up to my standards, it is a question of how the market evaluates their performance. When it comes to money, the market can be a cruel mistress. The Pannaway mafia is now running the access side at ENA and that does not bode will for future performance.
danp5648 12/5/2012 | 3:51:10 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

OK then short some shares then. How about 10 shares? April is the next time they report (after December 16)&nbsp; so given the time lag til then I am sure he already knows the results. Oppenheimer is in for&nbsp; 17,000,000 shares as of 2009-10-28 and the CEO is in for 6.7 million shares as of 2009. I call that pretty good buying activity. Well lets hope for the best. ENA is up 20.99% today. On December 16th we will see. Can you hold off any replies until then? Why don't you call them on 17th at 1-800-396-7098 starting at 14:00. You can yell at them all you want if the results are not up your standards. Works for me.


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reese_lightening 12/5/2012 | 3:51:10 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence Funny how danp5648 complety ignored the comment "BTW, how are all the Verizon sales you touted last December working out for ENA?"

The value of one's predictions can only be judged on the accuracy of past predictions?
Polder 12/5/2012 | 3:51:13 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence Good Lord Danp5648, back away from the Kooliad and put down the pipe. Chhatbars's first statment is sophmoric at best, moronic in the whole. If investors truly beleived in his business acumen, they would be investing now to take advantage of the anticipated upswing in the stock price in April. The reason people are not investing in ENA is due to the cash flow issues and the lack of visibility of profit by April. While they continue to reduce cap ex and stem some of the bleeding, I highly doubt that he is going to be able to reduce the current burn rate sufficently to become profitable. BTW, how are all the Verizon sales you touted last December working out for ENA?
danp5648 12/5/2012 | 3:51:13 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

"Chhatbar said he believes many investors are waiting for Enablence to turn cash-flow-positive before buying the stock. He said the company expects to reach that milestone by April."


Shut up and wait for April.&nbsp;


"He said the company spent heavily on R&amp;D as it readied products for commercial launch. Now that its products are available, R&amp;D spending will decline to a more typical 15-20% of revenue instead of 30-35%, he said."


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from the WSJ

Polder 12/5/2012 | 3:51:13 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence This is not your standard boiler plate statement of a healthy company. However, if economic conditions deteriorate, thus preventing the Company from achieving its operating objectives or if the current financial crisis results in financial institutions requiring the Company to provide additional cash collateral in support of its credit facilities or if its lenders seek early repayment of the CompanyGĒÖs obligations due to failure to maintain current ratio and tangible net worth covenants, the Company may not have sufficient cash and cash equivalents to meet its operations and capital expenditures for the next 12 months.
danp5648 12/5/2012 | 3:51:13 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

Yes, that's who I am talking about you moron.

Polder 12/5/2012 | 3:51:14 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence You might have addressed the issue but has ENA? If I were in Vegas, I would not bet on a company that had to make this statement.

The Company expects that its current level of cash and cash equivalents will be sufficient to
meet its operations and capital expenditures for more than the next 12 months, based on its
2010 operating forecasts. These forecasts include assumptions regarding:
GĒó revenue growth as the global economic conditions improve and the economic stimulus
packages in the U.S. and elsewhere are accessed by the CompanyGĒÖs customer base;
GĒó the increase in design contracts on behalf of key optical component customers;
GĒó improved gross margins as a result of the consolidation of our contract manufacturing
are completed and the improvements to the cost elements of our optical components
and subsystems;
GĒó the changes we have made to our R&D costs arising from the shift of some of our noncore
engineering initiatives to lower cost centers; and
GĒó improvements in accounts receivable collections and inventory management.
However, if economic conditions deteriorate, thus preventing the Company from achieving its
operating objectives or if the current financial crisis results in financial institutions requiring the
Company to provide additional cash collateral in support of its credit facilities or if its lenders
seek early repayment of the CompanyGĒÖs obligations due to failure to maintain current ratio and
tangible net worth covenants, the Company may not have sufficient cash and cash equivalents
to meet its operations and capital expenditures for the next 12 months. Enablence may receive
nominal cash proceeds on the issue of additional common shares on the exercise of options
and warrants depending in part on the market price for its shares. The Company periodically
evaluates the opportunity to raise additional funds through either the public or private placement
of equity capital to strengthen its financial position and facilitate possible investments and to
provide sufficient cash reserves to protect itself from the effects of the current unpredictable
economic conditions.
danp5648 12/5/2012 | 3:51:14 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

And I told you they have that problem locked down. I addressed this issue now move on.&nbsp;

Polder 12/5/2012 | 3:51:14 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence You miss my point, Einstein. Look at their burn rate, look at the money they just raised. Do the math. Before they become profitable, they need to come up with a plan to stay open over the next three quarters. There is a limit to the number of times they can raise money externally and their balance sheet does not merit a significant line of credit from anyone. Gross margins of 21-24% lag well behind Calix/Adtran. The T7 platform is a great technology but ENA does not have the legs or credibility to make it on its own. The current businss model is unsustainable.
danp5648 12/5/2012 | 3:51:15 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

Yes they have TO turn a profit. You missed the word "TO" you moron.


Polder 12/5/2012 | 3:51:15 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence Danp, you should share whatever you are smoking. Turned a profit? They started the quarter with $11.5M in the bank. They raised about $13M and some change during the quarter. They ended the quarter with $14.9M in the bank and admit a current burn rate of just under $7M per quarter. The rest of this post is copied straight from their quarterly statement. Enlighten me as to where the profit is shown...

In FQ1 2010, the Company continued the process of strengthening its financial capabilities by
reducing costs and strengthening its cash resources. As part of this process, it successfully
completed on May 12, 2009 raising $13.8 million in a common share offering.
Our operations continue to show improvement. This quarter, relative to the previous quarter,
has shown a reduction in our net loss from $12.8 million in the previous quarter to $6.9 million
this quarter. The full impact of the reductions initiated in the previous and current quarters are
still to be fully realized. Nonetheless, this quarter has already shown a reduction in absolute
dollars in all of the key cost categories: sales and marketing, R&D and G&A. This trend will
likely continue in subsequent quarter as a result of additional actions taken to reduce R&D and
G&A expenditures.
The gross margin picture has shown slight improvement mainly due to the actions taken on our
Components side where the margins have shown substantial improvements. The overall gross
margin still requires further improvement and measures taken to consolidate contract
manufacturing activities in the current and following quarter will help in this direction, although
the full impact of it will not show until the third and fourth quarters due to lead times on contract
manufacturing and existing contractual obligations.
Had the sales picture improved in the current quarter, the operating loss would have been much
smaller. It is the CompanyGĒÖs expectation that the deliveries which are scheduled for the second
fiscal quarter will show improvements in the overall revenue picture GĒō assuming all other
conditions remain the same.

NET LOSS
The net loss for FQ1 2010 was $6,883, as compared to $12,808 for FQ4 2009. Of the $12,808
net loss for FQ4 2009, $3,300 relates to an increase in the provision for future tax liability
related to intangible assets. After adjusting for this provision, the net loss for FQ4 2009 was
$9,508, which was $2,625 more than the net loss for FQ1 2010. The decrease in net loss is
attributable to the reasons set out above.
danp5648 12/5/2012 | 3:51:17 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

First its NOT a "nice win" they "E" have won THREE times SO FAR with TUTOR. The last win includes not just ONT's but the whole WORKS, not just the low end crap. I blame lightreading for this for the poor reporting.&nbsp;


Yes they have TO turn a profit and turn the corner. Yes yes yes boring point however.&nbsp; That issue has been done to death and will be fixed this quarter.


Calix is doing great after the Q-to-Q fall but still geographically challenged and no Intel possible help.





Polder 12/5/2012 | 3:51:18 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

Danp5648, thanks for the vulgar gloating.&nbsp; I can only hope you sold at .70 cents now that it is trading back down around .40 cents.&nbsp; I would strongly urge you to look at their latest financials and calculate the burn rate against cash in hand.&nbsp; Ask not for whom the bell tolls but a review of the finances does not create a pretty picture.&nbsp; I would also recommend you look at the announced wins at places like Tutor.&nbsp; While it is a nice win, 5000 ONT's over a year means they have to have staff capable of installing 96 ONT's per week.&nbsp; Lets then&nbsp;pretend that the ONT's were sold for $200 USD each, that is only $1M USD in revenue.&nbsp; Compare that revenue to their burn rate.&nbsp; I would highly doubt you are accumulating stock at the "bargain" price of .40 cents.


You should be hoarding your money for the Calix IPO.&nbsp; I wouldn't put lipstick on that pig either...

olsen 12/5/2012 | 3:51:19 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

Today this figure made the WSJ, courtesy of another analyst (read: ENA shareholder). Craigh, please twist Chhatbars arm (or at least pry his mouth open) so that the correct number can surface. This $10 photodiode sounds like a bad joke.

danp5648 12/5/2012 | 3:51:37 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence <h3 class="GenericStory_Message">Enablence Technologies Inc. up +150% in three days. I am rich bitches!</h3>
danp5648 12/5/2012 | 3:51:38 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

Foci Fiber Optic is making the cables


Foci in its discussion did provide insight as to the design of early cables. As glass fiber optic cables are normally brittle, companies were originally expected to use plastic fiber. However, its performance was poor enough for Foci that it instead used a particularly flexible variety of glass fiber treated for extra resistance. The result has the speed needed to sustain Light Peak's 10Gbps but can be coiled as tightly as an inch in diameter." and ..



Light Peak can do more than just connect your hard drives up--it could well serve as the cable to connect a PC to a display, and even to your broadband router, since it's got plenty of bandwidth. As a result, you could end up with fewer different cable standards to worry about (USB, VGA, HDMI, audio, Cat 5, and so on) and thus less cabling mess. It's possible that a single Light Peak cable could actually connect up every one of your peripherals.









danp5648 12/5/2012 | 3:51:40 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

&nbsp; Since when did you ever cover small cap stock movements on the Canadian venture exchange? And if its about the strange price movements&nbsp; (which did only happen at the end of today 4 pm) how can you also be working on it if light peak didn't peak your interests? At what point did the work begin and why? Also your "sources" should include people who where short Enablence or at least knowledgeable in stock trading not just technology relayed "sources"...


&nbsp;&nbsp; I am not convinced you just happen to be keeping an eye on E but maybe they stood out on some ranking system and then you did some backtracking. Kim might have over done it which caused the shorts to run like crazy but if you ever had to cover a short position I think you would have I better understanding. I would also look at level 2 trading to see who the players are and see if if they are just playing around with the stock. Normally price surges don't last multiple days plus Friday is a great day to walk away with profits in hand so I have no idea why the shares didn't fall and I have no idea what is going to happen on Monday..&nbsp; I have shares in the lower 20's so I was thinking about getting out... &nbsp;


I also wonder if first hand sources have ever answered the phone or answered a single question and if they never do why do you keep calling?

danp5648 12/5/2012 | 3:51:40 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

This news happened three days ago ... who tip you off?? In-the-dark-reading. Also on the 1st was the enablence 3rd contract annoucement selection by TUTOR expected to connect the first 5,000 customers within the next year and 65,000 subscribers in the region in the next 10 years. The other&nbsp; Light Peak suppliers are FOCI and Oclaro. Oclaro will make the VCSEL Laser and FOCI well something else.


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Pete Baldwin 12/5/2012 | 3:51:40 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

No, this news happened today.&nbsp; It's not about Light Peak (which doesn't interest me much) but about the runup in ENA's stock (which does).&nbsp; Is the deal worth another 55% of a jump?&nbsp; I'm not convinced.


I know you like to think you tipped us off, Dan, but I was working on the story already when you posted that previous message.

Larry Joe 12/5/2012 | 3:51:41 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

... if it's ever going to be used on a high volume PC or server.


Intel is not actually manufacturing/assembling Light Peak are they? From their website, it says "Intel is planning to supply the controller chip, and is working with other component manufacturers to deliver all the Light Peak components..." Investors should ask JDSU, or Avago, or Finisar, or Foxconn or whoever else is building these modules if they are planning to use Enablence (Albis) photodiodes in their products that will be sold to Dell, Sony, Apple, HP, etc.


Another question: is Intel driving an existing industry standards body to define the details (pinout, optical specs, etc.), or just do it themselves?


Larry Joe


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Stevery 12/5/2012 | 3:51:42 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

Shares of Enablence are soaring on news that a dinky photodiode can be worth $10 to $12. Really?


You had an negative impact on the stock. So you should be sued.

madoff_sr 12/5/2012 | 4:45:17 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence lol, unbelievable garbage continues. Madoff_jr had the future in past posts.
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