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Nevertheless, as far as both Rebbeck and Karam are concerned, the real challenge to NB-IoT comes from LTE-M. (See Could LTE-M Torpedo NB-IoT?)Backed heavily by US operators AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) and Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ), that standard has more recently secured a commitment from France's Orange (NYSE: FTE) and is also finding a role in some Asian markets.While it supports faster connection speeds and is costlier than NB-IoT, the differences between the two standards are not extreme, says the Sequans CEO.Some big operators have turned to LTE-M because it has a more developed ecosystem and can address a broader range of opportunities than NB-IoT, he argues. And that means that module prices are falling quickly."The percentage split between LTE-M and NB-IoT will depend on whether carriers are happy about LTE-M volumes in the first year of deployment and can shrink down the cost," he says. "If they can, NB-IoT will have more problems."Karam thinks module costs for LTE-M could ultimately fall to about $7 per unit and that NB-IoT prices could eventually drop to just below $5 per unit.Sigfox has boasted that its modules cost about $2 each but Karam says that comparisons of this nature are not fair because the cellular devices incorporate features that are missing from the unlicensed-spectrum technologies."The 3GPP technologies will on paper be a bit more expensive if you do an apples-to-apples comparison, but if you were to add security and management and other layers to LoRa then it would become comparable on cost to 3GPP," he says. "This is why there is so much confusion -- the chips don't do the same things."Want to know more about 4G LTE? Check out our dedicated 4G LTE content channel here on Light Reading.If the appeal of LTE-M does constrain the opportunity for NB-IoT, then much hangs on developments in the vast Chinese market and the connectivity strategy of leading operator China Mobile Ltd. (NYSE: CHL).Publicly, the company has pushed NB-IoT rather than LTE-M, but the former technology would not work in its TDD (time division duplex) spectrum, says Karam.To make use of NB-IoT, China Mobile would need access to FDD (frequency division duplex) frequencies, he explains.While TDD runs all communications over a single block of "unpaired" spectrum, FDD uses one channel for the uplink and another for the downlink."They have not been 100% clear on this," says Karam. "They are still saying we need NB-IoT but they realize that in the meantime they don't have the frequencies and the only thing they can use is LTE-M."Given the support that LTE-M already enjoys in North America, a major commitment to the technology by an Asian heavyweight like China Mobile would "make the case harder for NB-IoT" as the globally preferred cellular standard, according to Rebbeck.Next page: Squaring up to QualcommSquaring up to Qualcomm
Sequans claims to be the first company to have developed a chip that supports both LTE-M and NB-IoT communications.Branded Monarch, that device was certified for use on Verizon's network at the start of this year, and Sequans is now engaged with other Tier 1 operators plotting their LPWA strategies, including AT&T, Orange, Vodafone, KDDI Corp. and SoftBank Corp.Sequans has a huge rival in the form of Qualcomm Inc. (Nasdaq: QCOM), but Karam insists that his company's products come with big advantages on cost and power and that Qualcomm has basically just repurposed its older technology.Other competitors include Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC), which is expected to launch chips later this year, and an Israeli player called Altair Semiconductor that was acquired by Japanese electronics giant Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE) in early 2016.Sequans is currently working on a next-generation device called the Monarch SX that will have the same modem but feature an ARM processor. Another product in the pipeline is a chip optimized for "NB-IoT only," says Karam."We think we are in good shape to capture a big market share and this is quite a sticky market because it is all about running businesses for a very long time," he says. "We are excited about the growth potential."Originally a WiMax player, Sequans dramatically shifted its focus to LTE in 2012 when WiMax ran into problems.It works exclusively on "single mode" LTE products and derives most of its revenues from chips used in a range of broadband devices, including home and mobile routers and USB dongles.After the change in strategy, revenues crashed in 2013, falling by 38% to $13.7 million. But they have risen impressively in each of the last three years and were up 40% in 2016, to $45.6 million.The company is still reporting annual losses but these narrowed from $27.4 million in 2015 to about $24.8 million last year.Karam has led the company since it was founded in 2003.— Iain Morris, , News Editor, Light Reading
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