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BellSouth to the Rescue?

Light Reading
News Analysis
Light Reading
6/25/2002

Stirring hope in the hearts of optical and data networking equipment makers everywhere, BellSouth Corp. (NYSE: BLS) is apparently on the verge of awarding multiple lucrative contracts as part of a major push to optimize its infrastructure to deliver data services.

As part of the initiative, the smallest of the former RBOCs recently announced plans to roll out a network-based IP VPN (virtual private network) service based on MPLS technology before the end of the year. While that service will be built upon yet-to-be purchased core and edge routing equipment, the carrier has revealed to Light Reading that it is also close to issuing additional purchase orders for a variety of optical DWDM transport gear.

The optimism springs from a mound of RFI (request for information) and RFP (request for proposals) activity at Bell South in connection with these projects. These official documents tell equipment providers the requirements of the network and commence the bidding process. While the news out of the Atlanta-based carrier could mean that a much-needed influx of capital will bring a lift to the sagging fortunes of several equipment makers, industry experts are pretty much split on whether to interpret the news as a sign that the South shall rise again or if it’s just the latest example of an RBOC whistling Dixie.

“Even the companies responding to carrier RFPs are wondering how serious they are in the current environment,” says Kevin C. Slocum, managing director at SoundView Technology Group. “In general, what I hear is that the carriers are keeping a tight hold on their spending until they get some help from the economy on the revenue line, and they’re not talking about a one-quarter reprieve.”

“There’s been a lot of RFP and RFI activity over the past 12 months from a number of service providers,” says Ted Jackson, an analyst with U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray. “RBOCs are constantly kicking tires.”

BellSouth representatives insist the RBOC’s activity is not part of a fishing expedition but a prelude to a major infrastructure upgrade to diversify the company’s revenues away from the voice business. Ken Kraft, senior director of data product marketing at BellSouth, says the company is positioning itself to continue to increase its data-oriented revenue base, which was about $4.2 billion in 2001.

When you compare the $4.2 billion in data services revenue to BellSouth’s $22 billion in voice revenues, it points to one of the problems in the telecom industry in general: With revenue growth flat and profit margins shrinking in voice, carriers need to tap new growth in data services. Services such as VPNs are a focus of this (see VPNs Branch Out , MPLS VPNs: The Talk of Supercomm, and Service Providers Jump on VPNs).

“The key takeaway is that BellSouth definitely has its eyes set on the data marketplace,” says Kraft. “We see it as the single largest growth engine for the organization.”

An accurate gauge of BellSouth’s commitment to data services is the amount of capital it plans to devote to the pending data buildout. According to information compiled by Light Reading’s Optical Oracle, BellSouth’s estimated capex budget for 2002 is between $4.2 billion and $4.4 billion. Just how much of that budget, or next year’s budget, is earmarked for the data expansion, Kraft and other executives at BellSouth aren’t saying.

The RBOC plans to issue purchase orders for four different product segments. According to Kraft, those categories are edge routing, core routing, DWDM, and next-generation Sonet, a category also known as multiservice provisioning platforms (MSPPs). The core and edge routing contracts are closest to being completed, says Kraft, as they serve as the infrastructure foundation for the MPLS-based VLANs the RBOC announced at the Supercomm tradeshow earlier this month (see BellSouth Focuses on Data Solutions ).

Kevin Mitchell, an analyst with Infonetics Research Inc., says that BellSouth’s plans are unique among carriers. SBC Communications Inc. has revealed intentions to offer a VPN, says Mitchell, but it is unclear if it will be based on Multiprotocol Label Switching (MPLS), a pending Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) standard that gives Internet Protocol (IP) networks many of the reliability and performance attributes of Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) networks.

IP Routing

Among the candidates mentioned for the edge routing position are Redback Networks Inc. (Nasdaq: RBAK), Riverstone Networks Inc. (Nasdaq: RSTN), and Unisphere Networks Inc. (which is being purchased by Juniper Networks). Though startup Laurel Networks Inc. has come up in discussions of the project, Laurel officials say they are not pursuing the bid.

Mitchell says BellSouth is likely to tap the same router maker for both the core and the edge. While nearly every analyst has fingered Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO) and Juniper Networks Inc. (Nasdaq: JNPR) for the core of the network, there’s a pretty even divide between those who believe Juniper will be the primary supplier and those who see Cisco in that role.

A Unisphere spokeswomen would say no more than “the company is targeting RBOCs with its edge routing equipment, however, we've not made any formal announcements."

In addition to edge and core routing, Mitchell also suspects that BellSouth will need to strike a deal with a maker of IP services equipment to deliver support for IPSec-based connections into corporate VPNs, as well as firewall and other security services. An incumbent IP services box maker, such as CoSine Communications Inc. (Nasdaq: COSN), Lucent Technologies Inc. (NYSE: LU), or Nortel Networks Corp. (NYSE/Toronto: NT), could have an advantage over newcomers like Celox Networks and Corona Networks Inc., adds Mitchell.

MSPP and Sonet

Leading candidates for the MSPP business appear to be the usual suspects – including Lucent, Cisco, and Fujitsu Ltd. (KLS: FUJI.KL).

“Lucent seems to be the front runner,” says Steve Levy, a Lehman Brothers analyst. “Cisco is also working real hard.”

Another source familiar with the RFP, but who asked not to be identified, says that Lucent and Fujitsu are two of the finalists for the contract. Both these companies are logical candidates because they offer BellSouth backward compatibility with its installed base of traditional Sonet gear.

“We feel that our next-gen Sonet box gives us a good plug into existing accounts,” says Brian Dunlap, vice president of metro networks at Lucent, noting that Lucent already works with BellSouth.

Fujitsu executives throw around similar hints that they expect to play a role in BellSouth’s data buildout.

“I can’t comment on any specific customer,” says Parker Blackwell, vice president of metro product marketing at Fujitsu. “But from our understanding, we are the only next-generation Sonet vendor or supplier either deployed or under final consideration in every RBOC.”

Bob Smith, senior director for data transport and connectivity at BellSouth, says the MSPP contract is in the final stages of negotiation. He hinted that backward compatibility with BellSouth’s existing Sonet network was an important requirement of next-generation Sonet gear.

“What MSPP does is net us new interfaces and flexibility on the Sonet platform we already have,” says Smith.

DWDM

On the DWDM front, most analysts say the candidates are ONI Systems, which was recently purchased by Ciena Corp. (Nasdaq: CIEN), and Nortel Networks. According to Smith, 41 equipment makers responded to the RFP the carrier issued in January for DWDM gear, which will be used in conjunction with the MSPP equipment to deliver wavelength services. Smith says BellSouth’s goal is to select multiple vendors before the end of the year and target implementation for sometime in 2003.

While securing a contract with BellSouth or another RBOC could mean salvation for a lucky few, missing out on the next wave of equipment buying could sound the death knell for dozens of startups that have been essentially hiding in hibernation, each hoping to land a big contract before burning through its remaining cash.

That’s why many industry experts, who are skeptical about the scope and timing of an RBOC buying binge, caution that carriers are notoriously slow movers and tend to offer new services only when faced with an immediate competitive threat.

Others, however, say that BellSouth, as well as other RBOCs, are serious about bulking up their infrastructures to deliver data services.

“If your revenue base is shrinking, you have to figure out where to get money somewhere else,” says Hilary Mine, an analyst with Probe Research Inc. “It’s got to be data.”

— Joe McGarvey, special to Light Reading
http://www.lightreading.com

Editor's Note: Light Reading is not affiliated with Oracle Corporation.

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straight shooter
straight shooter
12/4/2012 | 10:13:11 PM
re: BellSouth to the Rescue?
True to form, a balanced, well written article from Joe McGarvey.

Joe, good to see you in print even as a special submission.
Scott Raynovich
Scott Raynovich
12/4/2012 | 10:13:10 PM
re: BellSouth to the Rescue?
we'll take the compliment, though the wording was funny. Ha.

Now, really, does somebody have some interesting feedback and/or information as to where these RFPs are going?
scooby
scooby
12/4/2012 | 10:13:07 PM
re: BellSouth to the Rescue?
Let me see if I've got this straight. We've got a company sagging under a massive load of debt that is suffering contraction in its core businesses. Barring government subsidy, how is this segment supposed to transition to profitability?

While there is a great deal of hope that new data services are the salvation, nobody seems to be rolling up huge bank offering them. Broadband initiative? Puh-lease! The road to bankruptcy is littered with the corpses of data-focused service providers.

Everyone just takes as gospel the fact that new investment in infrastructure is necessary, but how the heck are they going to finance this? If BS actually purchases all the gear you have listed in this article, the pile of bonds necessary to finance the projects would reach the moon. I smell government intervention in the not to distant future...

I will trade you a handful of magic beans for a new optical infrastructure...
LightMan
LightMan
12/4/2012 | 10:13:02 PM
re: BellSouth to the Rescue?
This RFP has been floating around for the past year. Software vendors, SI's, and hardware are all involved. Those that I know of include csco, rstn, kpmg, jnpr, gtp, Dorado, and Orchestream. The whole exercise turned out to be somewhat of a soap opera.

Neither of the software vendors mentioned are going to be selected based on my understanding.

Let's see - I think I have that RFP floating around here somewhere. ;)

LightMan
http://www.thesoftwareprompt.c...
BobbyMax
BobbyMax
12/4/2012 | 10:12:56 PM
re: BellSouth to the Rescue?
BellSouth os the only RBOC that has announced its intentions to deploy MPLS. There are a lot of questions about the performace of MPLS. Its scalbility is questionable.

BellSouth should co-ordinate the trial activities with other RBOCs. Since most of the RBOCs deploy the same technology, it behooves that edge and core routers, DWDM, and all optical gears must be tested in a co-ordinated fashion.

It is too dangerous to buy edge and core routers, DWDM, and optical networkgear should be bought from established companies. Lucent and Nortel are in a unique position to meet the needs of BellSouth. But if the company strays and buys any thing from start-ups or recent start-ups that have gone public in the last two or three years.
Thurston Howell III
Thurston Howell III
12/4/2012 | 10:12:56 PM
re: BellSouth to the Rescue?
Seriously LR - what prompted this article? MPLS edge and core, DWDM and new SONET gear all at the same time??? Come on now...

The MPLS and MSPP RFP's are at least a year and a half old... I will admit your close on the MPLS RFP but the remainder of your article is pure fiction and / or fantasy.

I'm just curious what LR's motivation was to write this given the only BLS references were from two marketing folk's soundbytes saying "data is good... data is our friend..."
rafaelg
rafaelg
12/4/2012 | 10:12:53 PM
re: BellSouth to the Rescue?
http://www.marketwatch.com/new...

More erosion of the competition along with the lack of tele-equipment at the E-bay yard sales, will bring the monopoly back...Get your AT&T stocks now!

The coup d'+¬tat is imminent.

Sickening...
jmcgarvey
jmcgarvey
12/4/2012 | 10:12:52 PM
re: BellSouth to the Rescue?
You make an excellent point about the Bells needing to co-ordinate trial activity and technology adoption. It will never happen but it would save them a tremendous amount of money and make their networks much less vulnerable to competition.

If the Cable companies have any kind of advantage it is that they are much more of a collective than the Bells. Softswitch vendors point to CableLabs and the Packetcable specification as evidence that the cable companies will deliver voice services before the Bells figure out how to deliver video.

I guess you could argue that Telcordia is that centralized facility in the RBOC world but it just doesn't seem to carry the same weight.

I'm probably being naive, but I think that the Bells could benefit from more collaboration too. I guess the problem is that in the end they see each other as the ultimate competition.

Joe
jmcgarvey
jmcgarvey
12/4/2012 | 10:12:52 PM
re: BellSouth to the Rescue?
Mr. Howell,

What prompted the writing of this story, you asked? I suppose it was the fact that BellSouth claims that it is going to do everything, and maybe more, than was reported in the story. Is that the RBOC's actual intention? Will it follow through on those plans? I don't think the story claimed to know the answer to either of those questions.

There are a lot, I mean a lot, of analysts and insiders that do think this is a bunch of sound and fury and nothing else. Though I didn't have room to included it, one analyst told me that BellSouth has made similar noise about ethernet. When all was said in done, however, the RBOC built out Atlanta and Miami, according to the analyst, and little else. He suspects this announcement will end in a similar way.

Just about everyone agrees that the only way the Bells will move is if they are pushed. Whether they are being pushed or not is of some debate. Some say the RBOCs are sitting pretty in the wake of the mass failure of CLECs, DLECs and ELECs. Others say that the Bells are shaking in their boots over potential threats from cable companies and wireless players.

If nothing else, the Bells do recognize that data services represent the best way to grow their revenues. Will that awareness translate into significant and immediate action, only time will tell.

How's Lovie, by the way?


Joe
Kevin Mitchell
Kevin Mitchell
12/4/2012 | 10:12:52 PM
re: BellSouth to the Rescue?
This is related to the announcments that BellSouth made at Supercomm.
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