As the cable industry races to prepare for the upcoming DOCSIS 3.1 era next year, equipment vendors are continuing to ship DOCSIS 3.0 modems, gateways, and related home devices in record numbers. (See Docsis 3.1 Spec Out in Time for Halloween.)

In its latest report on the broadband home equipment market, ABI Research predicts that global DOCSIS 3.0 device shipments will climb to 50 million units next year, up 14% from about 44 million units this year. Moreover, ABI says, DOCSIS 3.0 device shipments will account for a whopping 89% of all cable CPE shipments and 33% of all broadband CPE shipments in 2014.

But that's far from the whole story on the rapidly changing broadband equipment front. ABI also predicts that rival telco VDSL device shipments will rise sharply next year. Although total DSL CPE shipments are expected to dip 2% this year as the DSL market continues to struggle, the research group says faster VDSL devices are making up a greater portion of those shipments. As a result, ABI expects VDSL CPE shipments to account for more than 25% of DSL CPE shipments in 2014.

Further, ABI predicts that even faster fiber-based home devices will command higher market share next year as more telcos, ISPs, cable operators, and other service providers deploy all-fiber networks. The research group forecasts that fiber-based home devices will account for 26% of all CPE shipments in 2014, their highest proportion yet.

With all these changes, ABI figures that cable and DSL devices will close out 2014 tied for the lead with about 37% market share. The research group sees overall broadband home device shipments increasing to 150 million units next year, up about 2% from an estimated 147 million units this year.

On the vendor front, ZTE Corp. (Shenzhen: 000063; Hong Kong: 0763) led the field with a 13% market share in the third quarter, according to ABI. Benefiting from its takeover of Motorola Home Group and a strong wave of DOCSIS 3.0 modem and gateway shipment, Arris Group Inc. (Nasdaq: ARRS) captured second place with a 12% share, passing Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. in the rankings. Huawei slipped to third place with an 11% market share.

— Alan Breznick, Cable/Video Practice Leader, Light Reading