Next-Gen Rollout Survey

Who's ahead in the global race to roll out 2.5G and 3G networks Part 1: North America Western Europe Eastern Europe

June 2, 2002

40 Min Read
Next-Gen Rollout Survey

The time has come to stop talking about the wonders of next-generation wireless technologies and start figuring out where they're actually being deployed – which service providers are taking the plunge and which ones are hanging back.

It's really the only way of figuring out whether momentum is building behind those wireless developments that promise to boost mobile bandwidths to the point where all sorts of new applications will become viable.

That's what this report is all about – getting the cold, hard facts on deployments. It's Part 1 of a survey of the leaders and laggards in rolling out so-called 2.5G and 3G wireless technologies around the world. For definitions of these technologies, check out Unstrung's A Wireless Taxonomy, also published today.

In Part 1 of this survey, we're covering North America, Western Europe, and Central and Eastern Europe – a total of 30 countries. Yes, we've scoped out who's doing what in places such as Bulgaria, Ukraine, and Turkey, as well as the more popular standbys like Finland, France, and Germany.

In Part 2, we'll do the same thing in the Asia Pacific, Latin America, and the rest of the world.

In this report, we've provided the following information for each country:

  • A one- or two-sentence summary of what's going on

  • The leaders and laggards among service providers rolling out 2.5G networks

  • Ditto for 3G networks

When reading this report, it's important to bear in mind that quite a lot of rollout plans are moving targets – and more often than not, they move backwards. In other words, they happen later than planned. It's also important to bear in mind that service carriers might claim to have rolled out next-generation services on the basis of a small trial. Making those services widely available is likely to take a lot longer.

Here's a hyperlinked list of the regions and countries covered by this report:

North America

Western Europe:

Central and Eastern Europe



About the authors:

U.S.A.

In the U.S., spectrum is the key to the 3G services puzzle. If carriers are a little fuzzy on launch dates for UMTS or CDMA2000 1xEV-DO/DV services (2003-2005) that's because they currently don't have the bandwidth to offer them. Only Sprint PCS says it has enough spectrum to offer third-generation services like multimedia data streams over its network.

The other major carriers are trying to get spectrum through various means. Cable TV operators, the military, and bankrupt telecom operator Nextwave Telecom Inc. are all embroiled in spectrum disputes, some more heated than others, among the operators, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), and (sometimes) the wider government. But the most likely way that most major U.S. carriers will gain more spectrum is by buying smaller operators. The FCC has previously blocked this, with its infamous spectrum cap. However, this is due to "sunset" on January 1, 2003.

As well as snapping up the smaller operators, many think that deregulation will lead to mergers among the larger players. So, the following lays out how the operators shape up at the moment, but it could all change next year.

In a Nutshell: All of the major U.S. carriers have started implementing intermediate technology on an upgrade path towards 3G, except for Nextel Communications Inc., which is sticking to its guns and its proprietary iDEN network (despite rumors about a jump to CDMA).

Table 1: United States

Leaders

Laggards

CDMA 1xRTT

Verizon Wireless was the first major carrier to launch a CDMA2000 1xRTT network in the U.S. Desperate to be first, the company launched the "3G" service in the Northeast on January 28, 2002.

Despite being beaten to the punch by its archrival, Sprint PCS is hoping that slow and steady will win the race, as it plans to launch its nationwide service this summer, possibly in August.

GSM/GPRS

AT&T Wireless won the GPRS race in the same token fashion as Verizon did the 1xRTT race, launching its network in July 2001 in Seattle. It has continued adding markets since and expects to have nationwide coverage by the end of the year. VoiceStream launched its GPRS service in November, its major omission being coverage in California.

Cingular Wireless, despite launching some GPRS coverage in August 2001, has become a dab hand at signing network-sharing agreements. It has deals with both AT&T and VoiceStream. Cingular will launch a service in NYC this summer using VS's networks; in return, VS is using Cingular to launch in California.

CDMA2000 1xEV-DO/DV

Monet Mobile Networks from Sioux Falls, South Dakota, is likely to be the first operator in the U.S. to roll out CDMA2000 1xEV-DO 3G technology this fall. The major carriers are being much coyer about their 3G rollouts. Both Verizon and Sprint have run EV-DO tests, but they aren't saying when these services will be launched. Most commentators expect to see the first services from major carriers next year.

The chatter in the industry suggests that Nextel Communications Inc. may eventually decide to move to a CDMA upgrade path. If that happens, they will most certainly be a follower, rather than a leader.

EDGE/UMTS

All the U.S GPRS operators are planning to make the EDGE software upgrade to their networks before (eventually) moving to UMTS. AT&T is once again likely to be first with EDGE. UMTS is expected to start arriving in 2004; however, there is no regulatory requirement to launch UMTS services in the U.S., as there is in Europe, so that date could be subject to slippage.

VoiceStream seems to be taking the most leisurely approach to launching EDGE, possibly because it is the only major carrier in the U.S. currently plotting a combined Wireless LAN, EDGE, and GPRS network. However, it says it will start EDGE services in 2003.



Canada

In a Nutshell: As in the States, Canadian carriers are evenly split between a CDMA-based upgrade path to 3G or GSM-based GPRS/EDGE/UMTS steps to the goal.

Table 2: Canada

Leaders

Laggards

CDMA 2000 1xRTT/EV-DO/DV

The Mobility division of Bell Canada launched its 1xRTT network in November 2001. It has not revealed when it will roll out further iterations of the CDMA2000 standard.

Telus Mobility plans to launch its CDMA 1xRTT network in June. Again, it has not announced the timescale for further upgrades.

GPRS/EDGE/UMTS

Microcell PCS launched Canada's first GPRS network in October of 2001. The firm has not announced the timescale for its migration to 3G but has named Nortel as its EDGE supplier.

Rogers AT&T Wireless started rolling out its GPRS network in January and hopes to have nationwide coverage by the end of the year. It has not announced timescales for 3G but has named Ericsson as its EDGE/UMTS network provider.



Related Unstrung articles:

  • LG Electronics Arms CDMA Insurgents
    AT&T and Cingular: Hot for VoiceStream?
    Verizon Is Not the Nation's First
    Waiting for 3G: What about the U.S?
    AT&T Launches GPRS

Austria

In a Nutshell: With six 3G license holders the market looks overcrowded.

Table 3: Austria

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

Having launched Europe�s first commercial GPRS service in 2000, Mobilkom Austria is a data pioneer. T-Mobile Austria recently launched a new GPRS-based VPN service and offers extensive international roaming.

Connect Austria GmbH, also known as ONE, has done a reasonable catch-up job and now has a full retail and business offer. tele.ring Telecom Service GmbH has struggled for market share with its voice services, but it's making a good effort to turn this around when it comes to data.

3G

ONE is bidding to leapfrog its bigger rivals and hopes to launch at the end of 2002, in what will probably represent one of Nokia Corp.�s first live networks. Mobilkom is aiming for a fourth-quarter launch in order to retain its leadership in GSM/GPRS. The rollout at Hutchison 3G Austria GmbH is likely to be closely aligned with the firm�s U.K. and Italian operations.

The fate of 3G Mobile Telecommunications GmbH is probably tied to the fate of Telef�nica M�viles SA's German and Swiss operations. Given the low price of 3G licenses, don�t be surprised if not much happens for a while.



Belgium

In a Nutshell: Mobistar and Proximus are way out ahead.

Table 4: Belgium

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

Mobistar SA led the way with its Pocket Office service in early 2001 and has recently added full Internet access to its portfolio and announced a new tariff structure. Belgacom Mobile SA (Proximus) opened its WAP over GPRS services in July 2001, but didn�t begin marketing Internet access until February 2002.

KPN Orange Belgium (BASE) does not yet have a GPRS offer, but it was the first to introduce HSCSD and will shortly introduce i-mode, in line with the rest of the KPN Mobile Group.

3G

The government pushed back the start date for 3G services until September 2003, after a joint request from the three license holders. Proximus will most likely launch first, followed by Mobistar.

KPN Mobile has just bought out the majority stake in BASE from Orange SA. With KPN�s finances severely stretched, BASE will probably be last to market.



Denmark

In a Nutshell: An early adopter of mobile data technologies, with tough deadlines for 3G rollout.

Table 5: Denmark

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

Sonofon Holding AS began commercial GPRS services in January 2001, one month ahead of TDC Mobil. Orange AS followed three months later.

Telia Mobile AS didn�t launch until early 2002, but it now offers GPRS roaming throughout its Scandinavian territories for no extra charge.

3G

Although awarded by auction, UMTS licenses require all 3G operators to cover 40 percent of the population by the end of 2004 and 80 percent by 2008. Operators are annoyed that they are not permitted to enter into network sharing agreements. Expect TDC and Hi3G Denmark ApS to lead the way.

Orange�s head of business development, Sam Steffensen, doesn�t expect to make any money from UMTS in the first 10 years. Sonofon was the only incumbent not to win a 3G license, after major shareholder BellSouth Corp. decided not to back a bid.



Finland

In a Nutshell: Nokia will pull out all the stops to showcase its latest 3G technology in its home market.

Table 6: Finland

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

Sonera Corp. led the way but had only a few thousand users by January 2002, forcing it to scrap its monthly charge in favor of volume-based billing. Suomen 2G OY went straight to a GSM/GPRS network when it launched in January 2000, but coverage is patchy and it still hasn�t got many customers. In July 2001, Sonera and Nokia began an MMS-over-HSCSD service using the Nokia Communicator handset.

Radiolinja OY was almost a year behind Sonera and didn�t begin serious marketing until the end of October 2001. Telia Mobile AB has always struggled in Finland, and now that it�s up for sale there are new questions about its investment strategy.

3G

Sonera says it will launch commercial 3G services on September 26, 2002. The launch has been timed to coincide with the availability of Nokia�s first 3G handsets, so it will be watched closely throughout the world. But significantly, Sonera doesn�t see a mass market developing until the end of 2004 or even 2005. Meanwhile, Telia Mobile will introduce public WLAN access at 130 hotspots by the end of the year.

Radiolinja does not expect full-scale commercial use until the first months of 2003. Suomen 2G will struggle to make the investment case for an early 3G rollout. Telia Mobile could end up merging with Radiolinja or Suomen 2G.



France

In a Nutshell: Unique because of all the major international wireless carriers, only Orange is adequately represented in this vitally important market.

Table 7: France

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

Before the acquisition of Orange SA, France Telecom�s mobile unit was at the cutting edge of GPRS deployment. Since then, the Orange adage of �services not technology� has muted the data evangelists and left a vacuum for SFR to step into. Orange recently hit back with a fully developed mobile Internet offer for both consumers and businesses. Best of all is a flat rate of �6 per month for WAP on GPRS.

Bouygues Telecom is only marginally behind and expects to launch a retail GPRS service in the third quarter of this year. Its launch of the NTT DoCoMo-inspired i-mode in early 2003 could even catapult it into a leading position. The firm is often seen as an ideal target for a major international operator wanting to enhance its European coverage.

3G

Tiny Monaco Telecom has been operating a working 3G network for at least six months that, like the Isle of Man in the U.K., is a showcase system for Siemens AG and NEC Corp. Of the major operators, Orange has done a huge amount of testing, is running a multi-site outdoor network in Paris, and looks set for a �technical� launch before the end of the year. But Orange chief Didier Quillot has pushed back his expectations for a mass market launch to late 2003 or early 2004.

Ownership issues could slow investment at SFR. Bouygues opted out of the first licensing round but has since joined the party. There were no takers for a cut-price fourth license, which could be cause for regret in years to come.



Germany

In a Nutshell: Six 3G license holders paid a staggering €50 billion for their spectrum at auction, and consolidation now looks inevitable. Unfortunately, spectrum trading is not permitted.

Table 8: Germany

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

T-Mobile Deutschland launched GPRS in the summer of 2000, in what was largely a vanity exercise. But a major tie-up with Microsoft Corp. in spring 2002 should see Germany�s leading operator roll out a compelling range of .Net mobile services. Vodafone D2 GmbH is offering free MMS over GPRS until July 2002, when a charging structure will be put in place. E-Plus Mobilfunk GmbH recently introduced DoCoMo�s i-mode service, which should allow it retain third place.

O2 GmbH launched GPRS in January 2001 but, until recently, has struggled to gain market share. MobilCom AG is the real data laggard, although its resale model worked well for voice.

3G

The head of Vodafone D2, Juergen von Kuczkowski, expects to receive handsets in the third quarter of 2002, but his optimism is not echoed by group chief executive Chris Gent, who says they won�t begin marketing services until the second half of 2003. Telefonica-owned Group 3G UMTS GmbH, or "Quam," will begin services in the third quarter of 2002 if it can secure handsets; however, early 2003 is a more realistic projection. Many observers think it's a prime candidate for consolidation, and a merger with E-Plus is often talked about. O2 should launch in mid-2003, at roughly the same time as the rest of the O2 group.

T-Mobile chief, Rene Obermann, doesn�t expect to launch 3G services until the second half of 2003, �when the technology, handset availability, and services satisfy our high quality standards." T-Mobile had previously been aiming to cover 20 cities by the end of 2002. E-Plus is tricky to predict, because although its i-mode service is the ideal preparation, it could diminish the need for an early launch of 3G. MobilCom is in dire straits and risks falling behind if its dispute about 3G rollout strategy with major shareholder France Telecom is not resolved.



Greece

In a Nutshell: Spectrum ownership will make the decisive difference.

Table 9: Greece

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

CosmOTE Mobile Telecommunications SA was the first to provide GPRS to large enterprise customers. But Vodafone Pananfon SA hit back with a full retail and corporate offer. Since then it has pressed home its advantage by outbidding its rival for extra GSM spectrum at last year�s auction.

STET Hellas Telecommunications SA has been pushed back into third place and will struggle to make up ground on the two leaders. Info-Quest SA became the country�s fourth GSM operator after winning spectrum at auction last year but is yet to launch services of any kind.

3G

Expect Vodafone to retain its data leadership when 3G networks launch sometime in 2003. CosmOTE will face spectrum shortages before its rivals and so will also push for an early launch. License conditions require each operator to cover 40 percent of the population before the end of 2003, in time for the 2004 Olympic games. 50 percent coverage is required by the end of 2006.

Simple economics suggest that Stet Hellas won�t be able to match the investment of its larger rivals. Indeed, it had to close a �88 million rights issue last year to fund the cost of its UMTS license.



Ireland

In a Nutshell: A two-horse race.

Table 10: Ireland

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

O2 Ireland and Vodafone Ireland have the market pretty much sewn up. Both now offer GPRS, with O2 perhaps having a slight edge with its better-developed consumer offer.

The third player and recent GSM entrant, Meteor Mobile Communications Ltd., has failed to make much of an impact on the voice market, and there�s no reason to believe it can succeed with wireless data. Its decision not to apply for a 3G license demonstrates its lack of ambition in this regard.

3G

3G remains subject to license, but Vodafone and 02 look like sure bets. Hutchison Whampoa Ltd is the only other applicant and looks likely to benefit from regulatory efforts to level the playing field for new entrants. License conditions will require operators to launch services in 2004.

The Irish government has been slow to finalize the licensing process but has hopefully learned from mistakes made in the rest of Europe. Ireland represents a fairly significant gap in coverage for Orange, and there�s a fair chance it will want to offer a virtual 3G service in the future.



Italy

In a Nutshell: H3G should make a better job of breaking the Omnitel/TIM duopoly than the now bankrupt BLU.

Table 11: Italy

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

Telecom Italia Mobile SpA (TIM) is way ahead and has just announced free MMS until September for anyone who can afford the handset. It was also the first carrier to introduce the Blackberry mobile e-mail service. TIM is a staunch supporter of the GSM Association's M-Services initiative; unfortunately, everyone else is fast losing interest. Vodafone Omnitel SpA is a strong second but would benefit from introducing a flat-rate charging structure. Like all Vodafone properties, international data roaming sets it apart from the competition.

Having rejected the Orange brand, Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA must now cut its own path. As the first customer of the EJN Mobile IP Inc. (Ericsson/Juniper) mobile edge routing platform, it's moving in the right direction but remains some way off the pace. The firm, which also includes a fixed-line unit, is slated to IPO as soon as possible.

3G

The Hutchison Whampoa-backed H3G Italy SpA will launch services in 50 cities by end of 2002 and will vie with Hutchison 3G UK Ltd. and Sonera of Finland to be the first major European 3G launch. Omnitel also plans to launch by end of 2002 but has not released much detail so far.

IPSE 2000 SpA, the second new entrant, is on financial life support and is being kept alive by a �200 million cash injection from major shareholder Telef�nica M�viles. Questions remain about IPSE�s future should Telef�nica restructure its European 3G operations, as is widely expected.



Norway

In a Nutshell: Some of the best wireless data services in the world.

Table 12: Norway

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

Telenor Mobile AS is one of the truly progressive European operators. In August 2001, it became the first operator to offer over-the-air midlet (Java) download over a GSM/GPRS network. Then, in March this year, it began a free trial of MMS that became a commercial service in May. Significantly, both Telenor and rival NetCom AS have developed revenue-sharing structures to encourage wireless application developers and content providers. Both operators also offer HSCSD.

None found.

3G

All license holders missed the December 2001 deadline to launch services, but Telenor is now testing around Oslo and working with Ericsson AB to integrate its 3G network with WLAN hotspots. NetCom is also making good progress.

Last February the regulator admonished Tele2 Norge AS for "its complete lack of development, which raises doubt as to whether it actually wants to build a UMTS network." The fourth license winner, Broadband Mobile, returned its license after deciding that the business case didn�t stack up.



Portugal

In a Nutshell: The country that pioneered pre-pay voice is focused on introducing the latest data technologies as soon as possible.

Table 13: Portugal

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

Vodafone Telecel Comunica��es Pessoais SA just edges ahead, thanks to its early launch of MMS services. But Telecomunica��es M�veis Nacionais SA (TMN) is not far behind and says MMS will be offered from June 2002.

Optimus Telecomunica��es SA takes third place but can hardly be termed a laggard. Oni Way Infocomunica��es SA, a new entrant that was awarded a 3G license in 2001, was due to start offering GPRS in May 2002 via a roaming deal with TMN. However, delays in regulatory approval have set this back by several months.

3G

The government has pushed back the deadline for the start of services from January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2002, and it looks likely that all four operators will hit this target in one way or another. With Ericsson supplying all the incumbents, it will be interesting to see which operator gets preferential treatment.

OniWay has selected a Nortel Networks Corp./Siemens combination. For good measure, TMN is also using Alcatel SA, a vendor that hasn�t won many orders so far but that stands to benefit massively if it can point to a successful commercial deployment.



Spain

In a Nutshell: It's all over before it's started – Moviles dominates now and forever.

Table 14: Spain

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

Telef�nica M�viles SA�s MoviStar launched one of the first GPRS services anywhere, offers great prices, and has done a load of work on application development for export to its franchises throughout the world. Vodafone Espana has a good consumer offer, and its international roaming ability appeals to businesses and holidaymakers alike.

Somewhat unfairly, Retevisi�n M�vil SA (Amena) is seen as Spain�s ugly duckling, even though GPRS has been available for over a year. The operator�s financial position doesn�t inspire confidence.

3G

Low license fees present a great opportunity to shake up the market, but so far it hasn�t happened like that. At least the government is now standing firm on its requirement that services must begin on June 1, 2002, despite having capitulated on its earlier deadline of August 1, 2001. However, expect only skeleton services for the time being. Now that the saga of M�viles' infrastructure supplier has been sorted out (first Motorola Inc., then Nortel, and now finally Ericsson AB), serious deployment should get underway. There�s a fair chance Vodafone will fall a bit behind, given Chris Gent�s cautious stance on 3G infrastructure spending throughout the group.

The new entrant license holder, Xfera M�viles SA, is in hibernation mode, having laid off 70% of its workforce last October. On the upside, it�s understood that Nortel base stations are being deployed and that its license will not be revoked. The issue of taxes on 3G revenues rumbles on, but at least operators have a chance to start generating revenues before having to pay too much for the use of spectrum.



Sweden

In a Nutshell: Leading the way in terms of mobile Internet revenue models and 3G network sharing.

Table 15: Sweden

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

Telia Mobile AB was first to market, but subscribers showed only fleeting interest, forcing it into promotions such as three months of free GPRS for all contract and pre-pay subscribers. Free roaming throughout its Scandinavian territories is also a bonus. In December last year, Telia launched PocketMode, a mobile services marketplace that enables third-party developers to sell content and applications to mobile users. Under this scheme, Telia takes 20 percent of the fee and charges for airtime. Vodafone Sverige AB launched GPRS in December 2000 and began a large MMS field trial in September last year.

Number two GSM operator Tele2 AB waited until Autumn 2001 to launch GPRS but showed it was serious by offering a $5 per month flat rate, with no restrictions on volume.

3G

License holders must offer coverage to 99 percent of the population by the end of 2003. All the Swedish operators are involved in a complex and far-reaching set of network sharing agreements that should ease the investment burden in the short term. Hi3G Access AB is likely to launch the first services, probably using Motorola handsets, in the fourth quarter of 2002. Vodafone also says it will have some handsets before the end of the year.

Astonishingly, Telia didn�t win a license, but now it has teamed up with Tele2 for a joint network build. NCC AB -- the prime contractor for 3G Infrastructure Services (no website), a joint venture between Hi3G, Vodafone and Orange Sverige AB -- warned last year that the regulator�s 2003 deadline would not be met, due to delays in site acquisition.



Switzerland

In a Nutshell: Controls on radiation emission are six times stricter than international standards and could prove a serious constraint.

Table 16: Switzerland

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

TDC Switzerland AG, also known as Sunrise, was the first to activate a nationwide GPRS network in what was also Nokia�s first live GPRS implementation in Europe. Significantly, Orange Communications AG was the first European operator to introduce event-based billing that charges users the same rate regardless of whether "Orangeworld Services" are accessed by WAP, HSCSD or GPRS.

Swisscom Mobile AG only launched commercial services in January of this year and then, in an effort to regain lost ground, offered free access to all contract customers with a GPRS phone. Its recent launch of a Mobile Office service for corporate users and its tie-up with Vodafone PLC should also help restore credibility. 3G Mobile AG, owner of a UMTS license, is hoping to launch a GPRS service later this year via a roaming agreement.

3G

If WLAN counts, then look no further than Swisscom, which is due to offer public WLAN access in 100 hotspots by the end of 2002.

Swisscom has pushed back its 3G start date several times, with chief executive Carsten Schloter now saying he doesn�t expect to see meaningful services before 2004. Sunrise also says it will delay its launch until the end if 2003, possibly even later. Greenfield operator 3G Mobile (owned by Telef�nica M�viles) is rumored to be in all sorts of financial trouble. Publicly, Telef�nica retains its commitment to the venture, but it didn�t help when chief executive Lars Reichelt resigned last February due to a disagreement on strategy with Telef�nica's head office.



The Netherlands

In a Nutshell: With five GSM operators, the voice market is highly competitive, but choice of data services lags somewhat behind.

Table 17: The Netherlands

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

KPN Mobile NV has introduced i-mode services over its GPRS network to an enthusiastic welcome and now has a decisive lead over its main rivals. In response, Vodafone Libertel NV is revamping its Vizzavi mobile portal to include HTML-based open access services provided by some of the same content partners that are working with i-mode. O2 BV benefits from the excellent business services developed by its parent company in the UK and has developed some good domestic products with IT partners such as IBM Corp., but it is probably too small to catch up with the leaders.

As the newest entrant, it's no surprise that Ben Nederland BV�s data offer is underdeveloped. Dutchtone NV is the third-largest GSM operator, but it will not introduce GPRS until later this year, probably when it is rebranded as Orange.

3G

Vodafone began installing base stations in April 2002 and expects to launch commercial services in the top four Dutch cities in early 2003. O2 will launch in mid-2003.

KPN plans to launch at the end of 2003, with early 2004 seen as the true start date. The schedule depends partly on the popularity of i�mode and how many content and application providers can be migrated to 3G. Dutchtone and Ben are to cooperate on the buildout of their networks but have not yet indicated when they expect to start services.



U.K.

In a Nutshell: The high cost of spectrum means the 3G licence holders can't afford a long delay.

Table 18: U.K.

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

Vodafone PLC and mmO2 PLC, traditionally the two strongest carriers in the enterprise sector, were first to market and, arguably, have the strongest data service portfolios.

Orange gained credibility with its early launch of HSCSD (High Speed Circuit Switched Data), but has since fallen behind. Nonetheless, expect more noise from them over the summer. T-Mobile UK is playing catch-up but hopes to leverage its consumer-weighted subscriber base by launching the U.K.�s first MMS-over-GPRS service on June 1, 2002.

3G

O2-owned Manx Telecom Ltd. scooped the prize for the first working 3G system in Europe when it launched services on the Isle of Man in December 2001. On the mainland, greenfield operator Hutchison 3G UK Ltd. has the largest spectrum allocation and will launch a 3GPP-compliant�network at the end of 2002. Vodafone and O2 will most likely be next, but they have repeatedly pushed back network deployment, citing dual-mode handset delays. O2 chief executive Peter Erskine thinks mid-2003 is a realistic target. Chris Gent, chief executive at Vodafone, says they will begin marketing services in the second half of 2003.

Orange and T-Mobile say they'd rather talk about services than technology, and both seem to be waiting for compelling wireless apps before the big marketing push.



Bulgaria

In a Nutshell: Low mobile penetration pushes wireless data way down the agenda. The government plans a 3G auction in 2004 and believes the market could support two, or possibly three, operators.

Table 19: Bulgaria

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

Cosmo Bulgaria Mobile EAD (known as Globul), the GSM operator that began operations last September, has recently started trials of its GPRS network.

The country�s leading operator with 1.4 million subscribers, MobilTel EAD, has no 2.5G services. Analogue NMT450 operator Mobikom RTC is likely to roll out a CDMA1x network operating in the 450MHz band that could pave the way for data services sometime in the future.



Croatia

In a Nutshell: Two technically advanced GPRS operators benefit from international influence.

Table 20: Croatia

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

Hrvatske Telekomunikacije d.d. (HT), 51 percent owned by Deutsche Telekom AG, and VIPnet d.o.o., 66 percent owned by Telekom Austria AG, both launched GPRS services in 2001. HT is now working with Mobitel d.d. of Slovenia on international roaming and hopes to extend this capability to other neighbouring countries as soon as possible.

None found.

3G

Both operators are expected to be awarded 3G licenses later this year. VIPnet has already started testing UMTS equipment.

None found.



Czech Republic

In a Nutshell: An advanced set of 2.5G services is available, but progress on 3G is expected to be slow.

Table 21: Czech Republic

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

RadioMobil AS (under the Pageus brand) and EuroTel began GPRS and HSCSD services in 2001 and are still neck-and-neck with their data offers. Eurotel Praha, spol. sro recently introduced the Microsoft-based Mobile Office service, while RadioMobil followed Eurotel�s lead and made GPRS available to pre-pay users in January 2002. RadioMobil subscribers can also roam across the European and U.S. networks of its parent T-Mobile AG.

The third-place mobile operator, �esk� Mobil AS (also known as Oskar), launched its GPRS service in February 2002. However, the service is only available to contract customers.

3G

Eurotel and T-Mobile were the only bidders for licenses at last year�s auction. They are required to offer a commercial service to 90 percent of the population of Prague by 2005. Eurotel is content to wait and see how 3G develops in Western Europe before committing to an ambitious rollout.

In January 2002, the government postponed the award of a third UMTS license because of lack of interest. Oskar declined to enter last year�s auction, saying the minimum bid price was too high.



Hungary

In a Nutshell: Mobile penetration is approaching West European levels at 55 percent. The 3G licensing process was postponed last year, probably until the first half of 2003.

Table 22: Hungary

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

Westel Mobile Telecommunications Company Ltd. (majority owned by T-Mobile) leapfrogged its rival Pannon GSM Telecommunications Ltd. with the launch of commercial MMS services in April 2002. Westel also showed its independent streak by refusing to adopt the T-Mobile brand, although it has entered into an international roaming agreement. Pannon was the first carrier to offer GPRS Internet access with nationwide coverage.

Vodafone Hungary does not yet offer GPRS, but it awarded a network upgrade contract in January 2002.



Poland

In a Nutshell: Mobile data hasn’t really taken off yet, but delays to 3G mean GPRS will rule the roost. Regulators pushed back the start date for 3G services until early 2005, following a joint request from the three licence holders – PTC, Polkomtel, and Centertel PTK.

Table 23: Poland

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

PTK Centertel Sp. z.o.o., majority owned by France Telecom SA, has the leading GPRS offer and is aligned with Orange�s Europe-wide data services development program. As part of the T-Mobile Group, Polska Telefonia Cyfrowa Sp. z.o.o. (PTC), also known as Era, now offers international GPRS roaming, setting it apart from the competition.

Vodafone PLC-backed Polkomtel SA, known as Plus GSM, has a GPRS network but, so far, has done little to promote its data services. Users will not be able to roam onto Vodafone�s other European networks until the end of the year.



Romania

In a Nutshell: Dominated by the GSM carriers, but an analogue carrier is migrating to CDMA1x 450. Up to four licences could be awarded by tender before the end of 2002. Likely winners are Orange and Mobifon. Orange has already begun testing Alcatel SA equipment in Bucharest.

Table 24: Romania

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

Both Orange Romania and Mobifon SA (backed by Vodafone) offer HSCSD and GPRS. GPRS users are not yet able to roam internationally.

Telemobil SA launched a CDMA1x 450 network early this year and already offers data services. Coverage is patchy, but improving.



Russia

In a Nutshell: Unburdened by 3G license fees but not much interest in data services. The best voice growth prospects in Eastern Europe. VimpelCom has begun testing UMTS equipment from Alcatel, but otherwise not much going on. The CDMA operators are expected to upgrade to 1xEv-Do in due course.

Table 25: Russia

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

Not much happening by way of GPRS, although AO VimpelCom has just made commercial services available in Moscow.

GSM carriers Mobile TeleSystems OJSC and MegaFon say they see no demand for wireless data at present. 39 NMT450 networks have been given approval to migrate to CDMA1x. The transition is being led by Delta Telecom, which operates in St. Petersburg, and Moscow Cellular Communications. 14 other networks are expected to deploy CDMA this year.



Slovenia

In a Nutshell: Lack of appetite for 3G; licenses too expensive.

Table 26: Slovenia

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

Both si.mobil d.d. and Mobitel d.d. offer GPRS. Mobitel has an international roaming deal with Croatia�s Hrvatski Telekom. Si.mobile offers roaming via partner Telekom Austria.

None found.

3G

State-owned Mobitel is the only 3G license holder and expects to begin services in late 2003.

Si.mobile didn�t apply for a 3G license, saying the price was too high.



Slovakia

In a Nutshell: Mobile penetration rising fast.

Table 27: Slovakia

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

Orange Slovensko has the leading data service. EuroTel Bratislava AS offers HSCSD and is set to introduce GPRS later this year.

ISP Profinet.sk AS has just won a combined GSM/UMTS license but now faces an uphill race to catch up with the leaders.

3G

EuroTel and Orange were the only two bidders for UMTS licenses.

Profinet.sk will struggle to support simultaneous investment in a GSM and UMTS network, but its experience in fixed line data services will help.



The Baltic States

In a Nutshell: Operators focused on Baltic and Scandinavian partnerships.

Table 28: The Baltic States

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

In Estonia, EMT Group leads the way and was involved in the world�s first MMS roaming and interconnection trial with Sonera Corp. in February 2002. Radiolinja Estonia A/S follows in second place. Lithuania�s Omnitel UAB and Bite GSM UAB both have full retail and business GPRS offers.

Neither of Latvia�s two operators, Latvijas Mobilais Telefons SIA (LMT) and Tele2, offer GPRS. In Lithuania, Tele2 Mobile�s data services are some distance behind Omnitel and Bite GSM. Estonian operator Tele2 Eesti also does not offer GPRS.

3G

Latvia will open a 3G tender in October 2002 and award licenses in early 2003. All the region�s operators are cautious about their rollout timetables and will likely follow the lead of their Scandinavian partners.

Estonia will award 3G licenses in 2003 and expects the winners to be operating services before the end of 2004. Lithuania is unlikely to award licenses until 2003, due to lack of demand.



Turkey

In a Nutshell: Last year’s financial crisis severely hit demand for mobile phones.

Table 29: Turkey

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS has the leading data offer, which includes Mobile Office and Internet access. Telsim Mobil Telekomunikasyon Hizmetleri AS now also offers nationwide GPRS coverage.

Telecom Italia Mobile SpA -backed new entrant Aria does offer GPRS, but coverage is limited. Aycell only began voice services in December 2001.

3G

Licensing plans have been put on hold after carriers declined to participate. All operators will struggle to raise cash given the collapse of the Turkish currency.

Telsim in particular may struggle, due to its dispute over loan repayments with Nokia Corp. and Motorola Inc.



Ukraine

In a Nutshell: With only 1 in 100 people using mobile phones, wireless data can wait.

Table 30: Ukraine

Leaders

Laggards

2.5G

Ukraine Mobile Communications is currently testing GPRS before offering it to business users later this year. There are no plans for a retail offer.

Kyivstar GSM does not yet offer 2.5G data services.

3G

CST Invest Ltd. (no website) is deploying a CDMA1x network in the city of Dnepropetrovsk that offers the potential for higher data rate mobile services.

Don�t hold your breath.



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