New direct to consumer satellite services won't be disruptive but they will transform the delivery of remote broadband.
The new age of satellite has been creeping up on us for a while. Even so, it's a surprise to realize how significant it is going to be for telecom. Over the next decade direct satellite services will likely bring broadband to hundreds of millions of rural users, become a key enabler of 6G and forge a new multi-billion dollar business in direct to handset (DTH).
It won't be disruptive – but it will transform the economics of remote broadband, while the onset of seamless global mobile coverage promises to be a lucrative niche that is already attracting big corporate names.
On the broadband access side, analyst firm Euroconsult argues that the 2.6 billion people who lack broadband are a $74 billion untapped opportunity.
Currently the addressable satellite broadband market is 591 million people, with 71 million of them connecting to satellite service last year. Euroconsult tips that to rise to 150 million in 2031.
"The rollout of satellite constellations and next-generation high-throughput satellites (HTS) planned in the coming years will be crucial in helping reduce the digital divide, enabling satellite services to offer increasingly affordable entry-level satellite services," Euroconsult said. Besides direct to consumer, the other important broadband segment is mobile or WiFi backhaul, Euroconsult notes.
Just this week Telstra announced a long-term backhaul deal with OneWeb for its regional mobile network.
OneWeb backhaul to remote Australia
It means OneWeb will deliver up to 25Gb/s in capacity to rural communities that are currently backhauled by the NBN Co geo satellites that have limited capacity and poor latency (as it happens, NBN issued its own RFI to LEO providers last week).
David Thorn, OneWeb's APAC vice president, said it was a first for the company in terms of scale and integration. Telstra said the new arrangement, which will come into effect next year, will help it meet its commitment to extend mobile coverage to another 100,000 customers.
Meanwhile, we have the emerging DTH segment, foreshadowed by some Huawei and Apple devices with satellite messaging capability.
This could be a market of some scale. Consulting firm Access Partnership estimates it could be worth $15.5 billion by 2035. No wonder companies such as Apple, Qualcomm, Dish and Globalstar are already maneuvering for pole position. Access warns the business will require deep pockets and that inevitably the industry will consolidate into a handful of players.
It is being standardized through 3GPP, but a lot of work remains to be done. Besides the technical issues, it has to find spectrum, it has to deal with radio interference and regional harmonization, it has to figure out interoperability with terrestrial networks and it has to develop new licensing regimes.
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Access says DTH has the power to "transform economies, boost GDP, and increase productivity," but calls for a cautious approach to regulating the devices, urging regulatory frameworks that foster innovation while addressing the problems.
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— Robert Clark, contributing editor, special to Light Reading
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