Private wireless RAN revenues up ~40% in 2023 – Dell'Oro

The evolving scope of private wireless taken together with the fact that the $20 B+ enterprise RAN opportunity remains largely untapped is spurring interest from a broad array of participants across the ecosystem. Still, the traditional RAN suppliers are currently well-positioned in this initial phase.

Top 3 Private Wireless RAN suppliers in 2023 include Huawei, Nokia, and Ericsson.

Top 3 Private Wireless RAN suppliers in 2023 excluding China include Nokia, Ericsson, and Samsung.

The overall Private Wireless RAN forecast is mostly unchanged (+3 percent relative to the last report), reflecting the fact that our bottom-up vendor analysis vs. the initial top-down calculations is improving the market size estimates. In addition, the industry is now past the hype phase and in a better place from a forecasting perspective.

The high-level message that we have communicated for some time has not changed—private wireless is a massive opportunity, but it will take some time for enterprises to embrace private cellular technologies.

Total Private Wireless RAN revenues are projected to grow at a 21 percent CAGR over the next five years, while public RAN revenues are set to decline at a 2 percent CAGR over the same time period.

The underlying technology mix has also not changed. 5G is dominating in China, while LTE is currently dominating outside of China. Private 5G RAN revenues are expected to reach the $1 B to $2 B range by 2028.