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Probe Research suggests that events are, for the first time, beginning to hint at the possibility of total catastrophe
January 22, 2003
CEDAR KNOLLS, N.J. -- Analyst firm Probe Research has suggested in a recent report that industry-driven events are, for the first time, beginning to hint at the possibility of industry Catastrophe. Probe utilizes scenario-driven analyses to set the framework for predicting the intermediate to long-term future of the telecom industry. The firm characterizes a Catastrophe scenario as one under which any collapse would spread to the major players, resulting in a crippled industry with no entrants exerting leadership. "It should be noted that the purpose of writing about the possibilities of Catastrophe in the industry is not to encourage that result but to present a clear warning that might help industry members take steps to prevent it," explains Victor Schnee, Probe's Founder and President.Schnee believes the most disturbing part about the Catastrophe analysis is that there is ample evidence suggesting the industry itself is the partial cause of its own collapse. "Probe has been writing about a wide range of scenarios for over a decade. In earlier years it was always assumed that only the confluence of a number of extreme external events could trigger a Catastrophe scenario in the industry. Now, this is not necessarily exclusively the case."Probe explains the industry's current situation as being under the Sargasso Sea scenario – an industry adrift with little change, dynamics at low ebb, and demand stifled with a slowdown in the rates of change and growth. Schnee is hoping that industry executives heed the warning before Sargasso Sea gives in to Catastrophe, as he feels "…there are other, more preferable scenarios we foresee that have much better implications for all industry players." Probe Research Inc.
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