China's new export controls could hit 5G networks

In the latest escalation of the trans-Pacific tech war, China has threatened to limit supplies of key materials for 5G networks and optical fiber. All exports of gallium and germanium will require a permit from August 1, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced Monday.

China is the world's biggest producer of gallium, accounting for 98% of the world output last year, according to the US Geological Survey. Gallium nitride (GaN), valued for its high efficiency and low power consumption, is key for the 5G basestation chips and EV chargers, while gallium arsenide (GaaS) is used in LEDs and some lasers.

China also supplies around 60% of the world's germanium, which is essential for optical fiber and high-speed computer chips.

News of the export controls comes days after the Netherlands announced rules on semiconductor equipment exports, due to take effect from September 1, which will prevent China from obtaining ASML's most advanced lithography gear.

It also falls on the eve of a visit to Beijing by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, indicating Beijing hopes it will provide some leverage in its efforts to ease US hi-tech restrictions.

It is too early to know how the new export regime will be enforced.

Lacks the US weaponry

But it is quite likely it will be part-performative, part-warning shot, and with limited economic impact, similar to the ban on memory firm Micron – the smallest of the major US chip firms in China. Micron was declared to be an unspecified "network security risk" and prohibited from all infrastructure projects. Micron has warned it could affect half of its business in China, which accounts for a quarter of total sales.

China is walking a careful line here. It doesn't have the same weaponry as the US in the contest for tech supremacy, and is trying to position its actions as defensive rather than escalating the contest. That's why its counter-strikes are more focused and symbolic rather than aiming to inflict serious damage.

Additionally, it must weigh the market effects of a tighter supply of key materials. As Bloomberg has reported (paywall applies), the licensing controls on the two rare metals may simply accelerate efforts by US and allies to reduce their dependence on China.

"There may be some initial shock to the markets and firms but over time, should these restrictions persist, markets and firms adjust," Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, told Bloomberg.

There is a precedent. After China temporarily blocked rare earth sales to Japan over a maritime incident in 2010, countries like the US and Australia ramped up production and China's total share of rare earth output has since fallen from 98% to 70%.

An editorial in the English-language China Daily said the US and the Netherlands should be held responsible for any disruptions to the supply chain. The blame "should never be shifted to China as it's defending its own legal national interests in this rather uncertain world," it said.

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— Robert Clark, Contributing Editor, special to Light Reading