Instead, DWDM sales will lag those of Sonet/SDH equipment from now through at least 2008, according to forecasts in "Optical Networks: DWDM and SONET 2003 - 2008."

Unfortunately, though, a lack of traffic to justify buying high-speed interfaces in quantity, plus the optical bust of the last two years, have taken the wind out of DWDM research and development. "Contraction at the component level has slowed the wheel of innovation," says Robert Rosenberg, president of Insight Research. Without further infusion, it's unlikely DWDM gear will develop to the point where carriers will be motivated to swap it in place of existing Sonet gear.
One bright spot in the DWDM market is CWDM (coarse wavelength-division multiplexing), which is likely to be the sole source of growth for the technology in the near term. Indeed, metro deployments of CWDM are the only source of prosperity for optical gear right now, Rosenberg says.
While the Sonet market will return to its pre-boom levels over the next three years, carriers eventually will start to look more critically at Sonet's complexities compared with optical switching. But Sonet won't be widely replaced by DWDM anytime in the next decade.
— Mary Jander, Senior Editor, Light Reading
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