Ovum-RHK Forecasts Optical

LONDON -- Ovum-RHK expects global datacom optical components (OC) sales to grow at an 11 percent compounded annual growth rate from $728 million in 2005 to $1.34 billion in 2011. Ethernet transceivers will lead the market growth, with the LAN market transitioning from 1 to 10 Gbps and Fibre Channel transceivers in the storage market transitioning to 4 Gbps and then 8 Gbps. While 10 GigE switch ports are shipping today, real deployments of the most attractive opportunity over the long run-covering 300 meters on legacy multimode fiber-will not begin until 2008. This sub segment will continue to grow substantially even after 2011. Volume shipments of Fibre channel transceivers at 8 Gbps will not begin until 2009. Notwithstanding these opportunities, component vendors are challenged with providing a cost-effective solution that meets the market demand.

"While the market demand for higher data-rate transceivers presents excellent revenue opportunities for component suppliers," said Dr. Daryl Inniss, Vice President, Optical Components at Ovum-RHK, "I am worried that the challenging cost requirements create unhealthy financial positions for suppliers. Furthermore, the market needs to define a form factor that gives vendors the opportunity to recoup the research and development invested to produce the high data-rate transceivers."

Ovum RHK Inc.