Both DSLAM and CMTS revenues increased 14% in Q4 compared with the same quarter the previous year, says Infonetics

February 24, 2005

3 Min Read

SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Worldwide total DSL aggregation hardware DSL ports increased 9% in 4Q04, following an 11% increase in 3Q04, and revenue is up 14% to $1.4 billion, according to Infonetics Research latest market share report, "DSL Aggregation Hardware."

For the year, ports are up 18% and revenue is up 8% to over $5 billion. DSL ports will continue steady single-digit annual growth through 2008, while revenue will slow slightly in 2005, then remain flat overall through 2008.

"DSL subscribers grew 41% in North America between 2003 and 2004, reaching close to 17 million," said Michael Howard, principal analyst of Infonetics Research and author of the report. "North American DSL service providers are provisioning DSL subscribers nearly as fast as their rival MSOs. Pretty soon, the number of DSL subscribers will come close to matching cable broadband subscribers: we expect 30 million DSL and 32 million cable broadband subscribers in North America by 2008. Continued strong growth is expected in large part because VoIP over DSL is no longer clouded with regulated tariff issues now that the FCC has given RBOCs the right not to lease new fiber deployments to the competition."

4Q04/2004 DSL Aggregation Hardware Market Highlights

  • Worldwide DSL subscribers grew 68% to 97 million between 2003 and 2004, and are projected to reach over 190 million in 2008

  • Alcatel leads in worldwide DSL aggregation hardware DSL port and revenue market share for 4Q04 and for the year

  • Huawei is a distant second in both DSL ports and revenue for 4Q04; Lucent is third in ports share and UTStarcom is third in revenue share

  • In 2004, worldwide total IP DSLAM revenue approached $700 million, up 58% from 2003, and is projected to make up 69% of total DSLAM revenue by 2008

  • VDSL port shipments have been growing briskly in IP DSLAMs, from 12% of IP DSLAM ports in 2003 to 52% in 2008

  • 36% of 2004 total DSL revenue was from EMEA, 33% was from Asia Pacific, 23% from North America, and 8% from CALA

In a separate release:

SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Worldwide CMTS revenue posted the strongest year-over-year growth ever in 2004, jumping 57% from 2003 to $667 million, according to Infonetics Research's "Cable Aggregation Hardware" quarterly worldwide market share and forecast report.

"Worldwide CMTS revenue took an even bigger jump than is normally expected in the seasonally strong fourth quarter, up an amazing 14% from 3Q04 to 4Q04 to $193 million," said Michael Howard, principal analyst of Infonetics Research and lead author of the report. "This is the seventh quarterly increase in a row in the CMTS market. The overall strength of the quarter is due to solid results from Cisco, Motorola, and Arris, who together capture 89% of the worldwide market revenue."

The number of worldwide cable broadband subscribers also grew nicely year-over-year, increasing 22% to 41 million from 2003 to 2004. Steady growth in cable broadband subscribers is expected at least through 2008. The major drivers for cable aggregation are more bandwidth for consumers and business and growing VoIP services.

North America continues to be the regional stronghold of cable broadband subscribers, with 22.4 million subscribers in 2004, 26% more than in 2003, and now represents 55% of the world total. Asia Pacific has the second highest number of subscribers, representing 25% of the world total.

2004 CMTS Market Highlights

  • Cisco increased its worldwide lead to over 50% revenue and port market share

  • Motorola increased its share as well, maintaining second place in worldwide revenue and port market share

  • Arris continues in the number-three spot for both revenue and port market share worldwide

  • 52% of CMTS revenue comes from North America, 27% from EMEA, 18% from Asia Pacific, and 3% from CALA; these numbers will continue to shift some away from North America as MSOs in Asia Pacific and EMEA continue increasing their data offerings

Infonetics Research Inc.

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