China Mobile is finally expected to debut its commercial 5G messaging service next month, three years behind schedule.

The service, based on RCS, and capable of seamlessly integrating video, image and voice, is to launch on December 1, according to domestic media reports.

China Mobile and the two other big telcos, China Telecom and China Unicom, unveiled their 5G messaging plans in April 2020, declaring commercial service would start by year-end.

It took until the end of 2021 when China Unicom became first to market, followed by China Telecom in January 2022.

But with China Mobile accounting for more than half of all the revenue and three-fifths of the subscribers, this new service needs the participation of the local heavyweight.

It's not clear why China Mobile has delayed its market entry, although analysts believe it was waiting for policy backing from regulators and the support of the handset sector.

The standard is already widely deployed in handsets, with more than 300 models supporting it as of May, according to the 5G messaging work group.

China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) codified that in July with a ruling that all new handsets applying for approval must support the standard. It also stipulated that all operators must provide interconnection and end-to-end service.

Biggest growth driver

As to the progress of the product in the marketplace, China Telecom and China Unicom have so far issued scant detail. Neither has referenced it in any stock exchange filing. 

But just last week, Cong Linlin, China Telecom's head of government and enterprise information services, revealed at an industry forum the company had 400 5G messaging customers who sent 2.5 billion messages last year.

He said the telco was focusing on ten industry verticals, including government and finance, and had created 35 model use cases. Next year it aims to sign up more than 1,000 enterprise customers, he said.

Telcos are betting that they can persuade businesses to use 5G messaging for customer and marketing communication as a feature-rich alternative to OTT messaging.  

But without knowing pricing and business models, it's hard to get a sense of how well this service will be received.

Juniper Research believes RCS-based services like 5G messaging will be the biggest driver of business messaging growth over the next four years. It forecasts worldwide operator business messaging traffic will rise from 1.9 trillion this year to 2.8 trillion in 2027.