Light Reading
Last-minute pricing cut and CEO intervention has enabled Alcatel-Lucent to snatch long-haul WDM contract.

Analyst: Infinera Loses VZ Deal to AlcaLu

Carol Wilson
1/21/2014
100%
0%

A telecom industry financial analyst says that Alcatel-Lucent has won a $100 million Verizon optical contract, which would be bad news for Infinera, the company that had been thought to be the front-runner for deal.

Infinera Corp. (Nasdaq: INFN) had been seen as the favorite to join Ciena Corp. (NYSE: CIEN) as a second supplier to Verizon with long-haul WDM optical equipment in what was pegged to be a $100 million contract. Wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM) equipment can help pump up the bandwidth of long-haul fiber optic networks.(See Is Infinera Set for Verizon 100G Deal? and Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM).)

George Notter, managing director of equity research for communications infrastructure at Jefferies & Co. Inc. , says he's revising his price target for Infinera's stock down from $12 to $8, based on not winning the long-sought Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) second supplier deal.

Notter also notes his sources are crediting the last-minute involvement of Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) Michel Combes and some major price-cutting for the French vendor's victory at Verizon.

"We're told that pricing was exceedingly low -- in fact it was 'well below market pricing' for WDM gear," Notter says in an email note. "The anecdote serves as another reminder that the best technology doesn't always win in the Communications Infrastructure space. We understood that Infinera's DTN-X platform was heavily favored by Verizon’s technology people. Relationships and pricing can go a long way -- particularly for equipment suppliers like Alcatel-Lucent which have the clout to sell their infrastructure within the C-suite at Verizon."

Losing Verizon would have a significant impact on Infinera because of the effort and resources the equipment maker has invested in trying to win the business, Notter notes, as well as the inability to use Verizon as a reference account to win other business.

"These activities include joint product testing/evaluation, trials, and technology analysis," he writes. "Also, we believe that much of its work on integrating Ethernet/MPLS Switching technology was oriented around the RBOC's second source deal. Verizon is somewhat unique among major carriers around the world -- they've been very interested in embedding these capabilities into the Optical Transport network layer."

Alcatel-Lucent and Verizon both declined to comment on the report. Infinera was unavailable for comment.

— Carol Wilson, Editor-at-Large, Light Reading

(25)  | 
Comment  | 
Print  | 
Newest First  |  Oldest First  |  Threaded View
Page 1 / 3   >   >>
tojofay
50%
50%
tojofay,
User Rank: Moderator
1/30/2014 | 11:27:34 AM
Re: ALU business model
Indeed. Where did Simona of GS go? 
rgrutza600
100%
0%
rgrutza600,
User Rank: Lightning
1/29/2014 | 6:22:24 PM
Re: ALU business model
Infinera has 15 Tier One customers globally.
rgrutza600
100%
0%
rgrutza600,
User Rank: Lightning
1/29/2014 | 6:18:35 PM
Re: ALU business model
Infinera acknowledged winning Level 3 business in their CC today although they did not say their name.  Highly interesting conference call.
TGIR2
0%
100%
TGIR2,
User Rank: Light Beer
1/24/2014 | 1:40:05 PM
Re: ALU business model
Sterling,  There is quite a difference in their current product vs the DTN however.  The DTN-X is a big iron solution which looks like it was developed for the Tier 1 customers.  You add bandwidth in 500G chunks.  ( I realize they have a pay as you go option but still ).  The DTN actually looked like a box developed for the other category.  They sold it to a rural cooperative in Georgia (a 4 county network) for example.  It's hard to see how they can be successful with the DTN-X without capturing some of the Tier 1s.  It certainly puts more pressure on them to get Level 3.
sterlingperrin
50%
50%
sterlingperrin,
User Rank: Lightning
1/23/2014 | 2:48:32 PM
Re: ALU business model
As a back of the envelope analysis:

NA LH DWDM was about $900 million in 2012, of which $550 million (at most) would have gone to AT&T + Verizon. AT&T and Verizon capex combined in 2012 was about $35 billion which puts their LH DWDM spend at about 1.6% of capex (or lower). If you include regional DWDM spend as well, then the % ticks up a little.

Sterling
rgrutza600
50%
50%
rgrutza600,
User Rank: Lightning
1/22/2014 | 6:52:04 PM
Re: ALU business model
RE:When you think about the percentage of North American capex contributed from AT&T and Verizon

 

It would be nice to have a breakout for how much of that cap ex goes towards long-haul.  It seems like it is an almost insignificant portion of their cap ex compared to wireless.  Level 3 spends $200 million/quarter with zero towards wireless, but their fiber network dwarfs VZ or T.
rgrutza600
100%
0%
rgrutza600,
User Rank: Lightning
1/22/2014 | 6:46:14 PM
Re: ALU business model
Other people's money is always the best source of funding.  Thank you President Hollande and Karl Marx. <G>
peebee1
50%
50%
peebee1,
User Rank: Light Beer
1/22/2014 | 9:35:40 AM
Re: ALU business model
Surely ALU wouldnt be selling below cost, its far more likely Ciena has been ripping Verizon off for way too long!
sterlingperrin
50%
50%
sterlingperrin,
User Rank: Lightning
1/22/2014 | 9:34:52 AM
Re: ALU business model
I can't confirm whether this is true or not, so just posting based on the published report. My first read was that this is a horrendous development for the future of Infinera. But then I started thinking about Infinera's history in the 10G market.

They actually rose to become the leading North American supplier of long haul DWDM equipment (very quickly) without ever having AT&T or Verizon as their customers. When you think about the percentage of North American capex contributed from AT&T and Verizon, it's pretty amazing that a supplier can go anywhere without these two. But Infinera did that.

On the ALU win itself (again, based on the published report), I am also surprised. Infinera has been courting Verizon for a long time and there was a history of collaboration between the Infinera and VZ technical teams. I did not see that collaboration occurring between ALU and VZ.

Sterling
chuckj
100%
0%
chuckj,
User Rank: Light Sabre
1/22/2014 | 1:25:09 AM
Re: ALU business model
French subsidizing US infrastructure, that can't be a bad thing.
Page 1 / 3   >   >>
Flash Poll
From The Founder
It's clear to me that the communications industry is divided into two types of people, and only one is living in the real world.
LRTV Interviews
Liberty Global Sees Business Goldmine

12|18|14   |     |   (0) comments


Steen Sorensen, VP of business services for Liberty Global, explains where the giant international MSO sees growth potential.
LRTV Documentaries
EE: The Road to 5G

12|16|14   |   16:02   |   (1) comment


Andy Sutton, the principal network architect at UK mobile operator EE, explains how his company is using Wembley stadium as a wireless test bed and how that's helping EE to plan the evolution to 5G.
LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
Highlights of Huawei's NFV Open Cloud Forum 2014

12|16|14   |     |   (0) comments


Huawei hosted its inaugural NFV Open Cloud Forum during the SDN & OpenFlow World Congress 2014 in Düsseldorf, Germany. The Forum brought together technology thought leaders, senior executives and telecom professionals from global carriers, industry associations, as well as other partner companies in the ecosystem, to exchange views on and collectively explore how ...
LRTV Custom TV
Realizing Operators' Digital Vision

12|16|14   |   5:23   |   (0) comments


Leveraging technology is fundamental to digital transformation but understanding customers and serving them really well is at the heart of digital businesses. TM Forum lists the following as the strategic pillars of the digital business: business agility and rapid innovation, operational agility and effectiveness, IT and data centricity, plus customer centricity. ...
LRTV Documentaries
US Cellular Injects Analytics Into LTE

12|16|14   |   2:57   |   (1) comment


US Cellular's Mario Vela explains how the operator uses analytics for network planning and what comes next as the carrier looks to eke more value out of its metrics.
LRTV Interviews
How Cox Biz Plans to Keep Growing

12|15|14   |     |   (2) comments


Steve Rowley, SVP of Cox Business, details how the third-biggest US MSO intends to boost its revenues to $2 billion and beyond over the rest of the decade
LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
Interview With Bill Zhang, Director of SoftCOM Product Management, Huawei

12|15|14   |   2:50   |   (0) comments


Bill Zhang elaborated on Huawei's open philosophy in NFV solution development and network architecture design at the SDN & OpenFlow World Congress 2014.
LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
Event Highlights: Huawei at SDN & OpenFlow World Congress 2014

12|15|14   |   3:43   |   (0) comments


Huawei joined the 2014 SDN & OpenFlow Congress as one of the key sponsors and contributors. At the event, Huawei reinforced the openness and flexibility of its network infrastructure strategies, and provided updates on its SDN and NVF innovations. Through participations at the exhibitions, forums and speeches, Huawei encouraged the industry to "think bigger and ...
LRTV Interviews
How Cable Biz Services Hit $10B Mark

12|12|14   |     |   (1) comment


Cable operators reached $10 billion in annual business services revenues by delving deeper into their vertical markets and expanding beyond the smallest firms.
LRTV Documentaries
Mediacom Aims to Test Connected Tractors

12|11|14   |   05:07   |   (3) comments


Cable business service provider is taking its services to the 'agribusiness' sector in partnership with farm equipment specialist John Deere and is getting involved in Gigabit Cities developments.
LRTV Interviews
TWC Business Looks Beyond $3B

12|10|14   |     |   (0) comments


TWC Business Services chief Phil Meeks explains how his unit has reached $3 billion in annual revenues and what its plans are for next year.
LRTV Documentaries
AT&T's New Security Strategy

12|10|14   |   02:36   |   (1) comment


AT&T's Chief Security Officer Ed Amoroso explains how his company is wrapping virtual security layers around micro network domains.
Upcoming Live Events
February 10, 2015, The Westin Peachtree Plaza, Atlanta, GA
March 17, 2015, The Cable Center, Denver, CO
April 14, 2015, The Westin Times Square, New York City, NY
May 6, 2015, McCormick Convention Center, Chicago, IL
May 13-14, 2015, The Westin Peachtree, Atlanta, GA
June 9-10, 2015, Chicago, IL
Hot Topics
Vodafone to Ride T-Mobile Back Into US
Dan Jones, Mobile Editor, 12/12/2014
1-Gig: Coming to a Small Town Near You
Jason Meyers, Senior Editor, Gigabit Cities/IoT, 12/17/2014
T-Mobile, BlackBerry Flirt With Reuniting
Sarah Reedy, Senior Editor, 12/17/2014
Gardner's Departure a Cautionary Tale
Carol Wilson, Editor-at-large, 12/12/2014
T-Mobile Lights Up 27 Wideband LTE Cities
Sarah Reedy, Senior Editor, 12/15/2014
Like Us on Facebook
Twitter Feed
Upcoming Webinars
Webinar Archive