& cplSiteName &

iPhone 5 Could Cause Local Data Crunches in US

Dan Jones
LR Mobile News Analysis
Dan Jones, Mobile Editor
9/21/2012
50%
50%

The near-doubling of Long Term Evolution (LTE) users on U.S. networks in the coming days and weeks -- thanks to the iPhone 5 -- could cause localized data congestion and slowdowns that will mostly affect existing users of 4G smartphones and tablets.

Light Reading Mobile caught up with Bill Moore, CEO of RootMetrics , Friday afternoon after the launch of Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL)'s first 4G smartphone to talk about the likely impact of the device on AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), Sprint Corp. (NYSE: S) and Verizon Wireless 's fledgling LTE networks.

(Check out What We Mean When We Say '4G' if you want a refresher on what LTE actually is.) RootMetrics surveys 3G and 4G network performance, with help from an app that users can install on their own smartphones. Moore says the testing area covers the "top 75 urbanized areas" in the United States.

So what's going to happen with the new iPhone, Bill?

The bad news
Moore estimates there are up to 12 million to 13 million 4G LTE users currently in the U.S., and "they're predicting the iPhone 5 could sell 10 million in the first week," he says.

"That's a lot of new people on 4G all of a sudden. You've got a kind of doubling effect that could occur across the various networks, so that could lead to congestion and slowdowns," suggests Moore. "Plus, LTE users use their phone for data much more than 3G users, so that's going to be a challenge."

He suspects that -- given the still spotty nature of 4G LTE deployments -- any impact will be felt in specific towns or cities rather than nationwide.

"It isn't going to crunch every city. It's going to be localized if it happens," he says "The slowdown would be experienced by people that are already on the network."

That's most likely to be someone with an Android smartphone, as it happens. Verizon, for instance, sold 2.5 million Droids in the second quarter. (See iPhone 5: A 4G Stress Test.)

The mitigating factors
Wireless being the fluid, shared medium that it is, Moore stresses that it is difficult to give any exact predictions about iPhone LTE coverage and problems.

Much, he suggests, depends on how "informed" the average consumer is about 4G LTE and whether they know that Big Red's 370-plus LTE footprint dwarfs its nearest rival in coverage across the U.S. -- although Verizon's pioneering 4G push means its network is also the heaviest loaded LTE network in the U.S. so far.

  • If many people switch to Verizon as their 4G provider over AT&T, it could stress some of Verizon's 4G towns and cities.
  • If AT&T's users stick by them for LTE and get the traditional iPhone subscriber bump, it could spell trouble for some of that operator's 72 LTE cities. (See AT&T Touts Best-Ever iPhone Sales.)
  • Sprint? Moore expects it's least likely to be affected.


The ironic twist
Apple and its carrier partners could be saved by the very success of the iPhone. Apple sold more than 2 million in pre-sales, so shipping dates for many of the devices have been pushed out by two weeks or more.

This could give carriers time to examine the impact of the new iPhone and start to put load-balancing and capacity measures in place to deal with the anticipated influx of data-hungry 4G iPhonistas.

Check out more of our iPhone 5 coverage here.

— Dan "Dick Clark" Jones, Site Editor, Light Reading Mobile

(2)  | 
Comment  | 
Print  | 
Newest First  |  Oldest First  |  Threaded View        ADD A COMMENT
joset01
50%
50%
joset01,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:20:36 PM
re: iPhone 5 Could Cause Local Data Crunches in US


Let us know if you experience congestion with your new iPhone or existing LTE Android. DJ.

joset01
50%
50%
joset01,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/5/2012 | 5:20:26 PM
re: iPhone 5 Could Cause Local Data Crunches in US


Definitely not enough for evidence yet but could this be an early sign of data crunches I wonder. I will ask Verizon but it not likely something they want to admit.

From The Founder
Download our complete guide to de-risking NFV deployment in 2016, including:
  • An eight-step strategy to deploying NFV safely, based on input from the companies that have already started virtualizing their production networks.
  • Interviews with leading executives at Colt, AT&T, Deutsche Telekom, Cisco, Nokia, ZTE, Ericsson and Heavy Reading.
  • Flash Poll
    Live Streaming Video
    Prepping for the Future: Upskill U Explained
    During this short kick-off video, Doug Webster, Vice President of Service Provider Marketing, Cisco, and Light Reading’s CEO & Founder Steve Saunders give an overview of Upskill U.
    LRTV Documentaries
    LRTV Report: Mobile Core Innovation

    4|28|16   |   25:32   |   (0) comments


    Hear from multiple industry experts from Deutsche Telekom, SK Telecom, Heavy Reading, Huawei, Cisco, Ericsson, Nokia, NEC and many more about developments in the mobile core as operators virtualize their IMS and evolved packet core systems and prepare for a 5G world.
    LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
    NFV World Congress Highlight

    4|26|16   |     |   (0) comments


    The highlight of the NFV World Congress contains exciting telecom news. Join us for an inside look at Huawei's ICT 2020 plan and its latest collaboration with industry leaders.
    LRTV Interviews
    Unified Comms Finds Its Voice

    4|25|16   |   03:44   |   (0) comments


    Peter Quinlan, VP of UCC Product Management at Tata Communications, talks about the evolution of the unified communications and collaboration services sector and how voice is now a big part of current developments.
    LRTV Documentaries
    So... What Do We Do Now?

    4|25|16   |   03:24   |   (0) comments


    After a long hiatus, Max Dingman, the CEO of a GeeGhiz, returns for a motivational board room pep talk.
    LRTV Documentaries
    NAB 2016 Highlights

    4|21|16   |     |   (0) comments


    Light Reading's Cable/Video Practice Leader Alan Breznick climbs down from the slots to tell us about the latest news in broadcast technology at NAB 2016 in Las Vegas.
    Between the CEOs
    CEO Chat: Deepfield's Craig Labovitz

    4|21|16   |     |   (0) comments


    In this latest installment of the CEO Chat series, Craig Labovitz, co-founder and CEO of Deepfield, sits down with Light Reading's Steve Saunders in Light Reading's New York City office to discuss how Deepfield fits in with the big data trend and more.
    Shades of Ray
    Leading Lights 2016: Shortlists Announced

    4|20|16   |   0:53   |   (0) comments


    The judging is over and the Leading Lights 2016 shortlists have been published -- you can see who made the cut by clicking on this link.
    LRTV Custom TV
    Introducing MulteFire – Qualcomm at MWC 2016

    4|18|16   |   3.29   |   (0) comments


    MulteFire is the latest option for using LTE in unlicensed spectrum. As oppose to its close 'siblings', LAA and LTE-U, MulteFire operates solely in unlicensed spectrum, which enables it to offer the best of two worlds – LTE-like performance with WiFi-like deployment simplicity. In this interview, Sanjeev Athalye, Sr. Director, Product Management at Qualcomm ...
    Between the CEOs
    CEO Chat: Grant Van Rooyen of Cologix

    4|18|16   |     |   (0) comments


    Grant van Rooyen, president and CEO of Cologix, sits down with Steve Saunders, founder and CEO of Light Reading, in the vendor's New Jersey facility to offer an inside look at the company's success story and discuss the importance of security in the telecom industry.
    LRTV Huawei Video Resource Center
    ONS 2016 – Demonstration of Huawei's NetMatrix Multi-Vendor SDN Orchestrator

    4|15|16   |     |   (0) comments


    This demonstration shows how Huawei's NetMatrix SDN Orchestrator (SDN-O) addresses an operator's core service agility needs for services spanning multi-domain, multivendor networks: it includes a demonstration of:
    - Rapid New Service Design: using YANG to model a complex example of multi-domain, multivendor L3VPN network connectivity service that ...
    LRTV Custom TV
    AT&T Wants to Own North Carolina

    4|15|16   |     |   (1) comment


    Venessa Harrison, president of North Carolina for AT&T, tells how the company will expand its GigaPower service beyond the seven N.C. cities it already serves.

  • This blog, sponsored by AT&T, is the second part of a ten-part series examining next-generation broadband technologies titled "Behind the Speeds."
  • LRTV Interviews
    Will NC Be First Gigabit State?

    4|15|16   |     |   (1) comment


    Alan Fitzpatrick, co-founder of Charlotte Hearts Gigabit, spells out the state's progress in at least starting to wire nearly every major market for gigabit service.
    Upcoming Live Events
    May 23, 2016, Austin, TX
    May 23, 2016, Austin Convention Center
    May 24-25, 2016, Austin Convention Center, Austin, TX
    September 13-14, 2016, The Curtis Hotel, Denver, CO
    December 6-8, 2016,
    June 16-18, 2017, Austin Convention Center, Austin, TX
    All Upcoming Live Events
    Infographics
    A new survey conducted by Heavy Reading and TM Forum shows that CSPs around the world see the move to digital operations as a necessary part of their overall virtualization strategies.
    Hot Topics
    Ultra-Broadband Summit, Hong Kong
    Iain Morris, News Editor, 4/27/2016
    GoT Fans Curse HBO (Not Right) Now
    Mari Silbey, Senior Editor, Cable/Video, 4/25/2016
    Mitel Asks: What Time of Day Do You Shower?
    Mitch Wagner, West Coast Bureau Chief, Light Reading, 4/25/2016
    Analysts More Than Bullish on Comcast MVNO
    Mari Silbey, Senior Editor, Cable/Video, 4/22/2016
    Charter Jumps Gun on TWC Restructuring
    Mari Silbey, Senior Editor, Cable/Video, 4/26/2016
    Like Us on Facebook
    Twitter Feed
    BETWEEN THE CEOs - Executive Interviews
    In this latest installment of the CEO Chat series, Craig Labovitz, co-founder and CEO of Deepfield, sits down with Light Reading's Steve Saunders in Light Reading's New York City office to discuss how Deepfield fits in with the big data trend and more.
    Grant van Rooyen, president and CEO of Cologix, sits down with Steve Saunders, founder and CEO of Light Reading, in the vendor's New Jersey facility to offer an inside look at the company's success story and discuss the importance of security in the telecom industry.
    Animals with Phones
    Live Digital Audio

    Of all the tech companies in the Valley, Intel has made the most aggressive commitment to building a diverse and inclusive workplace culture. It's doing so by taking concrete, measurable steps, making a large financial investment and through a commitment to complete transparency about its progress. In this radio show, WiC Director Sarah Thomas will be joined by Shlomit Weiss, Intel's Vice President, Data Center Group, and General Manager of Networking Engineering, who will share with us why Intel is tackling this huge challenge, how and to what effect. She will also discuss her unique experiences leading development of Client SOC development in the past and today leading development of all of the chipmaker's silicon hardware for networking IPs and discrete devices and managing a team of 600 engineers across Israel, Europe and the US.