RVA predicts $150B invested in U.S. residential fiber in next five years

TULSA, Oklahoma – RVA's detailed analysis in "2024-2028 North American Fiber Broadband Report: FTTH and 5G Review And Forecast", shows the rationale for expecting $150 Billion spent on residential fiber (FTTH or Fiber to the home) in the United States over the next five years - more than all the capital spent to date on fiber. Funding availability from network operator capex reinvestment, private equity investment, and government subsidy are all expected to reach unprecedented levels in parallel, though full utilization of these resources will be limited by constraints such as workforce availability, permitting delays etc., especially in the period 2026-2028.

While homes passed are expected to reach record levels during the period, the report explains why the route miles of fiber to support this activity will increase at a faster rate - nearly double the rate of home passings.

Deployment is expected from many types of service providers – Telecom companies, Cable MSOs, Private competitive providers, municipalities, rural electric cooperatives, and others. Although Tier 1 telephone companies remain the largest segment in the five-year deployment cycle, their share of FTTH homes passed annually is forecast to fall from a high of 93% in 2006 and 58% in 2023 to 42% by 2028.

Canada and the Caribbean are also expected to see continued growth, though not at the same rate.

There are many underlying drivers for the unprecedented build cycle highlighted in the report. Based on RVA LLC market operator and consumer research for the Fiber Broadband Association, the market has spoken in support of end-to-end fiber versus all other Internet delivery methods. A total of 63% of all internet users now say they would prefer fiber if they had a choice, versus 24% Coax, and 13% wireless,

DSL, or satellite. Because of this rising preference, overall average FTTH take rates are expected to increase even during construction acceleration.

The new RVA 2024 forecast report examines the consumer and competitive FTTH drivers and constraints, and details the history and forecast for many different classifications of FTTH providers. The report explores the total available market including second fiber passings in many areas. In addition, the report includes a forecast for the use of fiber to support 5G small cells, data centers, and other purposes.

Background data is based on extensive original research and quantitative analysis in the past year involving public data and interviews with hundreds of network operators, vendors, and industry experts, as well consumer surveys of over 3,000 online users of all types of broadband.

RVA LLC