C-band on track to be America's biggest spectrum auction ever

The C-band spectrum auction for 5G on Friday passed the $25 billion threshold after roughly nine days and 30 rounds of bidding. It shows no signs of slowing down.

According to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, the event could end with $47 billion in total bids, based on the trajectory of bidding. That would push the event past the $45 billion raised in 2015 by the AWS-3 spectrum auction, and make C-band America's biggest-ever spectrum auction.

Indeed, the AWS-3 auction, dubbed Auction 97 by the FCC, stretched across 45 and 341 rounds of bidding. According to figures provided by BitPath's Sasha Javid, the C-band auction – dubbed Auction 107 – is tracking Auction 97 very closely in terms of demand.

Perhaps that's no surprise. According to the financial analysts at New Street research, the massive 280MHz worth of licenses up for grabs in the C-band auction will help to increase the total amount of spectrum available to all 5G carriers by 38%.

"This will be particularly productive spectrum because it can support wide channels, massive MIMO and beamforming," the analysts wrote in a recent report to investors. "As such it increases capacity in the hands of the carriers by 64%."

Incredibly, the New Street analysts wrote to investors on Friday that the C-band auction appears on track to "blow through" their forecast of $52 billion in total bids.

There are a few key takeaways from these eye-watering figures:

The financial analysts at MoffettNathanson wrote just prior to the start of the C-band auction that the event is "the most important wireless auction of our time. Who 'wins' the C-band auction will shape the competitive dynamics of 5G for a decade."

The analysts explained that the C-band is ideally suited for 5G due to the massive, 100MHz blocks up for auction that sit squarely between operators' existing lowband and highband spectrum holdings.

"The C-band may well be the last bite at the apple for a very long time to come; there is precious little additional midband spectrum in the FCC's pipeline, and nothing with similarly large block widths," the wrote. "Yes, the stakes really are that high."

As in previous FCC auctions, no one knows which entities are bidding for which licenses during the auction. The FCC only discloses the amount of each bid on each license during each round. The agency will announce the winners, after tabulating the results, once the auction is over.

As in previous FCC spectrum auctions, the C-band auction includes several rounds of bidding per day. It will end when bidders stop bidding – many expect that to happen sometime early next year.

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— Mike Dano, Editorial Director, 5G & Mobile Strategies, Light Reading | @mikeddano