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Cisco Takes Another Video Hit

Alan Breznick
8/14/2014

Despite some restructuring and re-tooling, Cisco's service provider video business remains in the dumps.

In the latest earnings results, Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO) reported late Wednesday that its service provider segment revenues declined 11% on a year-on-year basis in its fiscal fourth quarter, which ended July 26. Service provider video contributed heavily to that decline, with video orders dropping 13% from a year ago and video revenues falling 10% to $1.06 billion.

Likewise, for all of fiscal 2014, Cisco reported a 15% decline in service provider video revenue. Although video software revenues rose for the year, video infrastructure revenue plummeted, pulling down the entire segment.

Cisco's slumping service provider results stand in stark contrast to the steady gains registered by Arris Group Inc. (Nasdaq: ARRS), its biggest rival in that segment. In its latest earnings report two weeks ago, Arris posted strong revenue and income increases, thanks at least partly to higher shipments of cable and IPTV set-tops, home video gateways and other video-related equipment. (See Arris Rides Capex Wave Again.)

Cisco senior executives blamed the latest service provider business declines on the pending mergers of such major cable customers as Comcast Corp. (Nasdaq: CMCSA, CMCSK) and Time Warner Cable Inc. (NYSE: TWC). Cisco Chairman and CEO John Chambers stressed that the service provider sector has seen about as much consolidation activity in the past 12 months as in the preceding four years combined.

Chambers also noted that service providers are struggling with their business models right now as they make the transition to a new competitive landscape. As a result, he said, they are putting "the squeeze on vendors."


For more of Light Reading's coverage of cable and video capital spending trends, visit our video hardware content channel.


With the Comcast/Time Warner Cable and AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T)/DirecTV Group Inc. (NYSE: DTV) deals not expected to close until at least the end of the year, Cisco executives expect continued softness for at least another six months. Talking about the "temporary slowing effects" on capital spending that such mergers can have, Chambers said he doesn't expect to see a pickup in service provider revenues for at least two more fiscal quarters. "It's probably going to be tough for a little while," he said.

Arris Chairman and CEO Bob Stanzione sounded a similar theme on his company's earnings call with analysts two weeks ago. Stanzione said the pending mergers could create "disturbances in the business" this fall and winter.

Like Stanzione, Chambers predicted that service provider capex levels will rise again once the deals have been consummated. In the long run, he said, service provider consolidation should create new opportunities for Cisco.

Even in the short term, though, Cisco officials are clearly not satisfied with the service provider video segment's performance. In his opening remarks, Chambers said that the company has already made "top leadership changes" in the area. While he didn't go into detail, Cisco recently wooed veteran cable executive Yvette Kanouff from Cablevision Systems Corp. (NYSE: CVC) to head up its service provider video software and solutions group.

"I think we need to do better" with service providers, Chambers said. But, he noted, "that's a couple-of-quarters phenomenon."

Longer term, Cisco is seeking to move its service provider business from its traditional reliance on routers and boxes to a focus on end-to-end architectures and software solutions, just as it has been doing in the enterprise space. "The service provider customers love the approach," Chambers said, noting that the only complaint he's heard is why Cisco didn't take that step sooner. "We'll make a pretty good transition in the next one to two years."

— Alan Breznick, Cable/Video Practice Leader, Light Reading

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DHagar
DHagar
8/18/2014 | 12:54:44 PM
Re: Go Whole Hog
@kq4ym, exactly - they seem to be following the trends, not setting them.  Maybe they should go back to their core functions and find the best fit for today's market, instead of chasing the latest trend.  They seem to play other people's games, where they don't have the greatest strength.
danielcawrey
danielcawrey
8/18/2014 | 12:32:41 PM
Re: Go Whole Hog
With the consolidation happening, one has to wonder if the revenue levels for video in the service provider business will instantly go back to normal.

If companies combine forces, that means they can spend less on certain resources than they would have individually. I hope Cisco recognizes that. 
kq4ym
kq4ym
8/18/2014 | 8:30:51 AM
Re: Go Whole Hog
It does seem Cisco has be scrambling for years trying to find just the right business model. Things change, but Cisco seems to always be a bit behind the competition, or finds some niche that really doesn't pan out profitably. But they can't be blamed for being unable to predict the future, since no one else can reliably do that either.
DHagar
DHagar
8/15/2014 | 6:03:19 PM
Re: Go Whole Hog
@jabailo, I like your strategy as a viable solution for them.  They need to play on their strengths and put together the right packages, instead of trying to copy others - where I think they are less competitive (i.e., Arris).

? - Any predictions on what Cisco's main lines of business will be in 2020?

 
Atlantis-dude
Atlantis-dude
8/14/2014 | 6:15:11 PM
Re: Go Whole Hog
Wasn't that intercloud?
jabailo
jabailo
8/14/2014 | 3:31:21 PM
Go Whole Hog
If I were Cisco I'd see my opportunities as a provider to other companies as limited and eventually a dead end.

However, given their cash, their position and their technology savvy, I would instead try to catch up and transform myself by going after the whole enchilada.  That is..become (yet another) cloud, selling direct to consumers and small business, and hope to out run their rivals.

 
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