Samsung should reconsider a tri-fold phone – analystSamsung should reconsider a tri-fold phone – analyst

While Huawei launched its tri-fold phone in September of this year, a tri-fold phone by Samsung might not materialize until 2026. But, a tri-fold phone launch may not be the best market move for Samsung, an analyst with Canalys told Light Reading.

In a discussion on X (Twitter) about the potential release date for Samsung's tri-fold phone, one analyst speculated it might not arrive until after 2025. "More like early 2026," wrote Ross Young, CEO of Display Supply Chain Consultants (DSCC), a Counterpoint Research company.

Samsung's competitor Huawei released its MateXT tri-fold phone this fall in China after months of speculation. The phone has a starting price of 19,999 yuan (US$2,800) for the 256GB version. The smartphone includes an AI assistant, 5,600mAh battery and three cameras on the back of the phone. It features a 0.2 inch screen, is 3.6mm wide and compresses down to 6.4 inches when fully folded.

While a tri-fold phone is certainly attention-grabbing, launching one might not be the best strategic move for Samsung to differentiate itself from the competition, according to Runar Bjørhovde, analyst with Canalys, a sister company to Light Reading. The foldable segments share of the total smartphone market is still only 1.5%, which makes it "highly niche," he wrote on LinkedIn. "Plus, the last years' growth has largely come from new vendors entering the segment."

Related:AI permeates Samsung's smartphone and wearables launch at Unpacked

(Source: Canalys)

"There is definitely a need of showing innovation," Bjørhovde said in a note to Light Reading. "Perhaps a cutting-edge concept device [by Samsung] would have a stronger effect than a tri-fold phone that they want to sell worldwide – particularly given that Huawei already has demonstrated that it can be done."

Stagnating growth

An even bigger question is whether a tri-fold phone could improve Samsung's lackluster foldable shipments for its last two series (5th and 6th generation), said Bjørhovde.

"Samsung continues to be world's largest foldable vendor, but growth has stagnated with its 5th and 6th generations of Galaxy Fold/Flip," said Bjørhovde in his LinkedIn post. "In many cases, it often has to default to promotions and discounts in order to help drive volumes. But – Samsung still holds a dominant share of the foldable installed base, making 2025 extra important for Samsung."

Samsung has also resorted to discounts and promotions to compete with Chinese smartphone vendors, both from a technological and price standpoint, Bjørhovde said.

In July, Samsung launched two new foldables smartphones: the Galaxy Z Fold6 and Z Flip6. "The Galaxy Z Fold6 is our slimmest and lightest fold yet," said Annika Bizon, marketing and omnichannel director at Samsung Electronics UK, during the Samsung Galaxy Unpacked launch event. The smartphones are also 5G-capable and include AI features such as a translator and suggested reply capability.

Foldables represent a small portion of the smartphone market, but 2025 will be an important growth year as the first wave of foldable buyers from 2021-2022 will be looking to upgrade, Bjørhovde wrote on LinkedIn. To drive up sales, vendors will need to address customers' concerns about the format of foldables (for example, the hinge being annoying or poor durability), and focus on development of hardware and software, plus gaming and entertainment features, that will lure in consumers, he added.

While the foldables market is challenging to navigate, Samsung is leading the overall global smartphone market with 18% share, reported Canalys this summer. Global smartphone shipments hit 288 million units, an increase of 12%, in Q2 of this year.