Timing matters. A year ago, Huawei leaked news of its surprise chip breakthrough just as Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo ended an official visit to China. This week the US waited for National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to finish his Beijing trip before disclosing new export sanctions.

Now it's Huawei's turn again for a little more serendipitous trolling, announcing a plan to crash Apple's much-anticipated iPhone 16 party next week. A few hours after Apple unveils the first Apple Intelligence-powered phones on September 9, Huawei will take the wraps off the world's first tri-fold device, the Mate XT.

We don't know if consumers are really demanding a double-hinged smartphone that opens up into a 10-inch screen, but it is sure to fly off the shelves in China.

The XT launch is intended to stoke the patriotic resentment the Chinese consumers feel over US attempts to sideline the company and that has helped goose Huawei’s sales. Its huge fanbase will be thrilled to see their national champion sucking up some of Apple's oxygen.

Not that this matters much to Apple. Thanks to the asymmetric competition between the two, Apple isn't even going to notice it.

Ceded market share

Huawei has no presence in the US, so while the two companies have a growing rivalry worldwide, they just won't be going head-to-head on Apple's turf. More's the pity. The tech world could do with a lively nationalistic rivalry that can generate headlines and juice sales.

But Apple has bigger problems in China. It has ceded handset market share since Huawei has re-entered the fray, dropping out of China's top five rankings for the first time. Its China revenue shrank 10% and operating income fell 14% over the first nine months of the year.

While analysts mostly think the company's global outlook is strong thanks to the iPhone 16 and the rebound in handset markets, Apple will likely struggle to regain lost ground in China.

Consumers might well be more attracted to the iPhone's AI features than Huawei's tri-folds, but that isn't going to help much. Apple Intelligence is not approved as an AI model in China and Apple has not yet outlined how exactly it will offer AI services in the country.  

All of which means Huawei looks set to continue its relentless march toward the top of China's handset charts.