Trump is expected to free lower 3GHz for 5G

According to a variety of political observers, there is a pretty good chance that incoming President Donald Trump will wrest control of a portion of the lower 3GHz band away from the US military and allocate it to the 5G industry for commercial use.

If that happens, it would represent a major boost to companies like AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile, as well as their equipment suppliers like Ericsson and Nokia. It could also spell trouble for cable companies like Comcast and Charter Communications, which are continuing to struggle against 5G-powered fixed wireless access (FWA) services. After all, putting more 3GHz spectrum into FWA operations could significantly expand the overall fixed wireless market.

Still, some Washington insiders remain skeptical of Trump's ability to enforce major spectrum changes on massive federal agencies like the US Department of Defense (DoD). Many Pentagon officials have made it clear they're not willing to simply give up their use of the lower 3GHz band without some kind of spectrum sharing scenario. Moreover, it's unclear whether 5G will receive the same amount of attention in the second Trump administration as it did in the first.

"It's Trump," one political insider told Light Reading recently, on the condition of anonymity. "On January  21, he could be completely distracted by something and never deal with it."

Regardless, there are widespread indications that the 5G industry may be in line to receive more exclusive spectrum resources – a key objective of wireless providers and vendors. But whether that spectrum sits in the 600MHz band, the C-band, the 7GHz band or the lower 3GHz band – or some combination thereof – remains to be seen.

150MHz from the lower 3GHz band

Political operatives in the 5G industry believe Trump officials could slice off a 150MHz chunk of spectrum from the lower 3GHz band and allocate it to the US wireless industry in an auction.

They believe that revenues from an auction of those spectrum licenses would help grease the political wheels. Indeed, revenues from the C-band auction in 2021 funneled more than $80 billion into the US Treasury. And companies like T-Mobile and AT&T have recently begun setting aside billions of dollars for future spectrum acquisitions.

But an auction of lower 3GHz spectrum probably won't happen anytime soon, according to people familiar with the situation. It could take two to four years for a lower 3GHz spectrum auction to play out.

It's worth noting that some players in Washington aren't convinced the DoD will ever relinquish spectrum in the lower 3GHz band. They point out that the Pentagon has said it could cost more than $100 billion to move military radar systems out of the band – more than any auction could raise.

Still, some big 5G players are increasingly optimistic about Trump's business-friendly stance.

For example, AT&T CEO John Stankey said earlier this month that Trump's pick to lead the FCC, Republican Commissioner Brendan Carr, is "much more market oriented" than officials in the Biden administration. He also said Carr is capable of making "deliberate decisions" on things like "how to make sure that there's more spectrum in place."

Just after Trump won re-election in November, Stankey wrote in a Forbes column that "the Pentagon and its allies in Congress have been loath to share" spectrum. But he argued that "it is in the Pentagon's interest to make an earnest effort to balance the legitimate needs of the military with those of American consumers and businesses to have access to world-class mobile infrastructure."

From Cruz to Thune to Carr

Sen. Ted Cruz is expected to chair the Senate Commerce Committee when Trump takes office, while Sen. John Thune is expected to be the Senate majority leader. The two helped author the Spectrum Pipeline Act of 2024, which calls for the federal government to release more spectrum for commercial licensed use. However, the legislation doesn't specify exactly which spectrum bands should be released.

That decision likely will fall to the head of the FCC. And Carr has made clear his interest in the lower 3GHz band.

"We are well positioned to ... move forward with an auction of lower 3 GHz spectrum after 2022," Carr said in 2021.

More recently, Carr obliquely referenced the topic in his Project 2025 essay for the Heritage Foundation, which some view as a blueprint for the second Trump administration.

"Over the past two years, the FCC has failed to move spectrum into the commercial marketplace at the same pace and cadence that it did in the recent past," Carr wrote. "Creating better mechanisms to improve communication and cooperation between different federal agencies could enable a more effective and coordinated US government telecommunications strategy."

According to the financial analysts at Evercore, there is only one senator – Mike Rounds from South Dakota – who believes the DoD should keep the lower 3GHz band. The analysts based their conclusions on conversations with Andrew Lipman, a partner at international law firm Morgan Lewis.

And a group of lawyers from Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP – an international law firm that's based in Washington, DC – wrote that the Trump administration could rescind the Biden administration's National Spectrum Strategy. That strategy calls for years of studies on the lower 3GHz band. Instead, the lawyers said they expect Trump officials to "fast-track the identification and reallocation of spectrum for commercial use."

Other bands

Of course, the lower 3GHz is one of many spectrum bands under review by federal regulators. But it's the band that has generated the most interest among 5G players due to its proximity to other bands already used for 5G, including the 3.45GHz band, the CBRS band and the C-band.

Regardless, there's a good chance Carr might get moving on other bands before tackling the tricky lower 3GHz band.

For example, Carr said earlier this year that "it is important to start to have a conversation" on holding another incentive auction for 600MHz TV broadcast spectrum. At a television conference in Washington this summer, Carr suggested that after local stations shut down ATSC 1.0 digital broadcasts in favor of ATSC 3.0 (aka NextGen TV), they might be open to releasing some of their unused spectrum to wireless network operators.

Separately, SES and Intelsat have suggested they could free up additional midband C-band spectrum for 5G as part of their proposed merger.

And Carr, along with other regulators, has eyed the 7GHz band for possible 5G operations. Indeed, many expect the band to play an outsized role in the development of 6G technologies.