Wheeler: FCC Will Protect Competition in All-IP Era
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Your scenario makes at least 1 assumption that is not true today but could be true tomorrow. AT&T in your case is the Carrier of Last Resort (COLR). They must provide a phone line to every home in their territory. At least today, Wireless is NOT considered an equivalent.
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Example: a rural user in an area that has both AT&T DSL and Comcast cable suddenly sees an "IP transition," which in rural areas means AT&T pulls the copper plant entirely, and pushes those users on to LTE. That means a consumer that previously had the choice of two fixed-line options suddenly only has the choice of one.
Said user can either go to Comcast cable, who now faced with less fixed-line competition than ever before will raise rates and provide even worse customer service, or they can transition to AT&T LTE services (if they can get it) and face low caps and high overages that make Netflix streaming financially unreasonable.
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So, basically, if the incumbents get it their way, a switch to all-IP would mean they get to control and own their own networks completely without having to share any of it... which would effectively reduce competition because not many other companies are going have or start building out new IP networks of their own.
The only way to put bandwidth on copper is shortening loops and putting in more fiber. This drives up the cost of the copper dramatically because the size of DSLAMs has to shrink.
There is an optimal size of an apartment building of under 20 units that can work. Otherwise you end up having to have more than 1 DSLAM/building to shorten loops. Having been through that with VDSL & VDSL2 it ends up being not very useful. Verizon eventually just ran fiber to every apartment as it was easier and cheaper.
In single family home construction, FTTC has been an overwhelming failure as a deployment method. The reasons all have to do with power. The Reltec/Marconi team that did Vegas and BellSouth powered the FTTC ONU from an upstream cabinet. NLC used to do local poewring and it had few deployments. In Phoenix, the US West guy in charge of that NLC deployment said he needed to get 1,400 permits and AC drops. Imagine the battery maintenance for that.
So, there is this small niche where new Copper tech can work. Other than that, Copper is dead.
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