Poll Identifies Big Traffic Drivers

Home workers will generate the biggest growth of traffic on the Internet next year, according to Light Reading's December Research Poll.

The poll, which still can be taken by clicking here, aims to pin down what will drive Internet traffic growth next year - in terms of who will be using what applications and what access technology. Here's a snapshot of the results so far:

  • Residential users will generate the biggest Internet traffic growth in 2003, according to the biggest percentage of poll respondents - 33 percent.

  • However, it looks as though a lot of residential users will be working from home, judging by responses to a question on which applications will drive the greatest traffic growth. Thirty percent say business applications, compared to 18 percent for games and 13 percent for video on demand.

  • This conclusion jibes with another survey finding, regarding which telecom services will experience the biggest traffic growth. IP VPNs have so far captured 55 percent of the vote.

  • In terms of which access technologies will carry the biggest growth in traffic, DSL and 802.11 wireless LANs are currently tied for first place, with 28 percent of the votes apiece. Cable follows close behind, with 25 percent, while fiber manages a mere 10 percent.

  • The biggest brake on Internet traffic growth will come from telecom operators not making broadband access available (30 percent) and not investing in their networks (25 percent).

    These results are likely to change as more people take the poll, so take it yourself by clicking here and get the latest status quo.

    — Peter Heywood, Founding Editor, Light Reading
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    litemyfiber 12/4/2012 | 9:06:43 PM
    re: Poll Identifies Big Traffic Drivers RJ;

    The "bosses" who manage by objective wouldn't care where (or when) somebody did their job, unless of course, the job responsibilities required us to collocate with fellow assets. (Or required us to climb some utility poles in order to string the fiber.)

    In my opinion, bosses that distrust employees are not worthy of us giving them their power (nor honoring their titles). And I suspect that it's more of a personal ego thing, than it is distrust of employees, that causes too many managers to believe in those mundane, 8'x5', industrial, cubicles. (The irony of that game is that the cattle then fights for an 8'x 8' "office" with a window while the rancher owners roam free on the entire range.)

    Your post is typical of your idealism but does the rest of us who work for such "bosses" no good. They make the rules, end of story. It may be backward and ultimately self defeating for the organization, but the bottom line is such people are protecting their own turf, a big part of which is controlling resources and delegating responsibilities. "Knowledge workers" can certainly do without the daily visit to the office, but the office has a place as well. I get less done there, but I spend a lot more time sharing the kind information with my peers that cannot readily be put in an email.
    I think the most undersold part of giving all of ones users the ability to telecommute is for disaster recovery purposes. This would also include personal disasters, sick leave, sick kids, elder care, etc...
    No company/management in their right minds should doubt the value of disaster recovery after 9-11-2001.
    After all anything can happen anytime, right?
    Sofa-kingdom 12/4/2012 | 9:06:33 PM
    re: Poll Identifies Big Traffic Drivers litemyfiber: "I get less done [at work], but I spend a lot more time sharing the kind information with my peers that cannot readily be put in an email."
    Depends on your job, and even the stage of a particular project, but even if daily touchy-feely interaction is necessary, half a day working from home and the other half in at work can be infinitely more productive. It also forces you to plan better. What works for me is to take that half day in the middle of the day (when to/from traffic is much lighter). That cuts about 40 minutes off drive time.

    VK 12/4/2012 | 9:06:29 PM
    re: Poll Identifies Big Traffic Drivers Couldn't agree more with Douggreen.

    To add to the discussion from technology perspective, out of the applications voice, data, video, audio etc..., excepting for the pure data applications, the rest of them need end-to-end guaranteed bandwidth for quality of experience. Doesn't that sound like the quality of good old telephone networks but at orders of magnitude higher bandwidth. This end-to-end guaranteed BW may be offered by either real or virtual circuits is dependant on which side of the fence you are on.

    Given that there is plenty of availabile BW, the issue becomes much cheaper "right-sized" switching than what is offered today.

    The content irrespective of the application, may be travelling in packet form but end-to-end guaranteed BW (in the form of right-sized circuits) is the key for both end user experience and carrier revenues. Of course, this should happen at much lower cost.

    I dare say those days are not far away!
    Packet Man 12/4/2012 | 9:06:23 PM
    re: Poll Identifies Big Traffic Drivers While none of the list below are new applications, many are still strangers today when it comes to the Internet. Some have taken root already and are closer to critical mass than others. None, as an individual app, will be consider the "killer app" but all together will drive substantial traffic at all layers of the Internet (A, D, & C)

    My 'new apps' list:
    Building security systems
    View on demand Movies
    Internet Radio and audio entertainments
    Public Hotspots
    Corporate video
    Distributed computing systems
    IP Telephony, including wireless IP
    Too many to count Peer-to-Peer applications
    Automation Systems
    Medical monitoring system
    Automobile remote diagnostics systems
    Modern highway monitoring systems.
    Modern digital libaries replacing book libaries
    etc, just use your imagine.

    In another ten years or so, our children who have never known life without the Internet, will become the next generation of worker and consumer. You will then see a significant 'bump' on the traffic growth charts. There are also numerous countries that still have little Internet access. As these countries come on-line this will add another 'bump' on the traffic charts.

    Here's a long shot.....GPS gets perfect and miniaturized. A GPS in implanted into every human, automobile, plane, train, etc etc etc, and with the aid of wireless and Mobile IP good ole 'Big Brother' can monitor everything. :o)

    But of course by then we will have OC-49152 and we are right back where we are today....not enough traffic and too much competition to make a 'healthy' profit.

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