Optical components

More Oclaro Numbers

5:45 PM -- Maybe I'm trying too hard to convince myself, but I'm thinking Oclaro Inc. (Nasdaq: OCLR) has forecast probable growth in its fourth quarter, which ends in June.

Bookham and Avanex, the companies glommed together to form Oclaro, probably made a combined $74 million or $75 million in revenues during the March quarter. (It sounds almost like playground rules, but because Avanex got acquired prior to the due date for its quarterly earnings, Oclaro never has to report those earnings.) (See Bookham, Avanex Form Oclaro and Oclaro's Numbers.)

Oclaro is predicting fourth-quarter revenues of $67 million to $75 million -- but that includes only two months' worth of Avanex. Now, I admit the following math is oversimplified and dumb, but:

  • Avanex's probable Q3 revenues: $27 million
  • Divide by 3 to get probable monthly sales: $9 million
  • $67 million (the lowball estimate) + $9 million (the missing month) = $76 million.

So, is Oclaro trying to tell us it's going to be an "up" quarter, as many predicted? (See Coming Soon: An Optical Uptick?)

— Craig Matsumoto, West Coast Editor, Light Reading

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