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Optical components

Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

Enablence Technologies Inc. (Toronto: ENA) shares have climbed 65 percent in two days, but some investors might be overestimating the Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC) win that apparently spurred this outburst.

Enablence reported on Wednesday that its photodiodes have been chosen for use in Intel's Light Peak modules -- the 10-Gbit/s optical interconnect for PCs. Light Peak is intended to be a universal replacement for USB, Firewire, and other interconnects.

Here's the interesting part. Analyst Daniel Kim of Paradigm Capital Inc. , one of the firms that underwrote Enablence's IPO, wrote in a report issued today that Enablence's "contribution to Light Peak will amount to approximately $10-12 per PC."

Enablence's shares had already risen about 26 percent the day after the Intel announcement. But today, possibly on the strength of Kim's report, Enablence climbed another 18 cents (55 percent) to 51 cents per share. That's a 96 percent gain in two days.

But is $10 to $12 per PC realistic? Light Reading ran that figure past some experts and got the phone equivalent of a funny look.

"I don't know about anything double digits" inside a Light Peak module, says Richard Doherty, an analyst with The Envisioneering Group and a longtime follower of Intel. "These speeds don't require one-photon sensitivity photodiodes, or the kind of x-ray photodiodes NASA uses."

One source familiar with optical components pricing puts photodetectors, even 10-Gbit/s ones, at between 50 cents and $1. "And if you're going to see volume, the price is going to come down."

Neither source thinks Intel needs a high-end photodetector for Light Peak. Moreover, if it's a commodity photodetector that Enablence is providing, then the company is likely to face long-term competition from bigger, higher-volume competitors.

Intel wouldn't comment when asked about the likely price of a Light Peak module, but given that it's meant for PCs, it can't be very high. Or, to put it another way: If Enablence's piece alone is going to cost Intel $10, that bodes ill for the total cost of Light Peak.

"I think their goal was to be in the low tens of dollars and to have that drop over time. USB 1.0 started in the low tens of dollars," Doherty says.

Even 50 cents per PC could be a good haul for Enablence. Kim estimates 112 million desktop PCs will get sold in 2010 -- based on the 337 million total PCs that Gartner expects will ship. But not every PC is built with Intel inside (blasphemy, we know) and it's probable that not every PC will have Light Peak. Moreover, Light Peak, which hasn't begun shipping, won't reach real volumes until 2011.

Given all the question marks, Kim's report doesn't give a specific estimate for how much the Intel deal is worth to Enablence. He didn't change his forecast, which calls for Enablence to see revenues of $45.2 million this year, $64.9 million in 2010, and $104 million in 2011.

Enablence officials and Kim couldn't immediately be reached for comment.

— Craig Matsumoto, West Coast Editor, Light Reading

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danp5648 12/5/2012 | 3:50:32 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

September 23 Intel Demo'ed Enablence's Technology to the world and the stock continued to fall all the way to down .22 cents a share.  On November 25th a new document was included on to Enablence's website called the PDCS60T-USB  10 Gb/s InGaAs Photodiode.


September 23 Intel Demo Enablence Technology to the world
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izNoF1SWtSg&NR=1



A back-to-back comparison, it also shows two not just one but two PDCS60T-USB working side by side.


http://www.investingnideas.com...


The next day Enablence announced product and relationship details with Intel and the stock continued to trade at a all time low of .22 cents, it was until the following day December 3 2009 did volume and price begin to change.

<h1>During the recent Intel Developer Forum, Intel unveiled Light Peak, a 10-Gbps optical interconnect for PCs that will use photodiodes, including Enablence's large-area, dual-wavelength 10-Gbps photodiodes, for its build.
</h1>
<h1>Jason Ziller, director, Optical I/O Program Office, Intel Corp., said that the company is pleased to be working with Enablence to make LightPeak optical components ready to ship in 2010</h1>

If you study other Light Peak press releases from Avago, IPtronics and Oclaro


No where does Jason make a direct comment about a company or a product until now. Also note the Apple OS at Demo #2.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khPx1dEIPnA


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deauxfaux 12/5/2012 | 3:50:59 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

Tomato. This was the funniest series of posts that I've seen out of you yet. Obviously you are either a company shill or another grey-shoed-Members-Only-jacketed boiler room broker sitting in a folding chair somewhere in Brooklyn.


Polder's comments on who's left from W7 are dead-on. The ringmasters have left, the clowns are asleep and the animals are now in charge of the circus.


Lever up, write a BIG check&nbsp;and help Arvind's band of "technologists"&nbsp;rid the world of those Tomato Onion cans once and for all. Intel is bound to pay $100 for the privilege of buying one of Arvind's photodiodes! The stock is going to soar! Everyone will think you are a genius!


....or Lightreading will use your face as the image of the mascot....if PETA will let them


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Tesla_x 12/5/2012 | 3:51:02 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

" Calix, Occam, and Adtran are dominating the tier two, tier three FTTH market in the US. ENA continues to do well internationally, and that is due to the staff they have handling that market."


Given the size of the Canadian Stim relative to the US Stim, and the now larger Obama attention on rolling out broadband, it will be VERY INTERESTING to see how these companies do in terms of Canadian Stim, and more so, US Stim share.



OCNW, it seems, has been gaining quite the following in ENA territory up north...and has recently put more sales focus abroad in EMEA.&nbsp; All this in a cash rich, no debt, cash flow neutral, healthy margin position with a squeaky clean balance sheet (finally).


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By comparison, as best I can tell, Calix (as of the recent S-1 revelations), ENA and to a lesser extend Zhne are all in some way or another BLEEDING CASH and are burdened with not insignificant DEBT of one kind or another.


Not a good way to start a growth intensive race for stim share, since a strong balance sheet, lack of share dilution and the ability to get more working capital may be KEY to absorbing more business and boosting EPS.


Suffice to say, the next 2-3 years will be very interesting, entertaining and probably profitable for those who have chosen the best positioned, conditioned and rested 'horse' for the race to come.


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Interesting thread too, the patience and cool-headedness of some long-timers here is amazing.&nbsp; Makes me wonder why the LR board dosen't have an IGNORE button for posters that insist on using personal insults as a primary mode of communication...


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Polder 12/5/2012 | 3:51:06 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence Wow, that extra two cents must warrant a special Christmas. Please illuminate me where I am wrong in any of the comments in the previous post. I would be interested hear what you can refute. In addition, I joined the board on 7/24/2007 as Polder and have maintained that name (and no others) since that date.

Enablence Technologies Inc. (ENA:CA) -¬ quotemedia.com

Last Price 0.55
Change 0.02
Day High 0.57
Bid 0.54
Ask 0.55
Dividend 0.00
Last Trade 11:48
% Change 3.77%
Day Low 0.54
Bid Size 19000
AskSize 500
Ex-Div Date N/A
Tick
Open 0.54
52 Wk Hi 0.71
EPS(TTM) -0.37
Shares 254,732,805
Yield 0.00
Volume 299.3 k
Prev Close 0.53
52 Wk Low 0.22
PE Ratio N/A
Market Cap close Exchange Information
Listed On
TSX Venture Exchange (CDX)140.1 m
Exchange CDX
Polder 12/5/2012 | 3:51:08 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence Danp, again you have missed my point. I was offering to buy you 10 shares of ENA if they showed a profit by April. Your stock acumen is as adept as your choice of an alias on this site. I got curious about you as you continue to resort to name calling when someone disagrees with you. I am neither a "moron" or a "bitch". I was surprised to read you graduated from college in 1996, I had you pegged as being MUCH younger. As for ENA, I suggest you exercise some more diligence. Tom Tighe, who founded W7 with six others and was the CEO, has left ENA. Four of the other founders have either left or retired. Tom Tighe has been replaced by Michael Skubisz who was Pannaways Chief Technologist and who is now running the access side of ENA. You could confirm this by a quick check of their website. Mark Carpenter, VP of Sales at Pannaway, well, last time I checked, he was running the domestic sales team for ENA. Only one of the ex-W7 sales guys remains on the domestic ENA sales staff. The remaining sales staff worked for Pannaway. The recent layoff's/reorganizations have impacted the Alpharetta office of W7 much more than the Pannaway staff. Pannaways engineering and marketing team are more or less intact. Most of the W7 staff has departed. From where I sit, it gives every appearance that the Pannaway staff is in charge of the remains of W7. As I don't have a dog in this fight, I dont much care one way or the other except that it is sad to see the promising future that W7 had fade away. Calix, Occam, and Adtran are dominating the tier two, tier three FTTH market in the US. ENA continues to do well internationally, and that is due to the staff they have handling that market. International is the one hole in Calix's account portfolio. From what I can see via trade shows, it appears that ENA has focused on selling the MAGN product line domestically and the Trident7 product internationally. I imagine this is a decision based on embedded customer bases. It will be interesting to see how it plays out but again, look at their balance sheet and draw you own conclusions. It is better to be thought a fool than open ones mouth and remove all doubt. I may well be wrong but I suspect the future will validate my opinion. Opinion, my opinion alone, is based on my interpetation of the facts as I view them. No more, no less. If that makes me a moron, than that it my own issue.
Larry, Monkey 12/5/2012 | 3:51:08 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

Mind your manners, danp, or you'll have to go away.


Thanks.

danp5648 12/5/2012 | 3:51:08 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

I am not missing your point by re-explaining to you the points that you are not understanding. Also the concept of SHORT and LONG is missing in your portfolio. The domestic sales team for ENA is a nightmare, I agree. I would not use those words except "moron" only because it fits you so well considering the logical conundrum I am facing (re-read the above statements) . btw, your medication seems to working, but slowly you begin to loose it. Case in point, you are beginning to make things up in order to change reality to fit your own needs to make negitive judgements about others. Then, like before, you start "researching" your target which begins a uncontrollable loop which branches out in all directions until a professional dials you back in. You keep changing your alias because of your lack of control in keeping a sound mind. Soon you will be another alias, but the patterns will remain, which is your prison.&nbsp; Respect thine enemy will prove fruitful.

danp5648 12/5/2012 | 3:51:09 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

No I said buy 10 shares SHORT not 10 shares LONG you moron. The difference is shares SHORT turns into a financial blackhole if shares go up and limited gain if the shares go down. And NO Pannawayis not running the access side, the TUTOR wins where based on the TRIDENT7 Universal Access Platform, Optical Line Terminals, Optical Networking Terminals and the Element Management Suite (well maybe inside the US) The "Verizon sales" stuff was only an FYI not meant to be anything else, If anyone has details let me know. "E" was up 30.86% today anyone do any better? Yet me know!&nbsp;


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Polder 12/5/2012 | 3:51:09 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence You have a deal, in April I will forego a McDonalds Happy Meal and get you ten shares if they are profitable. I woul dnot suggest holding your breath in the meantime. While Arvind may have 6.7M shares in stock, I doubt he is paying for many, if any, of them. Also, I have not been yelling about this, I have just been pointing out the facts. I wish them the best but the financials predict a grim future. It is not a question of whether their performance is up to my standards, it is a question of how the market evaluates their performance. When it comes to money, the market can be a cruel mistress. The Pannaway mafia is now running the access side at ENA and that does not bode will for future performance.
danp5648 12/5/2012 | 3:51:10 PM
re: Light Peak Puffs Up Enablence

OK then short some shares then. How about 10 shares? April is the next time they report (after December 16)&nbsp; so given the time lag til then I am sure he already knows the results. Oppenheimer is in for&nbsp; 17,000,000 shares as of 2009-10-28 and the CEO is in for 6.7 million shares as of 2009. I call that pretty good buying activity. Well lets hope for the best. ENA is up 20.99% today. On December 16th we will see. Can you hold off any replies until then? Why don't you call them on 17th at 1-800-396-7098 starting at 14:00. You can yell at them all you want if the results are not up your standards. Works for me.


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