100G Action Spurs Optical Optimism
Investment analysts have reacted accordingly. This week, Needham & Co. analyst Alex Henderson endorsed Ciena's cheery outlook with a "buy" rating and a bump in his target price for Ciena's stock from $22 to $28 -- it currently commands $22.35.
At the same time, he also reiterated "buy" ratings on both Infinera and NeoPhotonics.
Henderson said he's basing his price target bump in large part on discussions with components suppliers, who say Ciena has been accelerating orders for coherent processing components of late. That could indicate that carriers are increasing demand for 100G coherent systems for long-haul and other deployments.
But Henderson cautioned against believing a sector-wide boom is in the offing.
"Some people will look at this and say that the rising tide will raise all ships," he told Light Reading. "That's not what this is. It really depends on the business mix of the individual companies. You have to look at the companies in this sector as individual names, and see how much of their business is in 100G coherent and how much in legacy products."
Ciena and Infinera both appear to be benefiting from an increase in 100G deployment deals in China and Europe in particular, Henderson noted. "Only now are we seeing 100G become cheaper than deploying 10x10Gbit/s, so we may finally be at the beginning of this next upgrade cycle," Henderson added. (See GTS selects Ciena.)
Ciena last month saw its stock price jump following a fiscal second quarter sales boost from its 100G portfolio. (See Ciena soars on 100G.)
Meanwhile, Infinera is expecting the current reporting period to be its first profitable quarter since 2010. (See Infinera Predicts a Profitable Q3 .)
Henderson also recently singled out NeoPhotonics because of the component supplier's strong position on coherent technology and its position as a major supplier to Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd., which is playing a major role in the China Mobile Ltd.'s 100G coherent optical deployment.
-- Dan O'Shea, Managing Editor, Light Reading