At MWC23, operators maintained that open RAN is a long-term, strategic play.

Gabriel Brown, Principal Analyst, Heavy Reading

March 10, 2023

3 Min Read
Operators hold the course with open RAN

I went to the MWC 2023 trade show in Barcelona alert for signs that operators might be scaling down their plans for open RAN or quietly backing away from the technology. The hype, after all, has been excessive. Perhaps after some reflection, operators might be ready to rein in expectations?

What I found is an operator community that is still committed to open RAN and is generally sticking to its timelines, albeit with some uncertainty about when exactly the technology will scale. Operators were clear that open RAN is a long-term endeavor and were careful not to overinflate near-term deployment expectations, but they also emphasized that it is a strategic play that they think will ultimately deliver better RAN systems.

At a pre-MWC briefing for media and analysts in London, I asked Vodafone Group CTO Scott Petty about the company's commitment to, and ongoing enthusiasm for, open RAN. His answer was clear: "If we want open networks, we need to play a role; we can't just sit and wait for vendors. We want the industry as a whole to move away from proprietary radios to open.

"We're really committed to open RAN. We'd like the industry to move faster, but we're really committed to this."

As a reminder, Vodafone has a target of 30% of its European cell site footprint to be running some form of open RAN by 2030. Working back from there, we can figure out an industry timeline.

At an analyst briefing in Barcelona, Orange CTO Michaël Trabbia confirmed that the operator's ambition to deploy only open RAN-compliant equipment in Europe from 2025 onwards is on track. Said Trabbia: "We strongly believe open RAN is the way to go … I believe open RAN maturity is growing in line with what we expected – we weren't the most ambitious but are still pretty aggressive.

"In two years, we believe we will come to a maturity level that will make it possible to extend [open RAN] to a massive level with the same features and performance as integrated.

"On open RAN, we are cautious not to over-promise, but 2025 is on track."

Deutsche Telekom announced two new multivendor open RAN deployments in Europe this year. Speaking at a press and analyst conference, Claudia Nemat, Deutsche Telekom Board Member for Technology & Innovation, did not spend much time on it, but she put it succinctly: "I want to confirm we continue to believe in O-RAN and we want to work with our partners to make it as performant as we need it in our networks."

A chat with company insiders on the sidelines confirmed the operator is sticking with its plan to help develop multivendor open RAN to be competitive in the major outdoor macro scenarios, including high-capacity 5G sites with massive MIMO. And it is worth noting that Deutsche Telekom, as usual, hosted the O-RAN Alliance media briefing at its booth.

Overall, the operator message from MWC23 is that the intent to deploy open RAN remains. Yes, the technology ecosystem needs a lot of work and investment. Yes, operators and vendors are also, rightly, cautious. Yes, what we think of as open RAN today may evolve significantly by the time it is ready for mass deployment. And yes, every participant reserves the right to change their mind. But in broad terms, in spring 2023, it is clear mobile network operators expect to stay the course.

Putting a timeline on an emerging network technology market is always tricky. If we take the view that competitive solutions will be broadly available from 2025 onwards, then there is an opportunity for open RAN to become widely deployed in networks in line with RAN refresh cycles. Let's say from 2027 onwards, it will really start to scale. Sure, it would be nice to move faster – and some operators will – but just about every vendor, deep into the silicon ecosystem, is planning for this sort of timeline.

— Gabriel Brown, Senior Principal Analyst – Mobile Networks & 5G, Heavy Reading

About the Author(s)

Gabriel Brown

Principal Analyst, Heavy Reading

Gabriel leads mobile network research for Heavy Reading. His coverage includes system architecture, RAN, core, and service-layer platforms. Key research topics include 5G, open RAN, mobile core, and the application of cloud technologies to wireless networking.

Gabriel has more than 20 years’ experience as a mobile network analyst. Prior to joining Heavy Reading, he was chief analyst for Light Reading’s Insider research service; before that, he was editor of IP Wireline and Wireless Week at London's Euromoney Institutional Investor.

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