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Ohh Nooo!!!

3:30 PM -- Yesterday morning, the President of the United States went on national teevee and said: "I don't think anyone could have anticipated the breach of the levees."

Red Panda's immigration status is somewhat uncertain, so he doesn't want to say this was exactly a "lie." Nor that the remark reveals Mr. Bush, for the umpteenth time, as "dumber than dirt." So let's just comment: "Close, but no stogie."

The fact is, absolutely no one anticipated this tragedy, except of course the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the New Orleans Times-Picayune, the Mayor of New Orleans, and many, many, many, climate scientists, but who listens to what they say? They believe in that "global warming" stuff. 'Nuff said.

But more shocking than the warnings from all those usual suspects is that fact that even Mr. Bill, the animated clay figurine from Saturday Night Live, is smarter than Mr. Bush, the animatronic president-simulacrum.

In a disturbingly prescient ad that CNN aired on May 27, 2004, Mr. Bill shows he has a much better understanding of New Orleans' levee system than Mr. Bush. Then he is eaten by an alligator. Oh nooo!!!

— Red Panda, Picayune Pundit, Light Reading

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dljvjbsl 12/5/2012 | 3:46:48 AM
re: Ohh Nooo!!!
a good statistician can make any argument he or she is predisposed to and often that is the case.

I would rather rely on DATA and real mathematical analysis instead of statistical interpretation.


Actually the US National Academy of Science and a distinguished panel of statisticians analyzed the statistical technqiues that went into the creation of the famous hockey stick curve. Both found them wanting.

The statisicians were particuallry concerned that no one with specialist statistical skills was part of te team analyzing the hockey stick data. They noted that the participation of statisticians is routine for large health studies. A specialiststatistician participatuing in the study would have avoided the many errors that made the hockey stick curve sueless.

Of particilar note, a critic of the hockey stick methodology tested it by artificially increasing the tree ring growth measurements in the data set for the 15th century. This would be be indicative of increasing temperature at that time. Applying the hockey stick mehtodolgy to this test data set created a model in which the temperatuire in teh 15th century fell markedly instead of rising in contrast to the measurements recorded in teh data set. This happenned becasue the hockey stick methodology did not use standard statistical technqiues. Indeed critics point out that it works in suh a way that it will find and exagerrate any possible hockey stick curve including those that are tehre by chance. The 15th century test was done to illustrate how this works.
paolo.franzoi 12/5/2012 | 3:46:47 AM
re: Ohh Nooo!!!
dlj,

Some forms of pollution may be falling in the US. However, pollution is clearly increasing in China and India.

This is clearly Haliburton's fault.

seven
Michael Harris 12/5/2012 | 3:46:46 AM
re: Ohh Nooo!!! It's great to see folks in this industry interested and passionate about broader issues, like global warming, and to take the time to discuss them here. When rigorous debate and dialogue disappear what remains is demagoguery. We shout louder and more often instead of listening, processing and integrating. Could it be that those on the "other side" of any issue just might have something constructive to say? And even (gasp) shed light on something we ourselves may have not considered, thus deepening our own understanding?

On a related note, it seems this whole discussion is related to the reductionist versus complexity sciences issue. In other words, the challenge of trying to measure and predict complex systems in motion by measuring the details of its individual parts. By dissecting DSL modem silicon can I understand a broadband network's traffic patterns?

Also, Raynovich is right to remind us about the role of common sense with his shopping mall example. For example, in Phoenix where I live, daytime high temperatures have not increased much over the last 30 years, but overnight highs have climbed by like 10 degrees. Why? Because the sea of asphalt retains the day's heat. What effect is this having?

The data seems to indicate global warming is occurring and the consequences are likely to be severe. Let's hope the causes and remedies can be pinpointed quickly.
desiEngineer 12/5/2012 | 3:46:45 AM
re: Ohh Nooo!!! All I can say is, if you just believe what the scientists tell you, you are going to be way off. And statistics is a valid field that requires interpretation just as much as scientific observation does. Statistics is what keeps empirical science on an even keel.

There's just too much "post hoc, ergo propter hoc" right now.

E.g., did the lack of automobiles cause the Ice Ages of the past, and the use of fire for cooking bring about the end of the dinosaurs?

dlj's question in bold has a key word in it: "believe"?

I believe in science because, down at some fundamental level, it is a faith. But I only have so much faith in it. Its high priests, after all, are just human.

-desi
^Eagle^ 12/5/2012 | 3:46:44 AM
re: Ohh Nooo!!! dj,

Cancer rates are falling? Pollution is less? hmmm... let me see... looking out over silicon valley right now from the top of this little hill I live on.. I must simply have dirty windows as I am sure you are correct and all is well, and the skys are clear and clearing as far as the eye can see.

hmm.. and my old neighbors down wind from a texas power plant want to know if you are in the market for a nice surburban Mcmansion?

ohh, and my pals in china tell me to forward our thanks for informing them their water is now safer to drink than it was last year.

I appreciate you clearing up our confusion regards cancer, pollution, and global warming.

hahahaha, statisticians arguing about which interpretation of definition of how to apply statistical rules... which are mostly based on simple mathematics based on adding subtracting and multiplying... and which definitions for how to do are are applied mostly by business shools.

I am sure their point of view regards if there were enough statisticians involved in a SINGLE study clearly means that the science was flawed, the study invalid and that all other studies and science research in this area is also flawed and thankfully, I can now go buy that new hummer and drive to the top of the uncompagre plateau in Colorado and have the veiws from 1920 restored!

Wow.. it is so great to see so clearly again. Think I should probably start going to a statistician to get my eyeglasses perscription updated. My optometrist clearly had me wearing foggy glasses.

sailboat.
dljvjbsl 12/5/2012 | 3:46:43 AM
re: Ohh Nooo!!! Cancer rates are falling? Pollution is less? hmmm... let me see... looking out over silicon valley right now from the top of this little hill I live on.. I must simply have dirty windows as I am sure you are correct and all is well, and the skys are clear and clearing as far as the eye can see

Cancer rates are falling as well as pollution. These are facts in the developed world. This should be cause for celebration.

Wow.. it is so great to see so clearly again. Think I should probably start going to a statistician to get my eyeglasses perscription updated. My optometrist clearly had me wearing foggy glasses.

The appropriate mathematis to apply to paleoclimatology is statistics. The issue is that the statistical analysis was done by people with insufficient mathematical skill. The hockey stick curve that they derived came not from the underlying climate data but from their improper application of statistical techniques. The current recommendation is that future studies of this sort contain a professional mathemetician who will be capable of applyoing suitable techniques properly.

Did you know that in the hockey stcik model, the technqiue selected by the authors based their estimatioon of 15th century climate on a single tree?

Do you believe in global warming?
dljvjbsl 12/5/2012 | 3:46:43 AM
re: Ohh Nooo!!!
dlj,

Can you post links for your claims?

seven


Air pollution levels falling signficantly. The first URL explains the political reasons for this occurence while the second contains more scientific detail.



http://article.nationalreview....

http://www.pacificresearch.org...

Do you believe in global warming?
dljvjbsl 12/5/2012 | 3:46:43 AM
re: Ohh Nooo!!! dlj,

Can you post links for your claims?

seven


Good news -- article from teh Americna Cancer Society -- Cancer rates and death rates from cancer are both falling. This is an older story. Newer stories that I ahve read confirm this reand


http://www.cancer.org/docroot/...


Do you believe in global warming?
paolo.franzoi 12/5/2012 | 3:46:43 AM
re: Ohh Nooo!!! dlj,

Can you post links for your claims?

seven
dljvjbsl 12/5/2012 | 3:46:42 AM
re: Ohh Nooo!!! dlj,

Can you post links for your claims?

seven



http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07...

Good News. This URL from the New York Times describes the incease in longevity over teh last 100 years. Not only are people living longer, tehy are living longer with much better health.

Do you believe in global warming?
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