x
DWDM

Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long?

For the second time in two weeks, Nortel Networks Corp. (NYSE/Toronto: NT) has issued a press release claiming the leading market position in sales of "optical Internet" gear.

But scratching the surface of both announcements reveals that Nortel's boasts, while valid, gloss over its continuing small share of the high-channel-count DWDM market. Further, analysts say Nortel must act vigorously to keep its overall place.

Let's take it from the top: In last week's announcement, dated February 19, Nortel says market research firm Ryan Hankin Kent Inc. (RHK) reported Nortel to have a 61.4 percent share of the North American long-haul DWDM market -- double the share that RHK gave it one year ago.

The overall North American market for DWDM in 2000 was $7.7 billion, according to RHK. The firm divides up the DWDM market into two segments, however, and Nortel doesn't dominate them both.

The first segment in RHK's taxonomy for 2000 devotes $6.1 billion of the overall DWDM market to systems with channel counts lower than 40 -- a segment that Nortel led with a 72 percent market share, according to RHK's research.

Low Channel Count DWDM Systems RHK's second segment includes so-called high-channel-count systems, with more than 40 channels -- a market RHK sizes to have been $1.6 billion in 2000. Nortel has just 10 percent of this chunk, which is led by Ciena Corp. (Nasdaq: CIEN) and NEC Corp. (Nasdaq: NIPNY).

High Channel Count DWDM Systems Nortel's lack of presence in this division could be cause for concern, since that area is slated to be among the fastest growing in optical networking. For example, in publicity for a separate report on optical components, RHK cites "performance improvements -- such as higher channel counts" -- as drivers for triple-digit growth in DWDM systems over the next three years.

It's also worth noting that Nortel's share of the high-channel-count DWDM market didn't increase from 1999 to 2000 (see Nortel Spins Past Ciena).

The conclusion? Nortel must hustle if it means to keep its top spot in DWDM. It could lose out to other players quickly if high-channel-count systems start to predominate.

This analysis is borne out by research touted in this week's market share announcement from Nortel. On Tuesday, the company announced that research from The Dell'Oro Group shows Nortel to be top dog all 'round.

DWDM Long Haul Market DWDM Metro Market Sonet/SDH Market But report author Shin Umeda issues some caveats.

First, Dell'Oro does not use the same type of breakdown in its figures that RHK does. Instead, the firm sticks to sales counts it gets directly from the vendors in making its tallies. In the case of Nortel's long-haul DWDM figures, the vendor gloms together sales of its S/DMS Transport Node, an older product that works only with Nortel's Sonet add/drop multiplexers, and its newer Optera LH 1600, which isn't dependent on those ADMs.

It's an important distinction, some say. Nortel's products based on legacy Sonet and SDH (which Umeda estimates account for over half of all Nortel's optical revenues) are predicted to start phasing out as carriers demand next-generation gear with multivendor compatibility and higher channel counts.

Umeda says Nortel refuses to divulge which percentage of its long-haul DWDM revenues come from which products. Nortel confirms this. But a Nortel spokesperson says, "Optera LH definitely makes up the majority of our revenues in this space, and even without [the older products being included] we'd still have the number one spot."

For the record, Umeda says Dell'Oro has included only revenue from equipment in its reporting; no service and support is included. Also, he asserts that he's not double-counting DWDM equipment; what's counted in long haul does not appear in metro.

Other analysts confirm that Nortel needs to avoid complacency about its market position, in light of the changing nature of the DWDM market. "Nortel has a lot of old equipment that's intimately linked to its old-style ADMs," says Mark Storm, optical networking program leader at research firm Frost and Sullivan. "The [S/DMS] is where the bulk of the revenue is, and they're challenged to make the transition [to next-generation gear]."

He also says market researchers themselves need to revamp their taxonomies. "There's a key transition going on from Sonet/SDH to next-generation gear. It takes a while to slice and dice it all." He says researchers must avoid inflating the numbers by counting too much, while making sure not to miss the key trends by forcing new gear into old categories.

-- Mary Jander, senior editor, Light Reading http://www.lightreading.com

alloptical2000 12/4/2012 | 8:49:17 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? Hi,
I am not really sure if that is the case.
Following is the link to the telllabs 6500.

http://www.tellabs.com/referen...

it does list all the calpabilities of CoreDirector. especially the STS-1 based grooming and switching.

y2k 12/4/2012 | 8:49:27 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? "2. Tellabs's 6500/6700 (tellabs has been working on this for while now.)"

I understand that Tellabs' 6000 series can have up to 3,000 ports of OC-48 and the granularity is at OC-48, similar to Cisco/Monterey and Tellium.

Tellabs is late but not to be ignored. They have a great installed base with RBOC's and they know how to sell to them. In any case, they do not compete directly with CoreDirector nor DX/HDX except when these products are used strictly for mesh restoration and protection.


--y2k--
jppr17 12/4/2012 | 8:49:30 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? I believe segmenting the DWDM market only in terms of number of wavelengths is not precise.

The important value is the combination of both total transport capacity (per channel TDM x # channels in terabits per second) and distance reach (without EO regenneration) that a product can deliver.
alloptical2000 12/4/2012 | 8:49:31 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long?
Hi,
Most of the facts are well covered about tha capabilities of the DX.

and also, as you said, DX competes head-to-head with CoreDirector CI, is perfectly inline. as far as i know CoreDirector CI is a scaled down version of the Coredirector with half as much(approx 320Gbps) capacity for switching.

According to Nortel's website DX can do 320 Gbps of switching. The port count should be up-to 128 X 128 (max) at OC-48 level.

DX has functionality of cross-connection and grooming at STS-1 level and also traditional transport of SONET in the long-haul networks.
But i am not sure if CoreDirector CI has transport soultion. It is a pure cross-connect. correct me if i am wrong.They do compete only when configured as a cross-connect.

One of the reasons why DX might have not fared well in the competiton was probably due to a smaller switching capability of 160G at that time.

It is only recently that they have proposed the soultion of 320Gbps of switching. They might have compromised on the tranport piece of the functionality to achieve the density and the switchining capabilities at 128 X 128 OC-48.
I am not even sure if 320Gbps soulution is available yet. the 160G soulution is available for sure.

and the HDX would be Nortel's best bet aganist CoreDirector. But, it is going to be a while before we see that.

I see the following two being launched and competing head-to-head with CoreDirector towards the middle and end of the year:
1. Nortels' HDX
2. Tellabs's 6500/6700 (tellabs has been working on this for while now.)
3. Sycamore's 16000

any comments and feedback welcome
prefer_to_lurk 12/4/2012 | 8:49:32 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? wdog:

It's actually not my area of expertise. However, to your question, the DX doesn't (and isn't intended to) compete with the CoreDirector -- so that's why you haven't heard about such comparisons.

The Connect HDX (coming out later this year) will compete head-to-head with Ciena, and we'll just have to wait and see how often it comes out on top.

ptl
prefer_to_lurk 12/4/2012 | 8:49:33 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? "The DX does groom to STS-1, but is more like a traditional 3/1 cross-connect and only supports a very limited number of OC-48 ports per bay, and I don't believe it supports OC-192. I have never heard of it making the cut in any competitive situation against the CoreDirector"

The Connect DX is totally designed to support OC-192, and has been deployed in large quantities in numerous long haul networks. I don't where your 3/1 cross-connnect misconception comes from.

Is 72 OC-48 ports per bay a very limited number ?

http://www.nortelnetworks.com/...

It will compete with the CoreDirector CI on a head-to-head basis, with the Connect HDX matching up very favorably against the CoreDirector.

prefer_to_lurk

wdog 12/4/2012 | 8:49:33 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? Sorry if my information was incorrect. It sounds like you know quite a bit about the DX and HDX. Do you know of any situation where the DX competed against the CoreDirector and won? I hear about CoreDirector competing against the Sycamore SN 16000 in many situations, but I've never heard of a single situation where the DX was even considered.
lightreading 12/4/2012 | 8:49:35 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? JonT:

This is AWESOME. There is absolutely nothing wrong with some simple scientific analysis. It will be very interesting to see if and how these things correlate. For all you people who think this is useless, don't worry - if it is it will show up in the data. If not, then you will be glad to know. You can't argue with numbers; they are not biased and have no preferences. That's the beauty of it.

Keep up the good work and critical thought JonT. Since Light Reading reporters and editros love to hide behind this mantra, I would think they should have absolutely no problem in providing you with all the data you need. Not hard dollars, but certainly giving you relative advertising revenue percentages by company should be totally accpetable. If it is not, then there is something else going on and something to hide.

Seek the truth.

wdog 12/4/2012 | 8:49:37 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? ased on the specific comments made by Don Smith, I believe the Nortel web site is wrong regarding the ability of the HDX to groom to STS-1. I have always heard it refered to as the bandwidth manager for their OC-768 family. The DX does groom to STS-1, but is more like a traditional 3/1 cross-connect and only supports a very limited number of OC-48 ports per bay, and I don't believe it supports OC-192. I have never heard of it making the cut in any competitive situation against the CoreDirector
Cerent Rules 12/4/2012 | 8:49:38 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? JohnT:
We would definitely like to see your results.
Unlike what the Lightreading discussion board writers have to say, your work is not worthless.
What school are you at by the way?
Paddycakes22 12/4/2012 | 8:49:39 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? Not just yet. They should rethink the current IP Svcs leadership team. No comparison to the Shasta founders AA & AL. Too much, too little, too late.
optinuts 12/4/2012 | 8:49:39 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? is lr going to cover 360 networks impact on sycamore, based on the announcements today. this would be a litmus test of their impartiality (of which i too am increasingly sceptical).
biatcher 12/4/2012 | 8:49:40 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? Problem is...this site claims to be something more than it is and there are a number of people out there who do believe that what they read or what the writers say to be the truth. And, with the amount of money out there to be made and lost, it would be to everyone's benefit to have a sense of the slant....if for nothing else to cut down on the falsehoods and hype that has been put forth.
rafaelg 12/4/2012 | 8:49:40 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? Or a moron...

To use a single source for information as a decision making or fact. People will look for a scapegoat to justify their misery or bad decisions. I use this place as a way of relaxing and weeding out the real vs the opinion or heresay. If one is astute, the facts are between the lines. If in doubt, check out the websites.
STOP WHINNING!!!GROW UP CHILDREN!!!!
If there's anything that should stop is the idiotic, inmature personal Posts.
LIGHTREADING, don't change anything and keep the news/opinions going!!!
Thanks!!!
y2k 12/4/2012 | 8:49:41 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? I second the post from "reality_sucks." Everything that we read or hear is biased. You are supposed to read from as many sources as possible and draw your own conclusion. If you think that there is a conspiriacy here, stop coming to the site. The rest of us comes because we believe Lightreading serves an important function. If it does not, the natural force of free market will take care of them. I will never ask Peter Heywood and his gang to design the next generation of optical components, but I don't mind reading their articles to get some insights on an area that is outside of my immediate area of expertise. If you don't like what you read, stop coming and stop this non-sense about advertising and bias. The rest of us are silent but it doesn't mean that you are not the minority. Please get off the site and stop this garbage.


--y2k--
reality_sucks 12/4/2012 | 8:49:42 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? There is a correlation between sponsors and favorable coverage in all media. I realize alot of people have big IPO money on the line with thier optical companies but can we please stop this stupid thread.
Phil D. 12/4/2012 | 8:49:43 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? John Boy,

You are astute. Here is the web site of the company that funds LightReading. Check them out for some more background. You should contact them and ask them how their optical clients are doing and why they backed LightReading in the first place.

A high-tech scam if you ask my partners and me.

WE BELIEVE ALL COMPANIES IN THIS SPACE DESERVE A CHANCE TO PROSPER UNDER THE VERY SAME MARKET CONDISTIONS.

LIGHTREADING IS TRYING TO CHANGE THE RULES OF THE GAME FOR SOME.

My thoughts for what it is worth. Can't wait to read your final report John.



they are inversting in LightReading.
JonT 12/4/2012 | 8:49:43 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? Hello everybody:

Thank you for all of the responses and suggestions.

I plan to do more analysis on the correlation between advertising and Lightreading reviews (example: focus just on the advertisers - and determine whether length of advertising period impacts Lightreading's reviews, etc; do a detailed profile of each advertiser - look
at their profitability, other factors.)

Many people have suggested that I do a detailed study on the quality of LR coverage on the venture companies of several venture capital investment companies, starting with Lightspeed, and then compare them to a couple others.

Can someone provide introductions for me to some of the investors at Lightspeed? That would help out a lot. I looked at Lightspeed's venture companies, and all of them have received really favorable coverage, so I think there is benefit in investing in Lightreading if you are a venture capital company.

My professor said I could share my findings with
people once I am done with my report. If you want a copy, please e-mail me at [email protected] I hope to have it
finished by late March.

I will try to post new findings as I finish them. Hope to have the venture capital correlation study ready by next week.

Thanks!

John
Phil D. 12/4/2012 | 8:49:43 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? Ooops. Here it is:

http://www.lightspeedvp.com

y2k 12/4/2012 | 8:49:46 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? Cool...thanks.

Their website for the HDX product mentions potentially they can switch 7.68 THz in one bay which would be 3,072 channels of OC-48 (2.5 Ghz) or 768 channels of OC-192 (10 Ghz). Comparing this to CoreDirector which is 256 channels of OC-48 in one bay. Their website also talks about OC-748 (40 GHz).

http://www.nortelnetworks.com/...

Is this correct, alloptical2000?

This all sounds good on paper. But is it too late? Ciena is now shipping revenue boxes. My guess is that Ciena has a migration path as well and there is no way that they will fall behind. These products have OEO switch fabrics so the limitation is just Moore's Law.

Anybody knows anything about the PX (aka Xros) product?

--y2k--
alloptical2000 12/4/2012 | 8:49:46 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long?
Hi,
My understanding of the Optera Connect portfolio is as follows:
1. DX competes with CoreDirector CI, in switching densities and applications. The market segment this fits in is High Density ADM.

2. HDX competes with Core director. But is is much more denser and it supporst alomst all the applications Core Director does. It can get to 1024 ports and upgreadable to much bigger densities, but at the cost of lots space. HDX can do STS-1 grooming.

DX can go upto a max of 250G(??) of switching capacity, whereas CoreDirector can go upto 640G.
Initial releases of HDX are supposed to do STS-1 based switching and grooming upto an aggregate capacity of 2.5 Tbps in two bays(????? not sure about this). It's going to be a while before this thing comes out into the market.

So a HDX is a better comparison to the CoreDirector, when we look at the their market segment they are targetting.

wdog 12/4/2012 | 8:49:47 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? Don Smith from Nortel spoke at the Lazrd Freres & Co conference today and talked about the HDX, Nortel's future big cross-connect. He said that the HDX doesn't support STS-1 grooming and relies on front-ending the HDX with multiple DXs to groom to STS-1. The Ciena CoreDirector supports STS-1 grooming. The HDX isn't competitive. I'm sure Don's presentation is available somewhere on the web if people want to check it out.
y2k 12/4/2012 | 8:49:47 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? According to Nortel's website:

"The OPTera Connect family includes: the OPTera Connect DX fits into high density long haul and regional applications that require SONET/SDH STS-1 grooming with support for high capacity interfaces up to 10Gb/sec; the OPTera Connect PX that provides pure-photonic switching for wavelength management; and OPTera Connect HDX provides multi-terabit switching for ultra high-density core networks."

This sounds like the DX is competitive to Ciena's CoreDirector switching at STS-1 granuarity up to 10 GHz. The PX is their Xros product. And the HDX is souped-up version of their DX machine.

So may be the DX machine is a better comparison with the CoreDirector. Any comments, Wdog? Thanks.

--y2k--
fernphoton 12/4/2012 | 8:49:48 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? You brought up some good points. What do you think of Sorrento Networks? Their products etc., for the metro market?

Thanks
fernphoton 12/4/2012 | 8:49:48 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? You brought up some good points. What do you think of Sorrento Networks? Their products etc., for the metro market?

Thanks
davey59 12/4/2012 | 8:49:48 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? OK, Nortel may have announced the 160 channel DWDM system, but can they deliver given that some vendors probably cannot keep up with delivery promises?
photonic314 12/4/2012 | 8:49:50 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? ...I may be all wet but those of you who decide to bank on higher bit rates per channel technology as a sound investment...40G...80G...320G...are probably the same ones who claimed back 10 years and change ago that the then new dispersion shifted fiber will solve the dispersion issue...and then out of no where non linearities such as 4wm like magic appeared!

I believe we have reached the break even point at 10g per channel relative to cost per bit...
lightreader 12/4/2012 | 8:49:51 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? definitely NOT 40G......
biatcher 12/4/2012 | 8:49:52 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? RHK? Do you really think that those people are going to say anything bad about their big cash cow customer? These people are some of the biggest offenders when it comes to fluffing the market and setting unrealistic expectations. (Wonder if they are still sticking to their story about the DWDM components markets being worth $24 Billion in a few years...and not that their clients would not be the beneficiary of such hype)

The problem with these analyst firms is that they are collecting fat consulting fees or even taking equity positions in return for putting these things out. Wall St, loves RHK because the research people could point to the RHK numbers as the reason that we should expect huge growth. They endorse companies and their products and are good at playing favorites with companies who buy their services. It is widely rumored that the PR firms and Venture Capitalists tell their clients to use them because of their willingness to say nice things.

I know people who work in the VC, Analyst and PR aspects of the market and it seems that the rule is, "Say nice things about us and we will buy your services" or PR agencies will imply "We will tell our client that they should work with you based on what you say about them".

Say anything critical and you can kiss the relationship goodbye.

Maybe people should start asking these cheerleaders what their financial interest in these firms are? How much money is Nortel paying RHK every year? Think the fees that they are getting might have something to do with the results?

And for the PR and Analyst Relations Managers who are virtually bribing those companies or at the very least shelling out tens of thousands of dollars to have them kiss your ass and endorse your products...you will get what you deserve when you wind up out on the street because you would not pay for the truth. (See Lucent for a good case in point)

And, yes, I am a disgruntled investor.......
watan 12/4/2012 | 8:49:52 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long?
The article talks about count but it does not talk about capacity...If theses channels are 2.5G
or 10G or maybe 40G
Petabit 12/4/2012 | 8:49:52 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? Since the market share report has been dug up again, I'll repeat what I said about it the first time (over on Raging Bull):

http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mb...

"You can spin market share any way that you want. By dividing the categories, you can be the number one vendor in something. You can get an understanding of this from comparing the product families:

Nortel's primary product (MOR) was launched in 1997 and carries 2.5G and 10G traffic over 32 wavelengths. This is what is generating most of the revenue. They introduced the new platform (OPTera LH 1600) in mid 2000, which can carry 40 channels of 10G today (scaling to 160 in 2001).

So I'm very intrigued how NT could get 4% market share of 40 channel systems in 1999, since they didn't have a product then. The number will be very different for 2000.

My point is, if you set the 'high-channel count' breakpoint to 40, Ciena will have enormous market share. Set it to 32 and Nortel will win.

Nortel will ship a 160 channel in 2001, Fujitsu have promised a 196 channel system. So I guess Fujitsu will have 100% market share in the above 180 channel systems! "


Which all goes to show that using the number of channels is really pointless. How about we choose a breakpoint of 500 Gbit/s for a single fibre - half a terabit. Oh look! Nortel has 100% market share since it is the only company to have a customer using that much capacity.

I know, an even better way - let's compare the number of LEDs on the front panels - or the combined weight of the equipment...

Channels don't matter. Bits matter. Customers pay for bits.

P.

twistedcopper 12/4/2012 | 8:49:54 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? mary-
one thing you failed to mention is that RHK recently sent out an addendum to their 2001 low channel count DWDM systems. they lowered the total by 5-10%, or about $900 million. this is in large part to 40-50% price erosion that they learned about through large carrier interviews, which they claim is only affecting the low channel count systems and no other market segment. this means that nortel, owning the bulk of this market, will be hit the hardest by price erosion. it seems that this would be an interesting addition to the story. did you contact anyone at rhk for comment?
-twisted
y2k 12/4/2012 | 8:49:55 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? Opstar:

You're right. I over exaggerated. I think we are in agreement that this is an exciting market even with the current downturn, and there should be more than a handful of winners.

It's a target rich environment and as long as the company executives focus on their job, there is no reason to fail. Lucent is a great company with great people and great technology, they deserve better. A CEO sleeping on the job doing nothing but depreciating shareholder value is a crime.

Ciena has a great "meat before sizzle" CEO and Cisco has a great "meat and sizzle" CEO. In the long run, they should all do well.

On the Photonic X-connect front, the rumer is that Nortel is partnering with Corning which has put lots of resources behind MEMS (Intellisense etc.). If that were true, I would agree with your "long term" success assessment.


--y2k--
opstar 12/4/2012 | 8:49:55 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? y2k,

Good insight! But it's too early to say, Ciena is going to be the king of the hill.

In short term, NT is having its HDX coming on the way, which has better attributes against CoreDirector, from its PR.

In long term, NT will have its Photonic X-connect (PX). From your reasoning, that's the key to everything in the next generation network. By the way, NT is putting big bucks in 40/80G. You'd believe that helps in LH.

I agree it's going to be interesting to watch out the game for the year. But it is hard to say who lunchs anybody else's share at this time.

Thanks!
///opstar
y2k 12/4/2012 | 8:49:56 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? Peter:

Great story, very timely. This data has been out there for a while, that Nortel has been very clever in using the market data and it is catching up to them.

Both Ciena and Nortel ships OC-192 (10 GHz) products but Ciena has much higher channel counts even though overall Ciena has a smaller total market share in terms of dollar value.

This is obviously significant because it takes a lot of technology to ship products with more than 40 channels. Ciena and NEC dominate that market because they have a monopoly over the FBG (fiber bragg grating) technology.

FBG is the only game in town. AWG (Array Wave Guides) doesn't cut it. Why do you think the Japanese sold PIRI to SDL? When was the last time that Japanese got out of the component business, especially something as important as optics, unless it is a real dog.

In any case, the DWDM landscape should change soon as the industry adjusting to a new paradigm. SONET will be around a little while more yet but it will become purely an interface and a service aggregation tool.

Most of the functionalities (add-drop and cross-connect) will be taken up by optical switches. Whoever controls optical switch will control the deployment of DWDM. For that matter, whoever controls optical switch will control the deployment of IP routers.

Pay attention to where Juniper is putting their money and you will see the future. Take a look at Calient's Board, not only do you find CEO of Juniper, you also find former executives of Lightera who invented the entire product catagory of optical switch.

These guys are real visionary. They are now talking about "photonic" switch and not just optical-layer switching. Grooming is an important transitional feature but at the end of road, SONET will completely disappear and we will arrive at "IP-over-Photons."

Anyway, back to Nortel, they don't have a next-generation SONET box to compete with Cisco/Cerent and they don't have a product to compete with Ciena/Lightera's CoreDirector. They are definitely in a bind, things are not looking good for them.

Nortel is also not executing on their Xros acquisition and even if they did, their Xros box does not compete directly since it is not a grooming switch and it switches at the Lambda level. Xros is a 2002 product, not 2001.

It will be an interesting year to watch. My guess is that CIEN will do to NT in 2001 what NT did to LU in 2000. Ciena will be the king of the hill for a while until John Chamber figures out what to do.

Anyway, great article. Thanks.


--y2k--
Rex M 12/4/2012 | 8:49:57 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? Over 60% market share and that is bad news? Must not have paid their bills to LR this month

Rex
optinuts 12/4/2012 | 8:49:57 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? peter, you've got a blind spot where lucent and alcatel are concerned. the tellabs crossconnect that sells is a ds1 system, a wideband x-conn. marconi has a wideband sdh system that is similar to lucents wideband sdh crossconnect. lucent's and alcatels broadband crossconnects sell more than ciena's core director, but they never get mention. why? you don't know, or don't bother?
given lucent still has a 25% market share of optical, they should deserve some mention on these pages, or are you doomed to follow the startups into non-existence?
hooflungpoo 12/4/2012 | 8:49:58 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? Considering what's been installed, its probably fair to say that a 40 channel Nortel DWDM system has similar capacity to a 160 channel Cienna DWDM system . I'd say the channel number metric is misleading. In fact from the point of view of system cost per bit-km it may even be fair to say that to be forced to use 160 channel rather than 40 for the same capacity is a weakness.
MW 12/4/2012 | 8:49:58 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long?
Peter,

Nortel resells Marconi's SDH cross-connect, that's right. Don't know how big the market share is....

MW
Peter Heywood 12/4/2012 | 8:50:01 PM
re: Nortel: Top Dog, but for How Long? How big is Nortel's share of Sonet/SDH cross connects?

I think I'm right in saying that it doesn't have a big Sonet cross-connect - Tellabs is the market leader - and resells Marconi's SDH cross-connect.

I guess this particular market is heading for some turmoil as optical switches replace traditional cross-connects, but there again, Nortel has yet to ship the product that will compete with Ciena's CoreDirector.

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