The FCC counts a total of around 10.6 million residential copper connections in the US. But a new agency action could pave the way for wireless technologies to replace many of those connections.
An AT&T effort to replace aging copper connections with wireless options is gaining regulatory steam, potentially paving the way for more operators to do the same.
That could have significant implications for the wireless network operators offering those alternatives. The FCC counted a total of 10.6 million residential copper connections at the end of 2023, the agency's most recent figures.
According to the FCC, around 61% of the 121 million fixed residential connections in the US were cable in 2023, and roughly 23% were fiber. Around 9% were based on the copper technologies that operators like AT&T are working to retire. The remainder of all US fixed residential connections were terrestrial fixed wireless (6%) and satellite (2%), according to the FCC.
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Connections | 111.621 | 115.792 | 118.536 | 120.860 |
Cable | 72.543 | 74.599 | 74.533 | 73.386 |
Copper | 16.983 | 15.269 | 13.101 | 10.636 |
FTTP | 18.384 | 21.531 | 24.456 | 28.000 |
Satellite | 1.752 | 1.692 | 1.949 | 2.037 |
Terrestrial Fixed Wireless | 1.959 | 2.701 | 4.498 | 6.800 |
AT&T plans to shut down copper-based services across the vast majority of its US territory by the end of 2029, timing that coincides with the company's plan to build fiber to 45 million locations within its legacy wireline footprint. The company has estimated it spends about $6 billion annually on keeping its copper network running for an increasingly small number of users. (It's also worth noting that recycling copper could generate up to $720 million globally this year, according to some estimates).
Federal regulators do allow copper network shutdowns as long as operators provide notice to other carriers and do not discontinue regulated services. But the shutdown process has been fraught with uncertainty considering regulators have been concerned about specific geographic and demographic markets losing service, and what exact alternatives are available.
Gaining momentum
Most expect the copper-to-wireless transition to gain steam during President Trump's second term.
Incoming FCC Chairman Brendan Carr "will prioritize future network needs over protecting existing customers on legacy services," wrote Blair Levin, a policy adviser to New Street Research and a former high-level FCC official, in a recent note to investors. "We also think that he will be clearer in directing staff to approve decommissioning requests. Further, we think he will be an effective voice in urging states to be more accommodating to ILEC [incumbent local exchange carrier] requests to retire copper networks."
That's exactly the position AT&T CEO John Stankey espoused during his company's recent analyst day.
"I believe the administration change is going to help on this," he said of AT&T's copper network shutdown efforts. Stankey said he expects Carr to "lean in aggressively from a policy perspective to try to move this along faster than maybe the previous administration."
The latest
During the holidays, the FCC gave the green light to AT&T's request to replace old copper lines with a new wireless landline alternative in some locations in Oklahoma.
As Light Reading previously reported, AT&T told the FCC last year it hopes to shutter its legacy copper voice service in nine wire centers in Oklahoma because, according to AT&T, "there is virtually no demand for the service" in the area.
The company said it would instead offer some of those locations its new AT&T Phone-Advanced (AP-A). That product, which can run on AT&T's fiber or wireless networks, supports local and long-distance calling, call forwarding, caller ID, call waiting and E911 location detection. It also includes three-way calling, a 24-hour battery backup and anonymous call blocking. AP-A can also support other types of services that have historically relied on copper, including fax machines, alarm systems and medical monitoring devices.
"The FCC's approval of our application is a significant step forward in our path to modernize our network," Rhonda Johnson, a top AT&T regulatory official, said of the FCC's decision on the company's Oklahoma request.
In a statement, Johnson added that "this allows us to replace traditional landline service for a small number of our customers with AT&T Phone-Advanced (AP-A). No customers will be left without voice or 911 service."
The wireless solution
Although the FCC's new move only applies to AT&T's efforts in Oklahoma, some expect the agency to take a similar stance on related requests in other locations and by other operators.
"The precedent and blueprint established by an outgoing Democrat-chaired FCC sets the stage for acceleration of copper retirement, a benefit for both AT&T and Verizon's telco units," wrote Jim Patterson of Patterson Advisory Group in his weekly newsletter.
AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon all operate extensive wireless networks in urban and rural areas and could offer alternative wireless connections to the millions of residential copper users across the US.
"Between December 2022 and December 2023, residential connections to copper services fell from 13.1 million to 10.6 million, a reduction of almost 19%," the FCC wrote in its newest report on the US communications industry.
"Although widely available because it is built on the existing telephone network, this service is generally slower than other types of broadband services," according to the FCC, which calculated that copper customers generally receive around 30 Mbit/s speeds.
According to the FCC's latest figures, 65% of AT&T's footprint includes copper, 34% of Frontier Communications' footprint includes copper, and 93% of Lumen Technologies' footprint includes copper.
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