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Mike Dano
Mike Dano
9/6/2019 | 2:16:43 PM
Re: BayStreet Numbers/Table
Yup, the Q3 numbers are forecasts.
erik_spectra@icloud.com
[email protected]
9/6/2019 | 2:11:09 PM
BayStreet Numbers/Table
Hello Mike, an interesting article that helps illustrate the infancy of 5G in the U.S.  

One question or comment - Regarding the table for U.S. 5G Smartphone sales, it looks like 37,000 units were sold in Q3'2019 for all four carriers, with 29,000 being sold on Verizon's network. Combining the Q2 2019 (27,000 units) and the Q3 estimates, would put the U.S. 5G total around 64,000 units.

Either way, 5G is still very much in the early days, with Samsung just announcing 2 million 5G smartphones sold worldwide at IFA Berlin.
ajwdct
ajwdct
8/19/2019 | 7:27:36 PM
Limited mobility of 5G smartphones/devices; Sticker Shock Pricing!
It's extremely important to realize that a given 5G smartphone will only work on one carrier's network, e.g. an AT&T 5G phone won't work on Verizon's 5G network.  That's because each pre-standard 5G wireless carrier uses different RIT specs (most are based on 3GPP Rel 15 NR NSA for the data plane with LTE signaling for the control plane and EPC for the mobile packet core) and different frequencies.  So your so called 5G phone will fall back to 4G if you are not in range of your carrier's pre-standard 5G network.  That means limited mobility and certainly none when you travel to a city where your carrier doesn't have 5G coverage.

All these pre-standard 5G deployments will be trashed and ditched when the IMT 2020 standard is completed and implemented in new standard IMT 2020 phones and base stations/small cells.

..................................................................................................................

Meanwhile, IHS-Markit reports that the cost of the initial wave of 5G phones is dramatically exceeding expectations, with the price premium as much as 29 times higher than many consumers anticipate, according to a new IHS Markit survey examining consumer perceptions regarding the technology.

The actual pricing of the first wave of 5G phones is far higher than expected.  For example, Samsung's S10 5G phone is retail priced at $1,300, a 335 percent premium compared to the $388 average for the company's existing 4G smartphone models. In dollar terms, this would represent a $912 increase in price, an order of magnitude higher than consumers' expectations.

In another example, the Huawei Mate 20 X 5G smartphone carries a retail price of $1,200, a more than 400 percent premium compared to $295 for the company's 4G models.

This pricing discrepancy could instill sticker shock among many consumers. While such pricing premium is not likely to impact early adopters, it could slow sales of 5G devices to the wider, more mainstream consumer market.

 
Mike Dano
Mike Dano
8/19/2019 | 4:47:14 PM
Update
I just updated this article to note that BayStreet's forecasts of 5G phone sales in the coming quarters don't -- and can't -- include as-yet-unannounced devices. 


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