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lichin0607
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lichin0607,
User Rank: Light Beer
8/8/2019 | 4:41:11 AM
Unsure of your logic
Mr. Morris

Till now, there is still no evidence revealing that Huawei puts spyware in equipmet. Furthermore, China is a country with legal system, so it is illegal to force local branches of global firms to install spywares in their equipments. No evidence just staying oral is not convincing.

 
bosco_pcs
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bosco_pcs,
User Rank: Light Sabre
8/2/2019 | 7:26:47 AM
Re: Scratching my head
Thanks Iain! 
iainmorris
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iainmorris,
User Rank: Blogger
8/2/2019 | 4:18:54 AM
Re: Scratching my head
The parallel with oil, as described in the article, is that something of vital strategic and economic importance to a country is controlled and developed by a small and powerful club (a small number of oil-producing nations in the case of oil; a handful of vendors in the case of telecom networks). Energy security was all about diversification of supply so that countries weren't at the mercy of OPEC. Likewise, there is now a push for diversification (including the development of domestic suppliers) in the telecom industry to guarantee network security.

Obviously, yes, there are still major differences between oil and telecom. I wouldn't for an instant suggest the industries are exactly alike.
sergemelle
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sergemelle,
User Rank: Light Beer
8/1/2019 | 8:56:27 PM
Huawei is why we only have Nokia and Ericsson left
Its interesting you mention Nortel's bankruptcy as an example of the risk of having only Ericsson and Nokia left as Huawei alternatives for 5G (BTW you forgot Samsung).

While Nortel had many self-inflicted problems, the same way that someone who is always sick is less able to fight off a life-threatening condition, or like the diseased tree that can't weather the drought, Huawei acted as the sickness or disease that led Nortel to die.  

Huawei's arrival onto the mainstream telecom markets in the late-1990's/early-2000's was underscored by a relentless "sell 50% lower than any western vendor" strategy that crashed industry profits, shrank R&D budgets, and fundamentally weakened the ability of not only Nortel, but also Lucent and Alcatel, to survive.

It is sort of surprising that it took nearly two decades for a broader understanding to permeate that Huawei's rise to dominance was underpinned and enabled by a deliberate and unfair geo-political strategy of economic warfare guided by deliberate Chinese government policy. 

I am sure that a lot of industry insiders who were on the front lines of Huawei's aggressive pricining practices from the early-2000's would wonder why it took Western governements and institutions so long to recognize and categorize the threat for what it was, and still is.

So rather than question whether exclduing Huawei creates the risk of having only Ericsson and Huawei left to rely on, maybe the more realistic risk assessment is that unless more restrictions/conditions are placed on Huawei's Western 5G deployments, then do we create the conditions where eventually ONLY Huawei will be left to rely on?
bosco_pcs
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bosco_pcs,
User Rank: Light Sabre
8/1/2019 | 4:24:28 PM
Scratching my head
Not quite sure I understand the parallel between oil and 5G at all. But then I am no expert in either.

However, oil is a finite physical resources while 5G is really an intellectual properties protected only by international agreements.

Oil has always been at the mercy of OPEC until the advent of Russian oil and American technologies (fracking).

Before 5G, during the telecom bubble, optical was king and dominated by a duology, namely Nortel and Lucent, with Ciena being a niche specialist. Huawei's role in Nortel's demise is still subject to debate but the two giants are no more. 

The world is increasingly interconnected. Regionists want to put the globalization genie back into the bottle while standardization is a way to improve productivity. There are many forces at work here. Some complementary and some contradictiory. 

Like it or not, Huawei is state sponsored and able to undercut Ericsson and Nokia. However, since Nokia has been able to sell 5G gear in China, it demonstrates its pedrigree. However you see the jockeying of positions in 5G (infrastructure), I don't see the parallel between it and oil
James_B_Crawshaw
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James_B_Crawshaw,
User Rank: Blogger
7/31/2019 | 4:06:36 PM
Crisis? What crisis?
As an ex British prime minister actually said (unlike the Sun newspaper's mendacious headline) "I promise you that if you look at it from outside, and perhaps you're taking rather a parochial view at the moment, I don't think that other people in the world would share the view that there is mounting chaos."

Those network operating margins of Ericsson and Nokia look fairly healthy. Huawei just reported 1H revenue up 23% YoY (albeit driven by handsets). 5G is just taking off and should be a boon for all three. The insatiable demand for bandwidth remains ... insatiable. 

If anyone is facing a crisis it is the CSP purchasing departments. They have gone from a market with 10 credible mobile infrastructure suppliers to 4 or 5. Huawei has done them all a great service by driving down prices but there is only so far you can cut. And now they face the prospect of the market fragmenting with only Ericsson, Nokia and Samsung able to supply many countries outside China and only Huawei and ZTE able to supply in China. 

This drives the need for new entrants which have been lacking given the poor reputation that telecom technology has with the VC community. That will only change if some of the start-ups in mobile technology see bumper exits. 


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