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Glfrost
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Glfrost,
User Rank: Light Beer
7/10/2019 | 1:30:58 PM
Re: Stock surges, but questions remain
I agree with your concerns, but I would also add that Cable operators and vertically integrated like Comcast face even larger hurdles. The entire content model is failing dramatically and the CableOS approach is simply “lipstick on a sick pig” approach that does not address the failure of the current content model and very serious expense issues related to vast amounts of OTT content. They’re not sustainable on any level over the next 2-3 years at best. Network content value is dramatically decreasing and still is over valued for both streamers and cable channels. The threat & opportunity from ATSC 3 and 5G is ignored largely and chaotic irrational responses plague the industry.
Glfrost
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50%
Glfrost,
User Rank: Light Beer
7/10/2019 | 1:21:52 PM
Wrong Direction w/Harmonic and Comcast
Open Source or common platform direction is essential and the Harmonic development is not consistent with Truly Converged Architecture multi network compatibility. It is another example a failure to understand real business opportunities. It maintains a closed network model that is not future proof or positive towards future network developments. The model is more of a “circle the wagons” new old school approach that does spell good news for future revenue opportunity. I predict substantial cash will be expended and revenues will continue to massively decline because it is too little too late to save the long term growth future of Comcast and its legacy media assets which are seeing dramatic underlying weakness. A lack of truly strategic thinking based on dramatic evolution of content creation and interaction finds Cable operators, Streamers and production facilities clueless about the future indicators-the subscribers are not viewed real stakeholders, but chapel and churn cord cutting numbers. This approach lacks dynamic vision of human trends on a galactic scale that could collapse both companies.
Jeff Baumgartner
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Jeff Baumgartner,
User Rank: Light Sabre
7/10/2019 | 9:47:37 AM
Stock surges, but questions remain
As an update, Harmonic shares were up ~26% Wednesday morning.

Raymond James's Simon Leopold weighed in with a research report, noting that the new deal suggests that Harmonic has largely addressed some earlier hiccups with its CableOS trials and is showing that the product can scale up beyond tier 2/3s now that it appears Comcast is ready to start "material deployment" of a virtual CCAP this year.

He added that the license agreement with Comcast is "incremental" and leaves some questions unanswered, including how much of the $50M for 2019 to be paid will be recognized as revenue or included in deferred revenue on Harmonic's balance sheet; and what is the corresponding opportunity for Harmonic to sell Remote PHY Devices (RFDs) to Comcast?

Expect that some of those questions will be answered on Harmonic's Q2 call on July 26. JB 


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