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Gabriel Brown
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Gabriel Brown,
User Rank: Light Sabre
5/17/2019 | 4:54:54 AM
Re: Chief Paleontologist
I tend to agree with James that the headline is inflammatory. A "car crash" seems an unlikely scenario for the telecom industry. There isn't evidence in this direction. Some challenges? Yes, for sure. Like always.

On consumer mobile pricing -- yes, the trend has been mostly down. Partly this is the nature of the product and market saturation, compounded in some markets by over-competition and over-regulation. Europe especially has this problem. However, in markets where you have four-to-three mergers there are signs that prices can stabilize or go-up

Operators complaining about vendors? This always happens. It's partly justfied, no doubt. It's partly straight-forward vendor-bashing. And sometimes it is a failure on the part of the operator to anticipate, direct and control their destiny.

I could have written this post any time over the past 10 years.
brooks7
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brooks7,
User Rank: Light Sabre
5/16/2019 | 7:43:46 PM
Re: Chief Paleontologist
 

@James_B_Crawshaw

 

So, is it your opinion that Cell Phone bills are going to go up with the deployment of 5G?  Otherwise, it is unclear to me how money gets made.  We already have essentially 100% mobile penetration in the 1st world.  It is not obvious that the mobile carriers are going to do well with an equivalent of fixed wireless.  Mobile pricing plans have been on the decline for some time and people are starting to slow their roll with the purchase of $1,000 iPhones.  So how do carriers double cell phone prices?

Is this a bridge to far?

seven

 
James_B_Crawshaw
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James_B_Crawshaw,
User Rank: Blogger
5/16/2019 | 6:08:08 PM
Chief Paleontologist
Given the dinosaur reference perhaps we should be talking about paleontology instead of archaeology. But if you compare with the energy (electricity and gas) sector or financial services then telco IT doesn't actually look that bad. Sure there is plenty of scope for improvement but I don't see a car crash scenario. A mature industry should cover its cost of capital (including spectrum) and grow in line with GDP. Hopefully with 5G that is where we can get.


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