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Gabriel Brown
Gabriel Brown
1/29/2019 | 10:10:43 AM
Re: Simply not true
Thanks for the comment Barry
ChiefMar87648
ChiefMar87648
1/29/2019 | 9:43:27 AM
Simply not true
This is simply not true. Absolutely no discussion of a Nokia ban that we are aware of - and you would think we would be. We have a strong presence in China, work with many first-class customers and see no reason for that to change. Cheers, Barry French (Nokia CMO)
daveburstein
daveburstein
1/25/2019 | 4:55:33 AM
Data on size of China market
Iain

Reasonable reporting, although I think Shanghai gov ownership of 49.9% of Shanghai Bell might protect them. 

But new data from Nomura suggests the Chinese market is bigger than Genovese's assumptions here. I usually don't quote my own work here but I believe I'm the only English language source. Original story at cww.net.cn, confirmed by me with Nomura.

 

China 5G: 172,000 in 2019, 5M next 6 years (Nomura)


The three Chinese giants expect to install 172,000 base stations in 2019. That's more than the entire networks of Verizon & AT&T, combined. Officially, this is "non-commercial." It probably will be more than twice the entire rest of the world.

Under the direction of Minister Miao Wei, one of the best regulators in the world, the Chinese will be building 5G and edge clouds at an (almost) unbelievable pace. China Tower, owned by the three companies, is talking about bringing 5G to two million sites by 2022-2023.

That would mean 5G - and ~20 ms edge clouds will reach 70+% of China within four years, hundreds of millions of homes. 

Huawei and ZTE will probably get a third of the orders each. That likely means they will be making more base stations than anyone else. Datang, now controlled by Fiberhome, is also hopeful.
Gabriel Brown
Gabriel Brown
1/23/2019 | 1:16:59 PM
Risk of China Ban – Analyst
The risk is there to some extent (obviously), but common sense says "China" needs to keep Nokia and Ericsson interested. Taking them much below current market share risks them deprioritizing Chinese customer needs. They're at a threshold as it is.

Historically, Nokia and Ericsson have been scrupulous about not getting involved in politically-driven trade quotas/disputes/embargoes. For example, they avoided calling for quotas on Huawei equipment in Europe even when they were losing market share to (arguably) artifcially low prices.

But how much does common sense play these days? It makes one less confident in a "standard analysis"


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