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Magnets-are-cool
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Magnets-are-cool,
User Rank: Lightning
5/31/2017 | 4:39:55 AM
More demanding than one-way-video?
I expect that there will be new content and interactivity when facebook sorts out their VR and AR stories. If each VR-user needs 4k video in the down direction and there are 4 users in a household. That's 1Gb to the home used up. If there is AR, then perhaps there is some asstymetrical amount of traffic heading in the other direction as well. But unlikely to be the full 4k up.
kq4ym
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kq4ym,
User Rank: Light Sabre
3/27/2017 | 4:44:35 PM
Re: "Never" is a very long time
It may be hard to predict if and when upload broadcasting by individuals and businesses might be more common than durrent streaming video watching but I would guess it could happen. In that case the fact that "Charter and Cox Communications Inc. are all counting on it to enable multi-gigabit symmetrical speeds of up to 10 Gbit/s," as noted might be a clue that they see the need for those higher speed uploads at least the same speed as downloads as a necessity. 
brooks7
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brooks7,
User Rank: Light Sabre
3/17/2017 | 2:06:56 AM
Re: "Never" is a very long time
 

Suppose we go full 1984 and stream HD video from every nook and cranny of all space.  Call it 1 HD video per 10 sq ft of the entire globe.

I generally argue that there are not the applications to support business scale bandwidths today or for some time.  But in the long term, there probably will be.  My example is stupid, but you are arguing for 640K of RAM.

seven

 

Edit:  I thought I would add something about Multi-cast.  That only works with broadcast streams.  Video on Demand, Netflix, and Youtube can not efficiently use multi-cast.   Even subscribers that are watching the same content will be at separate times in the stream.  The data that each sub is receiving is close to unique.
mhui0
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mhui0,
User Rank: Lightning
3/17/2017 | 1:18:05 AM
Re: "Never" is a very long time
I thought streaming is handled by multicast and geographically dispersed storage, at least for people watching video is concerned.

 

I really doubt bandwidth usage for individuals broadcasting their video will rise to anywhere close to the bandwidth usage of people watching video.
Duh!
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Duh!,
User Rank: Blogger
3/16/2017 | 5:16:54 PM
Re: "Never" is a very long time
That has been my hypothesis for a long time. Growth is sigmoid, not exponential.
brooks7
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brooks7,
User Rank: Light Sabre
3/16/2017 | 10:11:29 AM
Re: "Never" is a very long time
 

Depends.

Desktops and Laptops can't really absorb 1 Gb/s and do anything with it effectively.  There is work to do to build applications and cost effective electronics that actually consume even 100 Mb/s on an ongoing basis - not a burst basis.  Today, HD streaming is the biggest bandwidth eater and it is not close to those limits.

The thing is the bottleneck - from a bandwidth standpoint - is not in the access.  And that is the rub.  What we charge people for is the access bit rate.  The bottlenecks are much deeper in the network, where data is more aggregated.  The network was originally built to handle short bursts of traffic with low active periods.  Streaming breaks that latter bit and causes the average bits per second consumed to go up dramatically.  Streaming and even IoT will put pressure on this last bit.

So, do we need more bps at the access?  Not probably beyond 1Gbps for a LONG time.  What does need to happen is that this bandwidth has less oversubscription over time, dramatically less oversubscription...and with more symmetry to the service.

seven
mhui0
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mhui0,
User Rank: Lightning
3/16/2017 | 2:19:36 AM
Re: "Never" is a very long time
Doesn't the ever increasing bandwidth requirements have natural limits too?
brooks7
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brooks7,
User Rank: Light Sabre
3/16/2017 | 12:10:42 AM
Re: "Never" is a very long time
I think the question we should be asking is whether coax is replaced by fiber or some new wireless.

And I think Coax has a lot longer life yet.  If we go to skinny broadcast bundles backed by switched digital IP video for everything else, then maybe we take 1/2 the spectrum and use it for data.

seven

 
alanbreznick
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alanbreznick,
User Rank: Light Sabre
3/15/2017 | 5:44:15 PM
Re: "Never" is a very long time
I agree with what Dennis said. I also used "never" in the headline because I liked the James Bondian sound of it. Of course, coax and HFC networks will go away someday. But probably not for a long, long time. In the meantime, as stated below, most of us will likely die first. 
mendyk
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mendyk,
User Rank: Light Sabre
3/15/2017 | 5:31:32 PM
Re: "Never" is a very long time
We're leaving doublespeak behind. It's time for quadruplespeak. Fun times.
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