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kq4ym
kq4ym
1/19/2017 | 11:21:28 AM
Re: usage based billing
Yes, it's always a bit scary to try to predict the future, even based on what seems to be some rational arguments and data. Whether the current data is predictive or just a randomness in the long term, we'll not know for sure until the future is behind us. It will be interesting to watch who was on the winning side of the investment vs. revenue business planning.
brooks7
brooks7
1/11/2017 | 10:42:42 AM
Re: usage based billing
 

Thanks Gabriel.

The Service Provider community is awesome at throwing up the we are in trouble card.  It is also used by proponents of one thing or another to justify what they do.  I know Tom is talking about NFV and SDN, but the transformation and change thing has been around the industry for 15 years.  And nothing happened to put them out of business or transform them.

seven

 
Gabriel Brown
Gabriel Brown
1/11/2017 | 3:31:32 AM
Re: usage based billing
If Tom is talking about IP transit, as someone mentioned down thread, the assertion makes more sense.

There's a good piece here on "The Death of Transit": http://www.potaroo.net/ispcol/2016-10/xtransit.html It's fair to say the author is not amassive fan of CenturyLink buying Level 3.

You can't read across to thew whole of service provider business from this data point (for obvious reasons).
brooks7
brooks7
1/10/2017 | 6:37:09 PM
Re: usage based billing
So, Carol...if the operators are claiming that they are losing money on bandwidth...what are they making all their profit on?  Verizon and AT&T both made over $3B in profit last quarter....so its coming from something....

seven

Edit and PS:  Carol the D stand for DISCARD not DETECTION.  Weighted Random Early DISCARD.  Its the kind of stuff that will make things get real...dicey....real fast with the whole usage based pricing.  For example, ever wonder how much data is used by those video ads on your phone when you surf the web?  You didn't want the video...but you are paying for it.
Carol Wilson
Carol Wilson
1/10/2017 | 11:37:43 AM
Re: usage based billing
For the record, I was aware - albeit vaguely - that something called weighted random early detection existed, I just hadn't thought about it much, and especially not as a revenue tool. 
mendyk
mendyk
1/10/2017 | 11:25:22 AM
Re: Revenue and cost per bit analysis
Agreed -- some CSPs have a stronger sense of urgency. And pain and suffering are part of just about any kind of transformation. It's good to hear that our collective empathy for network operators may be running dry.
Carol Wilson
Carol Wilson
1/10/2017 | 11:14:31 AM
Re: Revenue and cost per bit analysis
I think it depends on your definition of "rushed." Companies such as AT&T and DT have certainly been moving much faster than they did historically to virtualize their networks precisely because they did see this coming. 

Tom Nolle also shared his candid opinions on that process, which - spoiler alert - are somewhat critical. But I'm getting input from other industry sources before sharing those here. 
mendyk
mendyk
1/10/2017 | 11:00:00 AM
Re: Revenue and cost per bit analysis
There's probably a bit of "woe is us" going on here, and a bit of arithmetic sleight of hand. Even so, network operators have seen this coming for years, and yet they haven't exactly rushed to change their MO to adapt to changing times.
Carol Wilson
Carol Wilson
1/10/2017 | 10:24:34 AM
Re: Revenue and cost per bit analysis
Actually the article does spell out where the information comes from - Nolle's direct survey of 47 global operators. This is what they are saying, and have been saying for some time now. They are talking about their overall costs, and it isn't broken down by access costs, transport costs or wireless versus wireline networks. They are looking at the macro trends of how they continue to scale their networks to meet demand for bandwidth, and seeing how the current method of building networks doesn't scale to meet future demand. 

 
brooks7
brooks7
1/10/2017 | 9:23:24 AM
Re: Revenue and cost per bit analysis
Well, yeah if costs exceeds revenue then why is everybody making money?

seven

 
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