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12/5/2016 | 5:31:01 PM
Re: FUD-based marketing pitch
Ed Amoroso here: While I agree that the statistical probability of something happening in the next four years lends well to making broad "expert" predictions, that's not really what I was hoping to convey. I believe that a serious, life-threatening cyber attack of enormous consequence will come duirng the next White House administration for several reasons: First, my experience is that many of the more serious cyber attacks are prompted by the belief that some target entity, group, or individual can be easily provoked. Second, my experience is that with improvements in data protection, the next logical APT step involves destructive cyber attacks, which are quite a bit more devastating. And finally, when I graph attack intensity estimates (such as DDOS pps or bps), I see a logical inflection point where things will begin to change. DDOS attacks, for example, are roughly hitting national peering capacity, so they must change - and this will not be for the better. Finally, your point about me running a consulting firm is flattering. Sadly, my consulting group right now is just me - and I cannot take on any more work than I already have. Maybe next year, I'll hire some people and then I guess you will have a reasonable point about me being a grubby marketing consultant. But for now, it's just me. Thanks for taking the time to comment, Ed
12/5/2016 | 2:01:58 AM
FUD-based marketing pitch
One does not have to be a genius to "predict" that something is going to happen in the next four years -- it is merely a matter of statistical probability based on historical data.

And the "call for action" is expected from someone who runs a security-consulting firm.

Carol Wilson
Carol Wilson
12/2/2016 | 1:28:40 PM
Re: Very powerful stuff
I think your last point is the key thing, Patrick. 

We heard from multiple folks, including John Marinho, Ed and Dale Drew from Level 3 - I am about to post a story on his talk - and one point I kept hearing was that technology would allow ISPs to do more to block bad traffic, but there are reasons why they can't just do that on a blanket basis. 

And that's where policymakers need to be able to step in. But first they have to truly understand the issues and that starts with knowing what they don't know and, as you said, getting uncomfortable with the current state of affairs. 
12/2/2016 | 12:24:37 PM
Very powerful stuff
This was an unusually powerful talk, even by Ed's standards.

I thought one of the biggest points he made was that while a great many professions are very well represented in Congress in terms of the previous backgrounds and experience of law makers - finance, public service, law, education etc -  hardly any have a background in computer science or cyber security. 

Hence hardly any law makers truly "get it", and far too many comfort themselves all too easily with tough-sounding declarations, many of which are inoperable, counter-productive or both.

John Marinho from CTIA alluded to similar arguments yesterday, albeit his role curtails his freedom to expand on them as fulsomely as Ed is able to now.

As a Brit I know that I really can't go too far wrong by keeping my nose well out of U.S politics. 

As a network security analyst, I can nevertheless reflect that Ministers, Prime Ministers, Senators, MPs, and Congressmen and women, of all kinds, and in all countries, have to have much more intense exposure to this kind of hard, real-world, expertise and insight. 

To Ed's point, their comfort level with their own ignorance has to be unacceptable.


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