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kq4ym
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kq4ym,
User Rank: Light Sabre
11/22/2016 | 1:18:46 PM
Re: Don't blame the analytics
One does wonder if there is some pollster bias set up that slanted questions as well as just who and how many were polled. Polls aren't always exactly science, although it would be great if there could be a "control" and "experimental" group just to avoid any bias in the polling. But then again, we don't always know how to predict just who and what to ask either in order to cover all the variations possible.
kq4ym
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kq4ym,
User Rank: Light Sabre
11/16/2016 | 11:27:22 AM
Re: Yea
As polls indicate what people say they will do, and what people say isn't always the truth, it's a bit sticky to bet the farm on polling. Analytics should measure on the other hand what people actually do. But, even there it's sometimes a guess that we're monitoring the data that will lead to a likely outcome. Polling and even analytyics can be sometimes like betting at the race track. We can ask horse racing fans "who they like" and then monitor the actually betting on the odds board. But, even seconds before the horses exit the starting gate we don't know the winner until a particular horse crosses the finish line.  The winner could be the odds on favorite, or a long shot.
chuckj
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chuckj,
User Rank: Light Sabre
11/14/2016 | 11:43:55 AM
Don't blame the analytics
The failure of the analytics for this election was not the analytics but those setting the parameters to skew the results to their globalist agenda.  What was surprising was despite of a sea of analytics to skew public opinion or squelch turnout Trump still won and won decisively. I have no problem trusting analytics on whether people like apples better or orange better, there is no globalist agenda there.
JohnAnderson1985
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JohnAnderson1985,
User Rank: Light Beer
11/13/2016 | 8:59:05 AM
Yea
I think that analysts weren't so wrong. It's just television showed Hilary cause she owed medias. It's obvious.
bosco_pcs
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bosco_pcs,
User Rank: Light Sabre
11/11/2016 | 3:01:17 PM
But what kind of analytics?
To begin with, phone polling is no longer sufficient. I mean, I routinely hang up on people when they say "survey." I don't mean to be mean but nit it in the bud is the best way to prevent social engineering.

That said, it may be unfair to blame it on analytics. Polling is at best predictive analytics. Very often, it is just descriptive big data (data lake) kind. A good refining algorithm might get from the Warehouse to a Mart. Then what? Allegedly, the victor was using Cambridge Analytica's microtargeting services. And allegedly, the same outfit was the power behind Brexit. So, now we are venturing into prescriptive analytics territory. Perhaps one can call it precision data.

Honestly, I have been away from data warehouse stuff for more than 5 years; but if I know this stuff, the pros running the campaigns should too. They shouldn't just listen to outfits like 538 for their forecast and prescription.

Finally, Mrs Clinton won the popular votes. So the polls weren't entirely wrong. They just didn't account the electoral college level of complexity. Their system was incomplete. That's a pity, considering the campaign had enough resources to take other things into considerations. And today Chairman Podesta said (h/t Mother Jones) the campaign did witness the erosion in the last 10 days (and you know what happened, right)
mendyk
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mendyk,
User Rank: Light Sabre
11/11/2016 | 10:51:33 AM
BDA = BAD?
Good points, Mitch. In the rush to abdicate decision-making to non-humans, we kind of forgot about GIGO. The US election and the Brexit vote are stark reminders that output is ultimately dependent on input. BDA isn't useless, but we need to understand the limits of its usefulness and then determine whether the investment is warranted for specific applications. In the inevitable hype/disillusion/recovery process, BDA is now deeper into the disillusion phase.


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