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albreznick
albreznick
2/28/2014 | 5:22:09 PM
Re: Short-term win for Netflix
Perhaps, Dan. But now Comcast can reasonably argue that the market is regulating itself by causing them to make deals with OTT players like Netflix. So, if the market is operating just fine and dandy, then there's no need for the feds to step in, right? And if Netflix isn't complaining about the deal, who's being harmed? I'm not saying I necessarily agree with all that argument but I think Comcast can make a good case along those lines. 
jabailo
jabailo
2/26/2014 | 10:37:00 PM
Re: Last Licks
I think the actions of these megacompanies speaks for itself.  If it were a growing concern, then each would be duking it out for profits.  As it is, what we see are two tired prize fighters holding on to each other to keep from hitting the mat.

It comes down to math and topology.  The cable networks were never built for data.  The cables are too thick and bulky and expensive and prone to wear comparied to an optical fiber or wireless.   Quite frankly, based on the numbers were getting out of wireless broadband, I'm not so sure about fiber either except that 10Gpbs is hard to argue with.

And latency.  Can a network designed for one way transmission ever hold its own with the type of two way realtime transmission and submillisecond ping needed for real time gaming?

Look at where Google is going...clouds, Chromecast.  They are completely removing computing "boxes" from the home and simulating them in the cloud.  Eventually, all they will have to do is ship screenshots as HDMI.   That means big fast bandwidth.  Cable can't do it.  Cable is defunct.   Grab the cash while you can.

 
DOShea
DOShea
2/26/2014 | 9:46:09 PM
Re: Short-term win for Netflix
So I'm trying to figure why this helps the chances of the Comcast-TWC deal making it past regulators. Won't Comcast wielding its influence to get an Internet giant to pay for access actually hurt its chance of getting approval for a deal that will make it a much bigger and more influential player?

Comcast supposedly took Netflix's opposition out of the equation, but didn't it also just highlight the reason why just about everyone else should oppose it?
albreznick
albreznick
2/26/2014 | 9:16:55 PM
Re: Last Licks
More doom and gloom for cable's future, eh? Sounds like you know something that Brian Roberts' managemewnt team doesn't. Do you think that cable operators can shift their strategy in time to avoid Armageddon? Or is there nothing they can do?  
albreznick
albreznick
2/26/2014 | 9:13:10 PM
Re: Short-term win for Netflix
I say short-term win for Netflix too. But very possibly long-term win for Comcast. Once they get their merger thru the DoJ and FCC, they my well be free to try to bully Netflix around again. Would you like to see Brian Roberts and Reed Hastings together in a boxing ring?   
jabailo
jabailo
2/26/2014 | 7:06:40 PM
Last Licks
I see this as last licks for cable to squeeze as much money out of the business before it starts being replaced by high speed fiber and wireless broadband.   You're already seeing 100Mbps speeds with wireless Wimax/LTE in South Korea and Google is rolling out 1Gbps and experimenting with 10Gpbs.   I've even read that Google might give away it's "old fashioned" 10Mpbs fiber for free!  Where does that leave cable?   And then you've got DirecTV offering more synchronized programming for very little per month, and it's bundling itself with telco/optical providers.   A $30 a month super fast optical fiber and a $30 DirecTV content license plus $8 for netflix is still way under cable premium with all the extras and yet will supply enough content to keep a household fairly saturated.

Netflix figured it's not worth arguing or losing subscribers, and in a few years, we'll be bouncing our service over everything from satellites, to fibers, to ... who knows what!

 
wanlord
wanlord
2/26/2014 | 2:54:42 PM
Re: Short-term win for Netflix
Good points. Which is why we won't know the financial relationship. There is an NDA between the parties because if it was public, it was affect other ISP negotiations.
KBode
KBode
2/26/2014 | 11:39:38 AM
Re: Short-term win for Netflix
I'd agree. It sounds like Comcast was willing to strike a deal at a lower rate and for a longer contract than they otherwise would. Primarily so they can rid the press of criticism of the Netflix streaming problems at a time they're trying to insist they would bring technological advacement to new territories -- and point to regulators and say how they get along well with Netflix.

But yes, a few years down the road and does anybody think the likes of AT&T, Verizon and Comcast aren't going to raise rates whenever and however possible as they elbow further into core network markets?
msilbey
msilbey
2/26/2014 | 10:57:21 AM
Short-term win for Netflix
I think this is a short-term win for Netflix. If/when Comcast and TWC merge, Netflix will have a deal in place that covers the largest distributer in the country. (Don't the combined numbers give Comcast/TWC something like 40% of broadband customers?) However, farther down the line, there is nothing to stop Comcast from increasing the amount of money it demands. And I would think Netflix would have a harder time threatening a content blackout than traditional programmers given its dependence on direct revenue from consumers. It could certainly make a stink and try to drive public opinion, but I assume the financial pain would be significant. 


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