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Ray@LR
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[email protected],
User Rank: Blogger
9/3/2013 | 4:56:16 AM
Re: What should Vodafone do?
When the valuations get low enough, maybe Google will start buying the incumbents.
macster
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macster,
User Rank: Light Bulb
9/3/2013 | 4:02:57 AM
Re: What should Vodafone do?
Hello hello,

Been ages! How are you guys and gals? Good summer?

I'd look at Vodafone's earnings (excluding Verizon), assume an earnings multiple of 10, then see what analysts have priced the rest of VOD to be. Then, benchmark VOD against others (who are similar).

Interesting times! Am very interested to see if an incumbent (in Europe or wlsewhere) gets taken over. 
Sarah Thomas
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Sarah Thomas,
User Rank: Blogger
9/2/2013 | 5:17:06 PM
Re: What should Vodafone do?
Great perspective, Ray. I understand your reasoning for wanting Vodafone to do the acquiring rather than get involved with another US service provider. I have a feeling AT&T will be quite interested though, especially after its T-Mobile bid failed while Sprint's Softbank merger was approved.
Ray@LR
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[email protected],
User Rank: Blogger
9/2/2013 | 4:01:45 PM
Re: What should Vodafone do?
As long as it avoids that black hole.... that would swallow it up even quicker. 

This VOD team seems to have a very specific gameplan though so I'm sure it has its cards lined up. Executing and warding off advances is going to be tough though.
antisceptic
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antisceptic,
User Rank: Light Beer
9/2/2013 | 2:48:19 PM
Re: What should Vodafone do?
Strong words Ray!

1) yes it should sell: no control means little influence. being the most profitable enterprise in the Vodafone portfolio doesn't vouch for its future nor for dividends, as we have seen in the past.

2) value is a matter of perception. I don't think it is undervalued. Verizon gains the equivalent of a printing press.

3) it is not clear what management wants, with a less-than-stellar performance in all of its other businesses/regions. it SHOULD however consolidate and focus on key differenciators, building on its europe-wide presence

4) I agree that it is both a great opportunity and a great challenge. by leveraging roaming for its mobile business, and Europe-wide fixed backbone, it could bring significant added value to both customers and shareholders. Or it could wander away in a strategy black hole...
Ray@LR
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[email protected],
User Rank: Blogger
9/2/2013 | 12:41:06 PM
Re: Transfer madness
maybe Arsenal has some VOD shares....
PaulERainford
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PaulERainford,
User Rank: Light Sabre
9/2/2013 | 12:40:08 PM
Transfer madness
Not only that, Arsenal have agreed a £42.4m deal for Mesut Ozil. Crazy times.
Ray@LR
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User Rank: Blogger
9/2/2013 | 12:29:54 PM
DEAL AGREED!!
Of course, as soon as I posted this blog, Vodafone announced that the deal had been agreed.... another, newer atricle to follow...
Ray@LR
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[email protected],
User Rank: Blogger
9/2/2013 | 12:18:17 PM
What should Vodafone do?
There are a number of key questions about the whole Vodafone/Verizon affair:

 

1) Should Vodafone sell at all?

 

2) If it does, is it seling itself short at $130 billion for its 45% stake?

 

3) Does it WANT to be taken over by another company post Verizon deal?

 

4) Whose best interests are being catered t in al of this ? (OK, actually, we know the answer to that one... and it's not the customers....)

 

If I was to bet on the outcome, I would put my koney on this whole epsiode looking like the first domino that will end up with Vodafone's demise circa 2016.


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