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dwdm2
dwdm2
12/4/2012 | 10:47:26 PM
re: The Shorter Roads to 40G
"The Shorter Roads to 40G" a wonderful report by Scott Clavenna.

It appears that, the biggest challenge is NOT the technology for dispersion control but the market.

While 40G is a must for meeting the bandwidth demand, the vendors who are actually in the market, are still sorting out OC-48 and trying to get into OC-192.

So whatever activities going on around OC-768, are still based on future predictions, with a hope that the investment will pay off!

Regards,
AR
optigirl
optigirl
12/4/2012 | 10:47:25 PM
re: The Shorter Roads to 40G
I have heard mixed stories about the potential for this market but I would tend to agree that we will someday live in a world where 40G is real, deployed and profitable, the latter being the biggest issue of all.

Who will buy this stuff? Not the RBOCs, and I doubt that Sprint and Qwest will be doing it anytime in the next 3 years. AT&T still has a lot of old fiber laying about so that would be an issue for them as well. I would bet on a 5 year plan for something significant to happen beyond the normal vendor hype, sponsored consulting plugs or one-off situations. How long did it take for us to get from OC-3 to OC-12 to OC-48 to OC-192.

A lot needs to happen before we get to 192 and while the advocacy for the technology is certainly something nice, I think you might be getting excited about possibility and potential instead of what history and our experiences have shown us to be true.
skeptic
skeptic
12/4/2012 | 10:47:24 PM
re: The Shorter Roads to 40G
Additionally, optical switches or routers can take advantage of short-reach 40G to extend the physical dimensions of a network element, creating a GǣlogicalGǥ optical switch or router out of shelves in different carrier POPs.
--------------------

Most people will not do this. The problem with
"logical" routers is that they are terribly
inefficient:

if you connect two elements:

- You have to buy two OC-768 ports

- waste one or more slots on each device

- Manage and monitor two elements

Now if you connect four elements, the number
of slots/ports wasted goes up dramatically.
The only way to keep it from going up is to
compromise on bandwidth between elements.

Fewer network elements is always better.

Every extra interconnect within the central
office is a waste of money and increases
operations cost.


dwdm2
dwdm2
12/4/2012 | 10:47:24 PM
re: The Shorter Roads to 40G
Who will buy this stuff?

Actually the big gyus have already started probing into the gadgets necessary for 768. Because the technology is still not matured yet, and even for the alpha or beta (that are available) the cost is prohibitive for small guys.

This is where the vacuum is. Its the small and medium companies and the service providers who will make the market vibrant...but they are completely out of touch!

AR
optigirl
optigirl
12/4/2012 | 10:47:24 PM
re: The Shorter Roads to 40G
A lot needs to happen before we get to 192 .....

Correction: 768.

Need more coffee I guess....

:)
melao
melao
12/4/2012 | 10:47:23 PM
re: The Shorter Roads to 40G
"Who will buy this stuff?

Actually the big gyus have already started probing into the gadgets necessary for 768. Because the technology is still not matured yet, and even for the alpha or beta (that are available) the cost is prohibitive for small guys.

This is where the vacuum is. Its the small and medium companies and the service providers who will make the market vibrant...but they are completely out of touch!"

I have another view also. My guess is that 40G will be mostly on the core. And i see High Channel Count DWDM systems to pop-up more and more. Because without that the whole philosophy of all-optical network wouldn-t work. Which is driving lot-s of researches from a lot of vendors.

Like, nowadays NT claims to have completed a system with 160 wavelengths, 10Gig each one. Well, i looked on papers of that project (the terabit challenge). Let me tell you it was only possible because the line-amp sites were luckly placed correctly. It won-t be possible in 90% of the networks.
So if with 10Gig the Hi Channel Count systems have a LOT of trouble, imagine 40Gig.

I work on a carrier, the only link that we have 32 wavelengths uses 2.5G, because it wouldn-t be possible with 10Gig.

Well, that-s it! Cheers!
Edge0fSpace
Edge0fSpace
12/4/2012 | 10:47:23 PM
re: The Shorter Roads to 40G
Actually, most of the "next-gen" (I use this term somewhat lightly, and loosely) router vendors out there are looking into ways to connect the fabric together. (Not line cards.) This makes logical routers considerably more efficient than the scenario given. (All your line cards are revenue producing.)

E0S
dwdm2
dwdm2
12/4/2012 | 10:47:23 PM
re: The Shorter Roads to 40G
Every extra interconnect within the central
office is a waste of money and increases
operations cost.
-----------------------

And I'll add: Every extra interconnect adds several degrees of network complicacies and may end up with fewer available channels.

However, while this scenario appears to be discouraging for 40G, I hear few companies are thinking of an "Integrated solution" where all the boxes will be integrated into one!

Does anyone know more specifics about such efforts?

AR
PhotonGolf
PhotonGolf
12/4/2012 | 10:47:22 PM
re: The Shorter Roads to 40G

First, I have to say that I'm biased. OK, got that out ...

I see the guts if the 40G transponder already approaching the costs of the 10G guts just two years ago. And these prices are falling constantly. There is new technology just coming available which will drive this curve down, and, provided greedy vendors aren't too greedy, I believe 40G transponders at the 2.5x10G price point will be here easily in 2003.

If that's the key as Scott says, lots of things line up.

P

PS I'm really talking about LH and discreet transponders rather than some fantasy integrated solution.
dwdm2
dwdm2
12/4/2012 | 10:47:22 PM
re: The Shorter Roads to 40G
I work on a carrier, the only link that we have 32 wavelengths uses 2.5G, because it wouldn-t be possible with 10Gig.
-----------------------

My hunch is this owing to the legacy switching technology and godd old TFF based dwidum! I guess you could use an upgrade to 40G! :-)
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