The Chinese Are Coming, Says Poll

COMMENTS

Newest First | Oldest First | Threaded View

<< < Page 9 / 11 > >>

desikar 12/5/2012 | 2:15:02 AM

re: The Chinese Are Coming, Says Poll When he is civil, edgsansonet does bring up good points...

Agree with the comment on government behavior - China and India have been shaped a lot more by their regulatory / government / preference networks than by markets.

In fact, from what I remember reading a few years ago, the main reason why India did well in software services is that that sector was the least regulated - the government was simply too slow to figure out how to control it, and by the mid-90s was wise enough not to kill the golden goose.

Despite the governments, both countries are changing rapidly, hopefully for the better. Also, both countries have a cheery optimism that is hard to ignore when you visit. This was something that was characteristic of the US in the mid-90s before the bubble - now it is not there - we are paying a price for the boom and bust in that the optimism is cautious. It is quite possible there will be a bust in China as well given the financial situation. Despite the low yuan, China is recording a trade deficit - that is a scary situation. What happens if investment starts getting regulated? I mean, really regulated as opposed to government officials registering concern about having half the cement factories in the world? Am not kidding.

India is sidestepping some of the unique problems of manufacturing intensive economies, and appears to be better positioned to optimize the use of capital - the same direction the US has been moving for decades now.

Will be interesting to watch this evolve over our lifetimes.

desikar

Reply | Post Message | MESSAGES LIST | START A BOARD

Indy_lite 12/5/2012 | 2:15:00 AM

re: The Chinese Are Coming, Says Poll
BEL had sales of $555 mil on 2003. thats likely
the biggest player in india in electronics/sw/telecom/defence area. got this from annual report on their website.

UTstarcom the lil brother of huawei and zte has
crossed $1bil hasnt it ?

UTStarcom, Net sales for the 4th quarter of 2003 were $643.6 million, an increase of 114 percent over net sales of $301.1 million reported in the fourth quarter of 2002. Full-year net sales increased to $1.96 billion, an increase of 100 percent over net sales of $981.8 million reported in 2002. And it's growing at 45% yr-yr. UTSI will ride on back of Indian market if it happens to boom someday.

Huawei 2003 sale was $2.8b, ZTE was $2.3b.

Reply | Post Message | MESSAGES LIST | START A BOARD

stephenpcooke 12/5/2012 | 2:14:59 AM

re: The Chinese Are Coming, Says Poll Geoff,

You quoted my post, not Abby's in two cases anyway, so I will respond.

The reason that the VP's I know are disillusioned is that those standards are NOT customer driven. You correctly state that the customers are the carriers yet, when the standards come up for voting the various startups who paid their fees get an equal vote to the carriers. Put yourself in their shoes for a minute. Low-level things like cabling can actually make a huge difference to a major carrier so they are interested. You have looked at MPLS and IETF, now look at Telcordia and the ITU. The first 2 have how many active and deployed standards? Combined they are a 'drop in the ocean' of relevant telecom standards. Most of the existing and deployed standards, please remember that there is very little telecom equipment that is ever removed from a network so there is an enormous amount of legacy equipment that still has to be supported, have huge amounts of revenue-generating equipment in service. These are the standards that they are most likely to grab onto.

That 'ONE POOR GUY' is not there to influence the standards, just to monitor them because the voting is not carrier-centered. They feel that they cannot affect the standard(s) so they just monitor it and then issue their own versions for deployment; and guess whose version will be required for purchasing and deployment...? The carriers have more combined standards experience than anyone on this board and they know how to get these things done. If they don't get them done in the way that they want them they will write their own addendums that will be required for deployment in their network. So what does 'standard' mean in this context...?

Reply | Post Message | MESSAGES LIST | START A BOARD

Indy_lite 12/5/2012 | 2:14:59 AM

re: The Chinese Are Coming, Says Poll This might have contributed to the difference:

Before 1984-85, it was almost impossible for Chinese from Mainland to study abroad, during 1985-1990, China slowly opened its door, it was very difficult to go out(there were only a few Toefl and GRE test centers in the whole country). So the majority of Mainland Chinese who could go overseas to study did so after 1990, the destinations are the U.S, Japan, Canada, Australia, UK, rest of Europe, Russia (in the order by number).

SO by now, these people are just starting to get enough professional experience to really start a company, this explains why the majority of Chinese founded companies in the Valley are built by Chinese from Taiwan.

People from India have been studying in U.S campus for a lot longer, dating back to 1960/70s, the big names like Gururaj Desh, vinod kolsna etc came here in 1970s. This has the effect that the best Indians might have left India, while in the early 80s, Chinese have nowhere to go, so some of them founded companies locally, and out of the pile of failures came out the Huawei, ZTE, Legend, Founder ...

Reply | Post Message | MESSAGES LIST | START A BOARD

bookbinder 12/5/2012 | 2:14:57 AM

re: The Chinese Are Coming, Says Poll This is a very good observation. My impression is that many Huawei engineers went to college in 1990s and 1980s. At that time, it was very difficult for Chinese students to go abroad for study. The students from the most famous schools, if they wer lucky, had the choice to work for big foreign comopanies such as IBM, Motorola, which paid them very generously by that time's standard. The students for the less famous ones couldn't get in those companies, they had to work for far-less promising companies (for that time).

The same happened in Taiwan. In 1960s and 1970s, lots of students from Taiwan's best school, if they had the financial means, had come to study in US and chose to stay here. The students from the 2nd-tier schools, couldn't come here because they were not rich/smart/with good grades/etc enough to be accepted by a US school, had no choice but working for local companies or schools. With the take-off of Taiwan's economy, those people staying in Taiwan started their own companies. So in early 90's, when bad economy in US forced US-based Taiwanese engineers to look for jobs in Taiwan, they hade to submit their resumes to those guys who were less rich/smart/etc than they in 1970s and 1960s.

Reply | Post Message | MESSAGES LIST | START A BOARD

Peter Heywood 12/5/2012 | 2:14:51 AM

re: The Chinese Are Coming, Says Poll Indy_lite, where do you get the Huawei and ZTE 2003 sales figures from?

Huawei tells me its unaudited 2003 sales are $3.2 billion.

ZTE tells me that it hasn't announced its 2003 figures yet. It says its 2002 sales were $1.3 billion, which makes your $2.3 billion look high.

I've discovered that you have to watch it with these figures...make sure you're looking at amounts billed rather than amounts booked in terms of contracts won.

Reply | Post Message | MESSAGES LIST | START A BOARD

Indy_lite 12/5/2012 | 2:14:50 AM

re: The Chinese Are Coming, Says Poll - I made a typo, the report said Huawei revenue was $3.8b, not 2.8b.

- ZTE web site says "2003年实现合同销售额251.9亿元".
25.1billion RMB / 8.2 = $3b. (The English version of ZTE web site is only updated with the 2002 figure in the "About ZTE" page). http://www.zte.com.cn/01about/...

- Do you have the number on last of the "big 3" Datang Telecom & Tech Co Ltd ? http://www.catt.ac.cn/

<hr>
http://news.com.com/2100-1037-...

Chinese technology giant Huawei Technologies hit a new sales record for the year, as its international business surged in 2003.

The company on Tuesday reported global sales of $3.83 billion, a 42 percent increase from the previous year. International sales, which make up roughly 27 percent of the company's overall orders, grew to $1.05 billion in 2003. That compares with $552 million in 2002, a 90 percent increase. The company's domestic market increased 29 percent to $2.78 billion, up from $2.15 billion in 2002.

Reply | Post Message | MESSAGES LIST | START A BOARD

Peter Heywood 12/5/2012 | 2:14:50 AM

re: The Chinese Are Coming, Says Poll Good point about cheery optimism. I really like the way the Chinese and Indians seem happy - makes me want to smile with them.

Reply | Post Message | MESSAGES LIST | START A BOARD

Abby 12/5/2012 | 2:14:46 AM

re: The Chinese Are Coming, Says Poll HI Geoff,

I'm assuming that you don't have experience working on standards, since you did not mention it in your remarks. Therefore, I'd like to propose a challenge:

1). Pick an IETF working group that is of interest to you.
2). Contact the chair and ask him/her to let you attend their meetings for six months as an observer. Additionally, being that your a member of the press, if you get their agreement to your participation, also agree to any stipulation they might demand in honoring your attendance such as a non-disclosure, etc.
3). If you get past 1 & 2, over the next six months really work hard to understand the positions within the group, ask questions, and stay on top of everything that is going on, just like you were an actual member. You could even take a position for 3 months as a vendor and then 3 months as a carrier.
4). I don't expect you to report back, but I think you have one hell of a ride.

Have a nice day
Abby :-)

Reply | Post Message | MESSAGES LIST | START A BOARD

Peter Heywood 12/5/2012 | 2:14:39 AM

re: The Chinese Are Coming, Says Poll Indy_lite, the figures you're quoting are the value of contracts won by Huawei and ZTE in 2003, not the amount they billed customers.

As both companies are growing quite fast, there's quite a big difference between the booked and the billed figure.

Huawei has given me its booked and billed figures for 2003 - $3.8 billion and $3.2 billion respectively. These are unaudited as of yet.

ZTE says it will announced its 2003 results in early April. Its revenue (the amount billed) in 2002 was $1.3 bn. The amount booked for 2003 is $3.04 billion. This is a 49.96 percent increase on the equivalent figure a year ago, according to ZTE. Makes me think that its 2003 revenues will probably be around $2 billion, not $3 billion.

Reply | Post Message | MESSAGES LIST | START A BOARD

<< < Page 9 / 11 > >>