You mentioned Fidelity, who recently reported they had increased their holdings in CIEN by approximately 7million shares, as an example. Ideally they were able to pick up these shares in the $13-$15 range that is the area of share price for CIEN during the period in October that the sell side analyst we have been talking about gave his spiel. The volume during this same period jumped up considerably (double) as well.
As you say that I have only part of the story, we rarely ever have the whole story, yet I still maintain that this analyst made a large blunder and I don't know what all his research said. I doubt that the company gave him the wrong information on September bookings, but anything is possible. For him to make such a call immediately after the company reiterated their earnings meant pretty much one thing-that Ciena was going to miss their earnings, much like INFN. His call had a large influence on the stock price and frankly, he blew it.
A lot of these analysts were wrong (so far) on the company's ability to successfully absorb the Nortel MEN division and I don't fault him here.
I'm going to guess that these buy side guys don't all speak with one voice, yet they are much smarter than the sell side analysts, according to you - so the company pulled one over on all these smarter guys, as well as one sell side guy?
He could have talked to the suppliers or the customers. I believe he had exactly 0 to do with any stock price. Analysts blow it all the time.
The buy side analysts often work for the institutions. In that case (for example for Fidelity), the fund managers listen to those folks. There is a 2nd tier of analysts that deal with second tier funds. Now, do you listen to a person that you are paying $100K a month for OR a person that you can get their info for free (which is what the sell side guys do)? A fund holder does not likely have input from multiple buy side analysts on any given company. And analyst opinions do vary (as can be seen by the ratings of sell side guys on companies).
As to what companies "pulled over" on an analyst, you would have to see what the research said. One thing to remember a company can be a great company and a terrible investment (in my opinion see Cisco). Analysts of all types compete for news and the better ones have sources up and down the chain around a company (its customers, its competitors and its vendors). Not all analysts are good and like all people they make wrong calls.
If I look at Ciena and Nortel, I would say Ciena has a really checkered history in buying things and doing well with them. Some analyst might take that approach and put a sell on the company. Another might say that this is a great way of building scale and put a buy on it. Who is correct is yet to be written.
What are you talking about? You admit you don't have any research. You don't know what any analyst said. You don't know which months the quarters end for the companies you are talking about. You don't know what the companies said or reported.
Yet you are so sure that everything you think is right.
I'm not exactly sure which word mental health workers would use to describe that but I am pretty sure they have one.
Well, it appears I've touched a nervel. And speaking of mental health you might want to go back on your meds. before something blows.
As for companies, Ciena is what we are talking about here although sort of like the above article about Tellabs, the prior article most referred to dealt with INFN, which had just reported its earnings. Ciena was to report Dec. 8.
As for analysts, we have only specified one with some mention of unnamed buy side analysts. I did refer to unnamed analysts having issues with Ciena being able to digest its purchase of the Nortel MEN division.
I have my opinions, like everyone, and I will voice them occasionally. It appears you do too, however all you have done here is namecall. You haven't given anything, except BS.
By definition, you cannot subscribe to a buy side analyst. You can only invest in a fund. When a buy side guy is telling you a story, it is only because he is either loaded to the gills and is talking his own book or he wants to unload a piece of crap into your lap.
Broad generalizations about skill levels in professions is a dangerous game. I think the relevant data is one can make much more money on the buy side than sell side, and talent follows money. But that doesn't mean there aren't bad buy-side guys and good sell side guys.
You mentioned Fidelity, who recently reported they had increased their holdings in CIEN by approximately 7million shares, as an example. Ideally they were able to pick up these shares in the $13-$15 range that is the area of share price for CIEN during the period in October that the sell side analyst we have been talking about gave his spiel. The volume during this same period jumped up considerably (double) as well.
As you say that I have only part of the story, we rarely ever have the whole story, yet I still maintain that this analyst made a large blunder and I don't know what all his research said. I doubt that the company gave him the wrong information on September bookings, but anything is possible. For him to make such a call immediately after the company reiterated their earnings meant pretty much one thing-that Ciena was going to miss their earnings, much like INFN. His call had a large influence on the stock price and frankly, he blew it.
A lot of these analysts were wrong (so far) on the company's ability to successfully absorb the Nortel MEN division and I don't fault him here.