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12/4/2012 | 10:22:19 PM
re: Solution for the Fiber Glut: Turn It Off?
broadband: 1. Synonym [in analog technology] wideband. 2. A descriptive term for evolving digital technologies that provide consumers a signal-switched facility offering integrated access to voice, high-speed data service, video-demand services, and interactive delivery services.

12/4/2012 | 10:22:17 PM
re: Solution for the Fiber Glut: Turn It Off?
"I don't know when this "definition" was coined, but someone had better tell the data trandmission industry to find another term for the large digital cross connect switches and for the bandwidth scale that is E3 and above.

Personally I hate having to find another term for something because it was suborned by someone else to be used for a totally different purpose."
May be ITU-T I.121 classification is better based on the services. It defined into interactive or distribution services. In order to deliever that, you need FTTH, high bit rate SDH or SONET and ATM. The speed and BW would based on the services requirements.

;-) st
12/4/2012 | 10:22:17 PM
re: Solution for the Fiber Glut: Turn It Off?
"quoting: Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1952 "

In 1952, the technology was somewhat limited. The applications that it would support was somewhat limited. While fixed circuit connectivity was available, the technology for computers to communicate was also somewhat limited. Thomas Watson did not realize that his imagination was not good enough to be able to see the possiblities of things.

In many ways our imaginations are not good enough either. A couple of years ago someone asked me what I thought the Internet would be in 2010. I told them that my imagination wasn't good enough. I told them that it would be up to today's children to determine how it would be.

I design and build infrastructure. Sometimes for enterprise intranets, sometimes for generating revenue. Even today I marvel at the "look", "sound", and even "feel" of computing today. Is "smell" going to be added tomorrow?

How many of you have read "Neuromancer" by William Gibson? Do you know when it was written? Do you know that it was where the term "cyber space" was coined?

When I design an architecture for a new technology I find that I use process symbolism that is not too different than what William Gibson used in that book. Does that make me a network cowboy?

I think that book should be required reading for all advanced technology data communications and computing people.

Have fun reading.
12/4/2012 | 10:22:14 PM
re: Solution for the Fiber Glut: Turn It Off?
Anyone Ever Hear Of AOD? You Know, the Kind Bell, Edison Experimented with with the Photophone?:-))....

Paradigm Party Just ahead of the bull market imho for those that dare to embrace change;)

On June 3, 1880, Alexander Graham Bell transmitted the first wireless telephone message on his newly-invented "photophone." Bell believed the photophone was his most important invention. The device allowed for the transmission of sound on a beam of light. Of the eighteen patents granted in Bell's name alone, and the twelve he shared with his collaborators, four were for the photophone.

Bell's photophone worked by projecting voice through an instrument toward a mirror. Vibrations in the voice caused similar vibrations in the mirror. Bell directed sunlight into the mirror, which captured and projected the mirror's vibrations. The vibrations were transformed back into sound at the receiving end of the projection. The photophone functioned similarly to the telephone, except the photophone used light as a means of projecting the information, while the telephone relied on electricity.

Although the photophone was an extremely important invention, it was many years before the significance of Bell's work was fully recognized. Bell's original photophone failed to protect transmissions from outside interferences, such as clouds, that easily disrupted transport. Until the development of modern fiber optics, technology for the secure transport of light inhibited use of Bell's invention. Bell's photophone is recognized as the progenitor of the modern fiber optics that today transport over eight percent of the world's telecommunications

12/4/2012 | 10:22:14 PM
re: Solution for the Fiber Glut: Turn It Off?
I am 100% with you on this.. there is only
small minority people into broadband. Most
of bay area geeks (including their children)
eat and shit broadband, because their companies
are paying for it. I can tell you if their
companies stopped paying for broadband access,
70% of them will not pay $50/month. Don't worry
they will also make their kids adjust to live on 56k. Infact the main reason for telecom downturn
was the over hyped DSL/Cable modem subscription growth that did not pick up as anticipated, essentially data revenues did not grow as anticipated. The price has to drop to $30/month
otherwise it can take years for people to
afford $50/month internet service. Signifcant
cost of leasing T1/T3/OC3 lines price drops has also killed data service revenue growth. However
the interesting part is that residential end user
is not seeing the benefit yet from these drops.
Nor are the carriers, as cost of these next generation boxes is still very high.
Broadband will boom as the optical industry
matures and production cost drop significantly.
For instance the optical transponders cost like 5k to 10k a peice, this needs to drop to 1k-2k a peice or lower. This will all happen in next two to three years, as lot of these optical components start to get commoditized (manufacturing shifting to China etc), hey just like the Chip industry.
Carriers will be able to buy next generation boxes for almost half the price of current prices. So revenue being the same (as voice and
data ckt prices ain't going much lower), the cost of new equiptment drops to half, much easier
for carriers to upgrade and realize significant
cost reductions.
Then the business model will start to make sense, and carriers can offer $30/month broadband service or lower.
12/4/2012 | 10:22:13 PM
re: Solution for the Fiber Glut: Turn It Off?
there is only small minority people into broadband. Most of bay area geeks (including their children) eat and shit broadband, because their companies are paying for it.

You assumptions are wrong. Below are more accurate assertions.

o Nobody has real broadband, only a small portion have always-on.
o Always-on changes from a want to a need under two conditions
1) When someone leaves corporate America and they try to replace what they became used to in their cube
2) Internet access conflicts arise between family members and internet sharing becomes a requirement. This tends to remain rare when email is the primary use of home internet. Note: Many family members do fight over what TV show to watch. The average of 1 mailbox and 4 TV sets per home is revealing.
o An average working person won't pay $30 for always-on. The price needs to drop to about $5 before the masses will adopt.
o An average american would pay $30 for real broadband, assuming there is a viable content industry using that network for bit distribution.

Too bad the telcos control the wrong network built under the wrong assumptions. It's their fault and they don't deserve a government bail out.
12/4/2012 | 10:22:09 PM
re: Solution for the Fiber Glut: Turn It Off?

to get around the Telcos?

I hate to go back to it ... but this last mile thing seems to always come back. I guess the panacea is last mile technology which allows anyone to bypass the entire annoying problem.

So what is the status of wireless options? I know there were some in the bay area using the Sprint stuff (line of sight) across the bay. But I heard that's going away.

Any new wireless technologies looking promissing?

12/4/2012 | 10:22:05 PM
re: Solution for the Fiber Glut: Turn It Off?
to get around the Telcos?

The Connectivity 2002 conference, starting tomorrow in Boston, may be of interest.


It would be nice if a webcasts at an affordable price were made available.

12/4/2012 | 10:21:56 PM
re: Solution for the Fiber Glut: Turn It Off?
Why would you be imaging in the supply chain? By that time, all the specs should be rock-solid and it should just be a part number. I agree imaging could be very useful in the design phase, but all that EDI supply chain stuff, where the big volumes of text data come from, is automated. A computer MRP program doesn't care what the part looks like, it just needs a stored BOM and work orders to figure out what it can make when. Maybe if you're ordering 1-time parts that could be useful, but most parts are reordered 1000s of times.
12/4/2012 | 10:21:54 PM
re: Solution for the Fiber Glut: Turn It Off?

dave7s wrote:

Why would you be imaging in the supply chain?


ECOs for one. One change can affect the entire chain.

Also, what if your design group is geographically dispersed? Some global companies want to be able to design any product with any design group. This enables them to leverage the best resources at any point in time, not just when the "local" group is available.

Combine those two and lets say you're building manufacturing equipment and you've got a lot of traffic. A lot of it automatic.
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