RHK: Rest in Pieces

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DZED 12/5/2012 | 3:09:38 AM

re: RHK: Rest in Pieces "We have a lot of analysts who are great at linear prediction of the future based on the past"

Its even worse than that, they were predicting EXPONENTIAL growth based on three closely space data points.

Remember the internet 'doubling every 100 days'? (Is that what Worldcom said, not too sure now..)

Why did no-one see through this guff?

It was patently obvious DWDM was not going to happen based on the small amount of FTTH really going on.

Why would the world need 120x10=1200Gbps pipes when consumers would be on copper for the forseeable future?

In my area we saw orders for access components dry up, but DWDM was still going great? It was so obvious, how could RHK not see it?

I made these points at the time, although not to Lightreading.

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rjmcmahon 12/5/2012 | 3:09:38 AM

re: RHK: Rest in Pieces Before I can comment, however, I need to educate myself about if the above is true. There are competing technologies available. I'd like to learn what technologies Hong Kong or Japan uses for their Gbs connections. Are they offering to homes directly on Fiber? What kind of computer the end users have to utilize this Gbs signal and what technology enables such use? (forgive my ignorance).

Unfortunately, I can't speak for what is true so I can't help with that. I can recommend using http://www.google.com and the site command such as

"site:convergedigest.com last mile hong kong"
"site:convergedigest.com fiber japan"
"site:broadbandreports.com usa fallling behind"

as a mechanism for getting more perspectives.

My only point is an appropriate technology (i.e., one that is available, cheaper, easily deployable and maintainable, etc.) can alleviate/remove other hurdles.

I hear and understand your point.

Here's another hypothetical. If an important sector of an economy is experiencing market failure and municipal, state, or federal government do nothing about it (or worse, are part of the problem) and the tools you mention don't really help too much, what's next?

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DZED 12/5/2012 | 3:09:36 AM

re: RHK: Rest in Pieces This is the closest (and only) example I know of.

http://securities.stanford.edu...
http://securities.stanford.edu...

GS used their own internal analysts to plug the shares.

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Peter Heywood 12/5/2012 | 3:09:36 AM

re: RHK: Rest in Pieces In the bubble years, there were lots of rumors of market research companies asking and even insisting on being paid in stock for providing upbeat quotes in product press releases etc.

Does anybody have any first hand experience of this?

If so, let me know by either posting on this board or contacting me privately on [email protected]

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Scott Raynovich 12/5/2012 | 3:09:35 AM

re: RHK: Rest in Pieces I want to go on the record as declaring the housing investment bubble will end March 1, 2006.

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fgoldstein 12/5/2012 | 3:09:34 AM

re: RHK: Rest in Pieces sr> I want to go on the record as declaring the housing investment bubble will end March 1, 2006.

You're late. I call it for May 1, 2005. At least up here.

BTW the Greenspan article was good reading, and hit the nail on the head when it noted that there was a lot of "investment" money coming in while there were few new productive assets to invest in, so things got bid up. A parallel was the term "drilling for oil on Wall St.", wherein the oil companies bought each other up because it was a safer bet than actually producing more.

My cow-orkers and I saw the tech bubble for what it was, noting the nutty "investments" that were being proposed. I also date it bursting at November, 2000. It may or may not have been coincidental with the discovery that the election was being stolen in Florida. The Meldtown took the next two years, as service providers and their suppliers lined up at the courthouse.

Housing: It's insane. But it's hitting real resistance. A house in my city went on the market for $1.275M in February. (Some say it was initially 1.4M.) Not a bad house, but no mansion, just a nice old 9/5/3 colonial with finished attic and basement on a 9ksf city lot, semi-busy street. By early June it was down to 1.075M, and this week it's at $999k. The owner's desperate, having retired and moved out already. That price range is roughly the mode here, with dozens of houses in the $1-1.4M range, and they're not moving easily. Cheaper properties have more potential buyers so if they're priced right they still move, but the mood has swung.

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5514DD 12/5/2012 | 3:09:34 AM

re: RHK: Rest in Pieces Scott (or others),

Care to go one step further and declare how far we'll see housing prices fall?

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Scott Raynovich 12/5/2012 | 3:09:33 AM

re: RHK: Rest in Pieces >Scott, for your housing bubble prediction: all >regions at once? Or a domino effect? This a US >only prediction?

Housing: I've been reading and studying this a lot about this lately. I have the added bonus of having R.E. pros in my extended family.

My leading housing bubble indicators are: Folks prattling on about real estate gains at cocktail parties (much like they touted gains in Gilder stocks in 1999); relatives offering condo-flipping investment opportunities; ugly-ass giant McMansions in the most uncanny places (like, on top of steaming trash heap or built on stilts in a swamp -- but hey, it's got granite counters!).

Australia and the UK have already eased off, and they were leaders in the global housing market. So they may be the leading indicators. I've read stuff that says Sydney, Australia is off 10-15% in the first year of their decline -- that may be the model.

Here in the U.S., I would imagine where there has been the most speculative excess there is the most risk (both coasts). For most people, if you've owned a house a while and built equity, it's not a problem, but for the speculators and overleveraged pretenders who are buying or building on spec with interest-only loans, it will be a bloodbath. For example, I can imagine brand-new unsold McMansions in IPOville, Calif. falling 25% or more.

If you live in Detroit, Mich., absolutely nothing has changed nor will change.

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Kevin Mitchell 12/5/2012 | 3:09:33 AM

re: RHK: Rest in Pieces Scott, for your housing bubble prediction: all regions at once? Or a domino effect? This a US only prediction?

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Kevin Mitchell 12/5/2012 | 3:09:33 AM

re: RHK: Rest in Pieces Re: Nov 2000

Talking about difficulty in forecasting, wasn't John Chambers still talking in Dec 2000 how Cisco were going ahead with the same growth predictions and they didn't seem any disuption. This is a company to tightly wound up with the channels and visibility into customer activity and they clearly got it wrong. In part, perhaps, due to all the money they were giving CLECs to buy their gear...sure, the contracts are still on, cuz we're paying for them!!

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